NBA Best Bets: Wednesday, March 16th

Another interesting Wednesday evening in the NBA with a total of 12 games to keep us occupied. I’ve got 4 of my best bets ready for tonight, and the value is excellent, which is why I’m coming in with some solid stakes.

NBA Best Bets Wednesday, March 16th

• Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks: Over 237.5 at 1.92 odds
• New York Knicks vs Portland Trail Blazers: Blazers +11.0 at 1.91 odds
• San Antonio Spurs vs OKC Thunder: Thunder +14.0 at 1.93 odds
• Boston Celtics vs Golden State Warriors: Warriors -3.0 at 1.92 odds

Odds as at 2 pm March 16th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Charlotte Hornets vs Atlanta Hawks Best Bet

Wed, March 16. 23:00 (UK time)

The Charlotte Hornets are 10th in the eastern conference with 34 wins and 35 losses and are still fighting for a playoff spot. They have been one of the best attacking teams in the league, averaging 114.9 points per game (2nd in NBA), and ranking 4th in offensive rating in the last 10 games. They have 7 different players averaging more than 10 points per game, and they have been lethal from beyond the arc, draining 36.2% of their 3-pointers.

But just like last season, they are a terrible defensive side and are consistently ranking among the worst defences in the NBA. They are allowing 114.9 points per game this year, good for 28th in the league, as well as ranking 25th in defensive rating in their last 5 games. 4 of their last 5 games have gone over due to their lacklustre defensive effort, and I expect more of the same in this one.

But the Hawks are no different. Their offence has really reached a new peak this year, averaging 112.9 points per game and ranking 2nd in offensive rating. They’ve also been draining a lot of their three-pointers this year, netting a percentage of 37.0% from beyond the arc, as well as a top 5 free-throw percentage of 80.9%. Trae Young is their top offensive player with 28.3 points per game, but they also have 8 more players averaging 10 points or more all season.

That said, the Hawks are also a dismal defensive side, allowing 112.1 points per game this year, and ranking 27th in defensive rating. We have two very exciting offensive teams tonight, but let’s face it, there isn’t much value in backing either side – they are far too unreliable. But one thing we can rely on is their lack of defensive effort and their tunnel-vision focus on coring. I expect a very high scoring game tonight, going well over the 237.5 point mark.

• Selection: Over 237.5
• Best odds: 1.92 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 8/10

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New York Knicks vs Portland Trail Blazers Best Bet

Wed, March 16.  23:30 (UK time)

The New York Knicks are having a very difficult year following their success in the 2020/21 regular season that saw them finishing 4th in the eastern conference. They are now 12th in the east with just 28 wins and 40 losses already, having won just 3 of their last 10 games. Their offence has been atrocious this year, averaging just 105.9 points per game, good for 27th in the NBA, and ranking 23rd in the league in offensive rating.

Julius Randle is their top scorer with 20.5 points per game, but his efficiency is nowhere near last season’s, and the Knicks are dead last in the league in assists with just 21.5 per game. Their form has improved slightly recently, with respectable performances against the Nets, Grizzlies and Suns, but this team simply isn’t built to get blowout wins, which is why the 11.0 point spread is a bit high.

Meanwhile, the Portland Trail Blazers are also down in the dumps in the western conference, sitting in 11th place with 26 wins and 41 losses. They’ve won just 3 of their last 7 games, and are coming off a 122-113 loss against the Atlanta Hawks. But with their top scorers in Lillard and Simons out, Josh Hart has emerged as a surprising scoring option in the last few games, and the team has covered the spread in their last 2 games.

Let’s face it, this team is one of the worst in the league at the moment, but their underdog status has given bettors some solid value, and 1 double-digit handicap is a very useful weapon against teams that struggle to score like the Knicks. In fact, the Blazers won their first encounter of the season against the Knicks by 12-103, and with both teams facing some serious injury issues coming into the game, anything can happen. The Blazers are one of the top teams in the NBA against the spread as away underdogs, covering in 60.9% of their games, and I’m backing them to cover again tonight.

• Selection: Blazers +11.0
• Best odds: 1.91 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 7/10

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San Antonio Spurs vs OKC Thunder Best Bet

Thu, March 17. 00:30 (UK time)

The San Antonio Spurs are heavy favourites tonight, available at 1.08 odds and 86% of bettors backing them to win. But the Spurs are 12th in the western conference standings with 26 wins and 43 losses, having won just 3 of their last 10 games. They have ranked 21st in offensive, as well as 19th in defensive rating in the last 5 games, and are coming off a 149-139 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves. Yes, you read it well. Karl Anthony-Towns went off for 60 points and 17 rebounds, and the Spurs almost allowed 150 points in a game without overtime.

So, we can agree that giving them a -14.0 point handicap in the very next game might be a bit of a reach. The Spurs aren’t that good, and although Dejounte Murray is having a terrific season for them, averaging 20.8 points and 9.4 assists per game, they can only really provide value as underdogs and not heavy favourites.

Meanwhile, the OKC Thunder are still the top road team against the spread this season, covering in 66.7% of their games. They are definitely a struggling young team with some key players in Josh Giddey and Lu Dort out with injury, but their top scorer Shai Gilgeous-Alexander could make his return tonight. The Thunder are in desperate need of a scoring option, and he is the perfect candidate, averaging 24.2 points and almost 6 assists per game.

This team has been surprisingly solid defensively this year, ranking 17th in defensive rating and grabbing 7.7 steals per game. The Thunder have provided a lot of betting value throughout the season, and the 14 point spread should be enough to get them over the edge.

• Selection: OKC Thunder +14.0
• Best odds: 1.93 (Unibet)
• Stakes: 8/10

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Golden State Warriors vs Boston Celtics Best Bet

Thu, March 17. 02:00 (UK time)

The Golden State Warriors have bounced back after their mid-season slump having won 4 games in a row, and welcoming back Draymond Green back into their lineup. They are rating 4th in offensive rating in the last 5 games, and their defence has also improved. The Warriors are slowly getting back to their status as one of the best defensive sides in the NBA. They have averaged just 105.0 points allowed per game, and their perimeter defence has been elite this year, keeping opponents to just 33.8% from behind the 3-point line.

But the Warriors are most known for their offensive potency and with an average of 11.6 points per game on 40.0% 3-point shooting. They have been the 4th best team ATS at home, covering the spread in 58.8% of their games, as well as in all of their last 5 games. The Warriors are more than capable of getting hot in a hurry and leaving opponents in the dust, and there is a very good chance of that happening tonight.

The Boston Celtics have been in terrific form recently, winning 7 of their last 10 games, and climbing to 5th place in the eastern conference. They have ranked 7th in both offensive and defensive rating in the last 5 games, and have allowed just 103.9 points per game this season. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have been excellent this year, averaging 26.8 and 22.9 points per game respectively.

But the Celtics aren’t built to be successful against a team like the Warriors. They are one of the slowest teams in the league, ranking 27th in pace rating in the last 5 games, whereas the Warriors are 17th. Their 3-point percentage is at 34.3%, good for 23rd place in the NBA, and they haven’t fared too well on the road, winning 17 of their 33 games. The Celtics lost their first encounter of the season against the Warriors by 111-107, and I’m expecting an even bigger difference this time around.

• Selection: Warriors -3.0
• Best odds: 1.92 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 10/10

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