NBA Best Bets: Wednesday March 2nd

Another Wednesday night, another edition of the NBA Best Bets. We have 8 games on the list for tonight, but these two selections are the best bets of the bunch, and I’m using solid stakes for both. The Miami heat and OKC Thunder have been tearing it up against the spread on the road, so let’s hope they continue to provide value.

NBA Best Bets Tuesday, March 2nd:

• Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat: Heat +4.5 at 1.92 (Unibet)
• Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder: Thunder +13.5 at 1.93 (Marathonbet)

Odds as at 2 pm March 2nd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Best Bet

Tue, Mar 3. 01:00 (UK)

The Milwaukee Bucks are 4th in the eastern conference and 4 games behind the top. They have won 6 of their last 10 games and are coming off a 130-106 beatdown victory against the Charlotte Hornets. Even though their play has been more or less the same at home and on the road, their record ATS is terrible at home at 36.4%, as opposed to 51.7% on the road. And despite averaging 113.6 points per game on solid shooting numbers, their defence has been subpar, ranking 23rd in the NBA in the last 10 games. The Bucks tend to get overrated when playing at home, and bettors rush to back them. Tonight, 75% of punters are picking them to win, and the +4.5 point spread is looking very tempting on Miami.

The Miami Heat are still sitting atop the eastern conference, and with wins in their last 10 games, it doesn’t seem like they are ready to give up the top seed anytime soon. The Heat play slow, but their efficient offence still makes sure they average 109.5 points per game with 25.7 assists (6th in NBA) and has ranked 6th in the league in offensive rating in the last 3 games. Their defence has also been one of the best in the league, allowing just 104.7 points whilst forcing 15.5 turnovers per game. They have also ranked 2nd in the NBA in defensive rating in the last 10 games, The Heat play well both on the road and at home, but their record ATS on the road has been terrific, covering the spread in 60.6% of their games. The Heat have consistently been solid on both sides of the floor, and to have them as underdogs in a road game is always a value bet.

• Selection: Heat +4.5
• Best Odds: 1.92 (Unibet)
• Stakes: 8/10

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Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder Best Bet

Tue, Mar 3.  02:00 (UK)

The Denver Nuggets are sitting 6th in the western conference with 36 wins and 25 losses, and are riding a 6-game winning streak. Their play in the last 10 games has been more than respectable, ranking 11th in offensive and 5th in defensive rating, and winning 8 of those games. But the one thing that has plagued this team this season is a lack of consistency, especially at home. Despite winning 63.0% of their home games this year (11th in the league), they have covered the spread in just 40.7%, putting them in the bottom half of the league in that regard. Yes, they have covered the spread in 7 of their last 10 games, but it was usually a single-digit number, as opposed to -13.5 like tonight. It’s much better to back them on the road where they actually have a positive record, and with 89% of bettors backing them tonight, it’s best to stay away.

But the Oklahoma City Thunder continue to be a cheat code against the spread this season, and I have no intention of ceasing to back them, especially on the road. With a record of 21-10-0 in away games ATS this year, the Thunder are the 2nd-best team in the league, bested only by the Memphis Grizzlies by 2 games. The Thunder are 4th in defensive in their last 10 road games, and despite their offensive struggles, they are always worth backing. Although they’ve only won 10 of their 31 road games this year, they are always huge underdogs and there is a lot of value in backing them in the handicap market. The spread is set at a too-high 13.5 points, and the Thunder are huge underdogs once again at 8.00 odds to win. Only 11% of bettors are backing them to win tonight, and I have no problem picking them once again.

• Selection: OKC Thunder +13.5
• Best Odds: 1.93 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 8/10

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