NBA Best Bets: Monday, March 28th

With just 8 games left in the NBA regular season, the playoff seeding battle is heating up. We have 9 games scheduled for tonight, and I’ve found 2 high-value bets for you. The Cleveland Cavaliers take on the Orlando Magic at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse, and the Miami Heat welcome the Sacramento Kings to FTX Arena. Take a look at my analysis & let me know if you agree.

NBA Best Bets Monday, March 28th

• Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic: Magic +9.5 at 1.94
• Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings: Kings +13.0 at 1.91

Odds as at 3 pm March 28th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs Orlando Magic Best Bet

Tue, Mar 29. 00:30 (UK)

The Cleveland Cavaliers started the season as the success story of the year, coming out as one of the best teams ATS in the league, and sitting 3rd in the conference standings. But the situation has turned around and they are now 7th in the standings, riding a 3-game losing streak, having failed to cover the spread in 7 of their last 10. They are coming off a 94-98 home loss against the Chicago Bulls, and J. B. Bickerstaff’s squad is facing a play-in appearance if they don’t get their act together. Jarret Allen is still out with a finger injury and the team is in desperate need of his interior defence.

Although Darius Garland is having an amazing season for the Cavs, averaging 21.5 points and 8.6 assists per game, they need another reliable scoring option with Evan Mobley still developing his offensive game as a rookie. The Cavs have ranked 16th in offensive and 22nd in defensive rating over the last 5 games, whilst allowing 114.2 points per game. The Cavs like to play slow and get their points off half-court sets, but their 13 turnovers per game and their 11.5 three-pointers per game won’t be getting them to the finals any time soon. They are heavy favourites in this one at 1.22 odds to win, and with 95% of bettors backing them, it’s simply not worth it.

On the other side, the Orlando Magic have ad a nightmare season so far, sitting 15th in the conference standings with just 20 wins and 52 losses. They have won 4 of their last 10 games, and are coming off a respectable 114-110 loss to the Sacramento Kings. Their road record this year is terrible at 10-28, but they’ve been very good against the spread, covering in 55.6% of their games as away underdogs. Although Jalen Suggs will miss this game with an ankle injury, the rest of their core players will be fit to play. They lost their first encounter of the season against the Cavs by 105-92, but that was when the Cavs were rocking and rolling, and I’m expecting a much different result this time around.

The Magic have managed to find their game slightly, racking up some wins and starting to cover the spread. They are taking advantage of the sluggishness of most of the teams in the league to salvage what they can. Although their offence is still as terrible as always, ranking 29th in the NBA this season, they have improved their defensive effort, and have ranked 5th in defensive rating over the last 10 games. Not bad for a team that allowed 112 points per game all year. They will be facing a team that already has a very limited offensive game, and I see the 9.5 point spread as too high. The Magic are available at 4.50 odds to win tonight, but I’m backing them in the handicap market, which is where the real value is hiding.

• Selection: Magic +9.5
• Best Odds: 1.94 (Marathonbet)
• Stake: 8/10

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Miami Heat vs Sacramento Kings Best Bet

Tue, Mar 29. 00:30

The Miami Heat have finally been dethroned from the top of the eastern conference by the Boston Celtics, having lost 4 games in a row, as well as 6 of their last 10. This team is in serious trouble. Despite not having any major injury issues, they simply can’t get themselves together due to serious chemistry issues. They are still heavy favourites to win this game at 1.10 odds, but even when they were in their best form, this wouldn’t have been a good bet. The Heat have an impressive home record of 26-12, but they have covered the spread in just 42.4% of their games as home favourites – good for 24th in the league.

The Miami Heat are already the 2nd-slowest team in the NBA with a pace rating of 95.7, and 28th in field-goal attempts at just 85.0 per game. This makes them a very bad team to back for blowout victories, especially given the fact they have ranked 23rd in offensive rating over the last 10 games. Their offensive rating has plummeted from 105.0 in February to 113.0 in the last 10, whilst their defence has also seen a drop in form, allowing 109.3 points per game. This looks nothing like the team we have gotten used to seeing earlier this season, and with Jimmy Butler still struggling to make shots, Eric Spoelstra’s side is looking terrible heading into the playoffs.

The Sacramento Kings are having yet another losing season this year, sitting in 13th place in the west with just 27 wins and 48 losses, and no hopes of reaching the playoffs. They’ve won just 3 of their last 10 games, but have improved their form, winning their last 2 games against the Magic and Pacers. Although these wins weren’t exactly against the best competition, they have provided a much-needed confidence boost for their upcoming game. Although Fox, Sabonis and Holmes are all out with injuries, the 13.0 point handicap against a struggling Heat team is a very achievable target for the Kings.

Not a lot of good things we can say about the Sacramento Kings this year, ranking 23rd in offensive and 28th in defensive rating. Their offence is still very much ineffective, but their defence has improved somewhat, ranking 18th over the last 10 games. They are also one of the fastest teams in the league at the moment, with a pace rating of 100.07 over the last 10. This can be a very useful tool against the slow-paced Miami Heat, who attempt very few shots per game, and are not made for blowout wins. Only 13% of bettors are backing the Kings to win tonight, and whilst it may actually happen, I am much happier backing them in the handicap market.

• Selection: Kings +13.0
• Best Odds: 1.91 (Unibet)
• Stake: 7/10

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