NBA Best Bets: Wednesday, April 6th

Only a couple of games left in the NBA regular season and with some teams are already thinking about the playoffs, I’m looking for value betting against them. The Suns have already secured the top seed in the west whilst the Jazz are heavy favourites against the notorious OKC Thunder. Take a look at my picks and analysis below.

NBA Best Bets Wednesday, April 6th

• Utah Jazz vs OKC Thunder: Thunder +17.0 at 1.94 
• LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns: Clippers to Win at 2.38

Odds as at 2 pm April 6th. Odds may now differ.

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Utah Jazz vs OKC Thunder Best Bet

Thu, Apr 7. 02:00 (UK)

The Utah Jazz have climbed back to 6th place in the west following their 121-115 victory over the Memphis Grizzlies and are now sitting atop the Northwest division by half a game. But they’ve won just 4 of their last 10 games, whilst covering the spread in just 2. Rudy Gobert was their main man against the Grizz, scoring 22 points, whilst Mitchell and Clarkson also pitched in with 20 apiece. It was a very poor shooting night, as they shot just 41.7% from the field and 31.6% from beyond the arc.

The Utah Jazz have been surprisingly average recently, and their form coming into the playoffs is concerning. They had the best-ranked offence in the league all season, but they have dropped to 19th place in the league in the last 10 games. Their defence has also been mediocre in that time frame, ranking 11th in defensive rating and allowing 110.1 points per game. The Jazz are coming into this game as heavy favourites at 1.04 odds to win, whilst the spread is set at 17.0 points. Even if their form was half decent, I would still look at this spread as too high and back the underdog.

But the OKC Thunder are no regular underdog. They have won their last 2 games against the Suns and Trail Blazers, and have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games. The Thunder are coming off a close 98-94 win against the Portland Trail Blazers where Jaylen Hoard went off for 24 points and 21 rebounds. The Thunder are still sitting 14th in the west with 24 wins and 55 losses, but there’s a good reason why I keep backing them against the spread.

The OKC Thunder are by far the best road team ATS this season, covering in 71.1% of their games. Despite being one of the youngest and most injured teams in the league, they continue to play their best game and cover almost every night. Although their offence is still among the worst in the league, this team has played solid defence in the late stages of the season. They have ranked 7th in defensive rating over the last 10 games, whilst keeping opponents to just 33.1% from beyond the arc and 45.1% from the field. I don’t expect the Thunder to even come close to winning this game, but the 17-point spread is simply too high to ignore, and I have no problem backing them again in this market.

• Selection: Thunder +17.0
• Best Odds: 1.94 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 9/10

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LA Clippers vs Phoenix Suns Best Bet

Thu, Apr 7. 03:00 (UK)

The Los Angeles Clippers are 8th in the western conference with 39 and 40 losses, and riding a 2 game winning streak. They have won just 4 of their last 10 but are coming off a blowout 119-100 victory over the New Orleans Pelicans. It was a very balanced team effort that brought them victory in that game with a tally of 33 assists and a 3-point percentage of 47.7%. Ty Lue and the Clippers are pinned to 8th place until the end of the season, but they will likely be playing against Minnesota in the play-in tournament, and it’s very important they keep their form up – so no load management allowed.

The Clippers have recovered nicely after what can only be described as an average season, and they are now one of the best offensive teams in the league. They have ranked 2nd in offensive rating over the last 5 games, whilst averaging 124.0 points per game. The return of Paul George has been a needed boost to their offensive game and even their subpar defence has improved in their last 2 games, ranking 11th in defensive rating. The Clippers have covered the spread in 3 of their last 4 games, and with the spread tonight set at just 3 points, I might as well trust them to get the home win.

Monty Williams and the Phoenix Suns have done an amazing job cruising through the regular season and holding on to the top seed in the west. With 63 wins and 16 losses, they have an 8-game safety cushion and can allow themselves to rest their stars, which is exactly what they have been doing. Ayton, Booker and Paul have played lower minutes in their recent games, even in their 121-110 victory over the Lakers. Devin Booker was their leading scorer in that game with 32 points in just 30 minutes, whilst Ayton followed with 22 points in 27 minutes.

The Suns have fallen to 29th place in offensive rating over the last 5 games, and have lost their 2 games against the Thunder and Grizzlies. Their defence has also been shaky, allowing 111.2 points per game, compared to their season average of 107.2. I expect Monty Williams to have his star players on a minutes restriction in this game, and to give their bench players increased playing time coming into the playoffs. It’s a good time to bet against the Suns – they have nothing to play for at the moment, and are looking to avoid injuries heading into the playoffs. I’m backing the Clippers to take the home victory at 2.38 odds.

• Selection: Clippers to Win
• Best Odds: 2.38 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 6/10

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