Better Collective A/S,
Sankt Annæ Plads 28, 1250 Kobenhavn K,
Denmark (DK)
Phone: +45-29919965
Email: [email protected]
CVR/Org.nr: 27652913
basketball | Tuesday, February 21, 2023 10:33 AM (Revised at: Wednesday, February 22, 2023 2:13 PM)
NBA 2022/23 Mid-Season Betting Recap: Who Were the Most Profitable Betting Teams?
Milan Stanojic
3
The NBA regular season is already two-thirds done, and with the All-Star break in full effect this week, it’s time to take a look back at what our 30 beloved teams have been doing, more precisely, how much profit they have been making. I know you are probably used to just clicking on an article, getting your free value best bet for the day and moving on, but today it’s time to do some homework.
Today, we will look at the most and least profitable teams in the moneyline market, against the spread and in the Over/Under. Finally, we’ll be talking about some recent trends in the league you may want to know.
In this article:
Moneyline
Whilst the moneyline isn’t my favourite market by a long shot, there is some nice value to be found if you know where to look. Here are the top 5 best and worst teams in the market so far in the season.
Top 5
| Team Name | Win | Loss | Units | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orlando Magic | 24 | 35 | 16.95 | 26.69 % |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 28 | 29 | 17.7 | 24.58 % |
| Denver Nuggets | 41 | 18 | 15.25 | 9.85 % |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 41 | 17 | 10.95 | 7.29 % |
| New York Knicks | 33 | 27 | 5.4 | 6.02 % |
You are currently looking at the most profitable teams in the moneyline market ranked based on the return on investment. You may have wondered why our writers have been backing the Orlando Magic a lot this season, so there’s your answer. Yes, they are only 13th in the Eastern Conference with a 24-35 record, but the odds next to their name have been way off and punters could have made a lot of money backing them this year, especially if you pick your battles.
The OKC Thunder are once again proving why they are not a team to be overlooked. Last year they were the second-best teams against the spread, and this year they are 2nd-best in the moneyline. What’s more, they’ve actually made a massive leap in winning percentage, jumping from 29.3% last year to almost 50% in 2022/23. The rest of the teams on our list don’t really come as a surprise given they all have winning records, but the Knicks are sneaking in 5th place with just 5.4 units of profit.
Bottom 5
| Team Name | Win | Loss | Units | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Rockets | 13 | 45 | -16.7 | -28.16 % |
| San Antonio Spurs | 14 | 45 | -13.45 | -22.55 % |
| Golden State Warriors | 29 | 29 | -26.2 | -19.63 % |
| Detroit Pistons | 15 | 44 | -12.1 | -19.41 % |
| Charlotte Hornets | 17 | 43 | -12.2 | -18.64 % |
Not much to say here. It surely doesn’t come as a surprise that the worst 5 teams in the market are all bottom-feeders in their respective conferences. However, the Golden State Warriors are 9th in the Western Conference with a 29-29 record. Due to injury issues, the Warriors have had a very up-and-down season, but due to their reputation as a winning team along with their status as defending champions, bookmakers and punters have been overestimating them all season. So, if you’re thinking about backing the Dubs when NBA action tips off again on Thursday night – reconsider.
Against The Spread
The handicap market is one of the most popular when it comes to NBA betting and for good reason. You can find tons of betting value backing undervalued teams throughout the season. But who have been the best and worst teams in the league so far against the spread?
Top 5
| Team Name | Win | Loss | Push | Units | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 36 | 21 | 0 | 13.00 | 20.75 % |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 34 | 23 | 0 | 8.65 | 13.78 % |
| Orlando Magic | 33 | 24 | 2 | 6.65 | 10.25 % |
| Milwaukee Bucks | 32 | 24 | 2 | 5.60 | 8.78 % |
| Boston Celtics | 32 | 26 | 1 | 3.40 | 5.25 % |
Surprise! The OKC Thunder are the GOAT when it comes to betting on the NBA in the last 2 seasons! Despite only having 2 wins more than the second-placed 76ers ATS, the Thunder are by far in first place with a 4.35-unit advantage and a whopping +20.75% ROI! Again, the Orlando Magic have no business being this good against the spread, ranking 3rd in the NBA in this market and bringing in a cool 10.25% profit.
It doesn’t come as a surprise that the 76ers, Bucks and Celtics are among the top 5 seeing as how they are the top 3 teams in the east, but do you see something strange? None of the top 9 teams in the west have made the list! To be fair, the Nuggets have the exact same record as the Celtics but are sitting in 6th place due to a 0.01% difference in ROI.
Bottom 5
| Team Name | Win | Loss | Push | Units | ROI% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 21 | 36 | 3 | -18.55 | -28.13 % |
| Miami Heat | 22 | 35 | 2 | -16.5 | -25.42 % |
| Houston Rockets | 22 | 33 | 3 | -14.3 | -22.41 % |
| San Antonio Spurs | 24 | 35 | 0 | -14.5 | -22.34 % |
| Charlotte Hornets | 25 | 33 | 2 | -11.3 | -17.13 % |
Dun dun duuuuun! The Dallas Mavericks have been the worst team against the spread up until the All-Star break. With the worst record in the league of 21-36-3, they are 19 units in the red and almost -30% ROI. The departure of Jalen Brunson was expected to create some difficulties for the Mavs, but they have been struggling way more than the bookmakers, and the rest of us, expected. That said, the arrival of Kyrie Irving should help this team get their legs back on the offensive end, but defence will likely continue to be an issue.
You may be surprised to see the Miami Heat as the second-worst team, but if you think about it, it makes sense. They are 7th in the east with a 32-27 record, but as the 27th-ranked offence and the lowest-scoring team in the league, the Heat struggle to cover.
The Totals
Whether you’re down on your luck in other markets or you just love to bet on totals, this market will always be there to give you some value. We’ve found a lot of it in this market historically, earning a +33.8% ROI! But, what is the situation like this season, and which teams have been profitable to put your money on this season?
Over
The Over is a very popular bet these days, especially during the regular season where we don’t see very much defence being played, paired with a lot of explosive scorers and deadeye shooters the NBA has to offer. Here are the top 5 teams whose games frequently go over the total points line.
| Team | Over | Under | Push | Over Units | Over ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Golden State Warriors | 35 | 22 | 1 | 10.8 | 16.93 % |
| Philadelphia 76ers | 33 | 24 | 0 | 6.6 | 10.53 % |
| San Antonio Spurs | 33 | 24 | 2 | 6.6 | 10.17 % |
| Oklahoma City Thunder | 32 | 24 | 1 | 5.6 | 8.93 % |
| Toronto Raptors | 33 | 25 | 1 | 5.5 | 8.47 % |
By far the most profitable side here have been the Golden State Warriors. A combination of fast pace (1st in NBA), a potent offence (118.6 ppg) and a total disregard for playing defence (118.5) make this team a magnet for high-scoring encounters. The 76ers and Spurs come in 2nd and 3rd with 6.6 units of profit respectively. The OKC Thunder once again find themselves on a list of profitables with 5.6 units whilst the Raptors are 5th with a 33-25 record.
Under
As you might have expected, there isn’t too much betting value to be found during the regular season on the under, but there is some. Have a look at the top 5 teams whose games have gone under the total number of points the most.
| Team | Over | Under | Push | Under Units | Under ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bulls | 25 | 34 | 0 | 6.5 | 10.02 % |
| LA Clippers | 27 | 34 | 0 | 4.3 | 6.41 % |
| Miami Heat | 26 | 32 | 1 | 3.4 | 5.24 % |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 25 | 30 | 2 | 2.5 | 3.99 % |
| Cleveland Cavaliers | 28 | 33 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.28 % |
There you have it. The Chicago Bulls are the absolute kings of low-scoring games. They have had a lot of injury issues this season and with Lonzo Ball out for the rest of the season, it’s unlikely they will be able to bounce back. The Clippers, a team that struggles to score, plays slow and actually plays some nice defence, it’s really no surprise to see such numbers.
Trends to look out for
Finally, here are some notable betting trends to look out for when NBA action continues:
- The Milwaukee Bucks are on a 13-game winning streak, having covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games.
- Apart from the Bucks, the Celtics, Nuggets, 76ers, Nets and Cavaliers have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games
- The OKC Thunder have won 7 of their last 10 home games, earning a profit of 7 units and an ROI of +39.42%. They have also covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 road games.
- The New York Knicks are by far the most profitable road team in NBA, with a 17-12 record (+8.5 Units)
- The Philadelphia 76ers are the most profitable home side in the league this year. They have a 21-10 record, +10.0 units and a +29.33% ROI.
- The Celtics, Timberwolves, Kings and Warriors have gone over the total point line in 4 of their last 5 games
- Our NBA betting experts are some of the best in the business. They provide quality analysis, best bets, accumulators and bet builders on a daily basis. Best of all, they are currently at 10.6% ROI and completely free! Stay tuned for more!
Share article:
Like the article:
3
latest comments
No comments yet
