basketball | Monday, October 17, 2022 11:51 AM (Revised at: Tuesday, October 18, 2022 1:47 PM)

NBA 2022/23 Betting Value Report Cards

Milan Stanojic

What are the best outright bets for the upcoming NBA season? With the season right around the corner, we have ranked all 30 teams based on their betting value in the outright markets and against the spread.

HOW DO OUR NBA 2022/23 VALUE REPORT CARDS WORK?

The report cards reflect how we expect each NBA team to perform compared to bookmaker expectations. We are not ranking teams simply on how well we think they will perform this season. For example, a team may be favourites to win the title and they will almost certainly be in the mix come playoff time. But the question is, do that team’s odds to win the title represent any value?

We are looking for teams we think could surprise everyone, including the bookmakers, either by overperforming or underperforming against bookmaker expectations this season and give you the best return on your investment.

IT’S ALL ABOUT VALUE

A and B grades are the best of the value in NBA outright markets. A – grades are the NBA teams we think will outperform the market the most, while B grades we will also exceed market expectations.
C and D grades offer some value but we more or less consider bookmaker expectations for these teams as accurate. We see C grades marginally exceeding the market while D grades will perform just below market expectations.

E and F grades are the worst of the value. We see these teams significantly underachieving relative to bookmaker odds this NBA season. We recommend betting against these NBA clubs in outright markets.

Based on these value grades, we have listed the best bets for the upcoming NBA season at the end of this article.

All odds featured in this article are as listed at 18th October 2022. Odds may now differ.

So let’s get into it. The 2022/23 NBA Betting Value Report Cards.

In this article:

The A Grades
The B Grades
The C Grades
The D Grades
The E Grades
The F Grades
All 30 Best Bets

The A Grades

Memphis Grizzlies: A+

All the way down in 12th place to win the title this year, according to the bookmakers in all their wisdom are the Memphis Grizzlies at 23.00 odds. This young team finished 2nd in the west last year with a whopping 56 wins, smashing their 41.5 total win line. Unfortunately, after dispatching the Timberwolves in a 6-game series, the Grizz faced the Golden State Warriors in the conference semi-finals- and lost.

It was definitely a tough series, but the Warriors were eventually able to use their playoff experience and firepower to get the job done. The Grizzlies definitely showed that they are a force to be reckoned with last year, and it baffles me that the bookies are underestimating them so much now. Their total win line is at 48.5, and they have a solid chance to win the Southwest at 2.25.

The Grizzlies were THE best team against the spread last year, covering in 63.4% of their games, and the number only went up to 66% at home. They were a damn cheat code people, with betting value coming out their ears! Whilst I do expect the bookies to adjust at some point, backing the Grizz in either of the available markets is definitely a good idea.

Memphis Grizzlies Best Bet: Over 48.5 at 1.83 odds

The Grizzlies can and will get to 50 wins this season. They’re young, fast, exciting and they actually play defence, unlike some of the teams above them in the title race. Over 48.5 wins at 1.83 odds for Grizz nation is my best bet.

Memphis Grizzlies 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	23.00
To Win Conference	11.00
To Win Division	2.25
To Make Playoffs	1.14
Over 48.5 Wins	1.83
Under 48.5 Wins	1.95

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Golden State Warriors: A

The defending NBA champions are placed as second-favourites to repeat last year’s success at 7.50 odds. Their expected games total has gone up from 48.5 to 52.5, and their odds to win the conference have shortened from 6.50 to 4.00.

The Dubs were solid against bookie expectations last year, covering the spread in 54.5% of their games overall. But Steve Kerr and his boys really made Chase Center into a fortress, winning 31 of their 41 home games and covering the spread in 32. Their road performance wasn’t nearly as good. Sure, they had a positive record win of 22-19, but they only covered the spread in 44.9% of those games.

The Warriors have consistently been an example of excellence in the West in the past decade, making the playoffs in 8 seasons and winning 4 titles. They are a well-rounded team capable of performing both in regular season shootouts and extended playoff series. They were a top-3 defensive team last year, allowing just 105.5 points per game and keeping opponents to just 43.8% from the field and 33.9% from beyond the arc.

Golden State Warriors Best Bet: Over 52.5 wins at 1.88 odds

Let me be very clear, the Golden State Warriors are still a powerhouse and putting them anywhere but the top favourite spot guarantees you betting value. I’m not backing them to win the chip just because it’s a very specific bet, but Over 52.5 wins at 1.88 odds it is so much easier to pan out.

Golden State Warriors 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	7.50
To Win Conference	4.33
To Win Division	3.00
To Make Playoffs	1.01
Over 52.5 Wins	1.88
Under 52.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Denver Nuggets: A

Not much has changed for the Denver Nuggets since last year in terms of expectations, as the bookmakers have them to win the chip at 19.00 odds once again. But even without Murray and MPJ all season, they still managed to win 48 games, half a game shy of the set line, and Nikola Jokic went on to win his second MVP award.

Still, they were bounced in the first round of the playoffs as the 6th seed by the Warriors, winning just 1 game in the series. Their total win line has increased by just 1 game, whilst their odds to win the west are at 9.00. That said, the Nuggets are favoured to win the Northwestern division at 1.72 with their only serious competitor being the Minnesota Timberwolves.

But how good will they be and what can we expect? The Nuggets traded for Caldwell-Pope and Ish Smith this summer for Will Barton and Monte Morris. They will finally welcome Murray and MPJ back into their lineup this season, and I expect this team to exceed a lot of people’s expectations. Their offence should open up even more with 2 reliable scorers in the lineup, Aaron Gordon has emerged as an excellent wing defender, and not that their team is complete, they should be a solid contender in the west.

Denver Nuggets Best Bet: To win Northwest at 1.72 odds

I was going to back the Nuggets to go over 50 wins, but the 1.80 price isn’t too enticing. For just 8 cents cheaper, you can back them to win the Northwest, which is a very likely outcome. Nuggets to win the Northwest at 1.72 odds!

Denver Nuggets 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	19.00
To Win Conference	9.00
To Win Division	1.72
To Make Playoffs	1.16
Over 50.5 Wins	1.80
Under 50.5 Wins	1.96

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Phoenix Suns: A –

After a decade of missing the playoffs, the Phoenix Suns finally made it back in 2020/21 and made it all the way to the finals. However, they lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in 6 games, ending their title aspirations. They made another appearance last year but got bested by the Mavericks in a 7-game series.

With an A+ grade last year, the Suns were a terrific value team, going well over their 51.5-game win total, winning a whopping 64 games, and covering the spread in 53.7% of their games. Their performance against the spread at home wasn’t anything to write home about, but on the road they had a record of 27-20, accounting for 57.5% of their games and placing them 7th in the NBA in that regard.

The Suns were available at 17.00 odds to win the chip last year, and their odds have shortened to 10.00 for this season. They are 3rd in line to win the east at 5.00 odds and top contenders to win the Pacific at 2.25.

Phoenix Suns Best Bet: Over 52.5 at 1.92 odds

The Suns’ core roster hasn’t changed much since last season and frankly, it’s difficult to imagine them going all the way with this group. I still expect them to do very well during the regular season, win and cover the spread a lot. The bookies have them winning more than 52.5 games at 1.92 odds and that’s what I’m backing.

Phoenix Suns 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	10.00
To Win Conference	5.00
To Win Division	2.75
To Make Playoffs	1.01
Over 52.5 Wins	1.92
Under 52.5 Wins	1.84

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

The B Grades

Contributor: Zuma Press / Alamy Stock Photo

Toronto Raptors: B+

The Toronto Raptors were a big surprise last year, going well over their 36.5 wins line and making the playoffs at 3.25 odds. They won a staggering 48 games and grabbed the 5th seed in the east, trailing Philly at number 4 by 3 games.

The Raptors were a solid defensive side last year, ranking 10th in defensive rating, but their offence wasn’t up to par. They ranked 15th in offensive rating, but a meagre 109.4 points per game placed them 20th in the NBA in that regard. That said, Rookie of the Year Scottie Barnes is entering year 2, and I expect a significant improvement on his part.

With Fred Van Vleet, Annunoby and Siakam, this team can win in the east and I expect them to have the same number of wins as last season.

Toronto Raptors Best Bet: Over 46.5 at 1.88 odds

It’s going to be a tough season for the entire Atlantic division, and getting to 50 wins will be difficult. That said, the bookies give the Raptors 1.88 odds to go over 46.5, and this is something they can certainly pull off.

Toronto Raptors 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	41.00
To Win Conference	17.00
To Win Division	11.00
To Make Playoffs	1.37
Over 46.5 Wins	1.88
Under 46.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

New Orleans Pelicans: B+

It’s been a tough decade for the New Orleans Pelicans, with the Anthony Davis experiment not working out the way they had hoped, but after a three-year drought, they managed to get back into the playoff picture. Last season the Pels won 36 games and used the play-in tournament to their advantage, beating the LA Clippers and San Antonio Spurs to grab the 8th seed in the west. They faced the Phoenix Suns in the first round of the playoffs and took their opponents to 6 games – not bad for such a young team.

The Pelicans are heading into the new season with tons of potential to make a splash! After acquiring CJ McCollum, Larry Nance Jr. and Tony Snell last season, they will now welcome back Zion Williamson back into their roster. We all know what Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum can do, but Willy Hernangomez had a terrific Eurobasket performance for Spain, leading his team to the European title. He was pronounced the MVP of the tournament averaging 17.2 points and 6.9 per game.

The Pelicans had a lacklustre attacking performance last season, ranking 19th in offensive rating and averaging just 109.3 points per game. On the flip side, their defence allowed 110.3 points and an opponent field goal percentage of 36.5%. I expect Zion’s return to have a solid impact on this team on both sides of the floor, providing inside scoring, rebounding and a lot of energy on the floor. They have the offensive tools to have a great regular season, and I expect this team to win a lot more games this year.

The bookies have them to win the title at 41.00 odds, to win the west at 21.00, to make the playoffs at 1.61 and to win the Southwest at 4.00.

New Orleans Pelicans Best Bet: Over 43.5 at 1.71 odds

The bookmakers already have some high expectations for the Pels, and there’s not much value in backing them in most markets. That said, I do think they have a solid chance of making the playoffs this year, and that’s the outcome I’m backing at 1.67 odds.

New Orleans Pelicans 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	41.00
To Win Conference	21.00
To Win Division	4.00
To Make Playoffs	1.67
Over 43.5 Wins	1.71
Under 43.5 Wins	2.10

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Boston Celtics: B

The Boston Celtics have consistently made the playoffs since the 2007/08 season, with only one absence in 2013/14. Since their championship era, they’ve mostly seen exits in the conference semi-finals/finals. But last season, the Boston Celtics finished 2nd in the Eastern Conference and battled all the way to the NBA finals.

In fact, they were up 2-1 against the Warriors and leading by 5 at half-time in Game 4. But a late collapse in the 4th quarter at home caused them to lose the game by 10, and the series was tied. From that point on, the Warriors took the steering wheel and won the following 2 games by 10+ points, and secured their 4th title in the last 8 years.

So, are the Celtics worth backing and how did they fare against the bookies’ expectations last year? Well, with a record of 51-31, they finished behind the Miami Heat 2 games behind and had an impressive home record of 28-13. Great, but they only covered the spread at home in 45.1% of their games, going up to 65.4% on the road. That’s a huge difference considering their record on the road was 23-18.

Last year the bookies set their total win line at 46.5 games, and this has gone up to 55.5. Ouch! Also, they are favoured to win the title at 6.50 odds, to win the conference at 3.60 and to win the Atlantic division at 2.15.

Boston Celtics Best Bet: To win Atlantic at 2.10 odds

It’s a tough division, but the Celtics have the most well-rounded team, and they carry some solid value to win the Atlantic at 2.10 odds. You know the Celtics are going to be doing a lot of winning this year, providing solid value both against the spread and in the 1×2 market. That said, expectations are already high, preventing me from giving them an A this year.

New Orleans Pelicans 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	41.00
To Win Conference	21.00
To Win Division	2.10
To Make Playoffs	1.67
Over 43.5 Wins	1.71
Under 43.5 Wins	2.10

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Chicago Bulls: B

One of the teams that easily won last year’s bet was the Chicago Bulls one. After a 4-year wait, the bulls made it back to the playoffs with a solid overall season, An early 4 game-winning streak propelled the Bulls to the top of the east, and although injury issues really put a hamper on their performance overall, they still won 46 games and finished 6th in the conference. They faced the Milwaukee Bucks in the first round of the playoffs and were bounced in just 5 games.

The Bulls were a solid team last year, averaging and allowing around 112 points per game, but their playing style left a lot to be desired. For instance, in a fast-paced, high-scoring and 3-point-oriented league, the Bulls attempted just 28.8 threes per game, ranking them dead last in the NBA. Their inside scoring was a solid point, but they also allowed opponents to drain 36.6% of their threes (27th in the NBA).

Not much has changed for the Bulls this offseason, but they did sign Goran Dragic. That said, I don’t expect them to fare much better compared to last season, but they don’t have to. You know what you can expect from this team, and that’s fine. DeRozan and Lavine should average 20+ points again this year, coupled with the veteran presence of Vooch in the pain and Lonzo’s pace and playmaking, this team is solid.

Chicago Bulls Best Bet: Over 41.5 at 1.80 odds

The Bulls are available to lift the title at 61.00 odds, to win the East at 29.00 odds and to win the Central at 7.50. The bookies are giving them 1.80 odds to win 41.5 or more, and I see this as a very reachable goal. Look for the Bulls to quietly provide some solid betting value this year.

Chicago Bulls 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	61.00
To Win Conference	31.00
To Win Division	8.00
To Make Playoffs	1.81
Over 41.5 Wins	1.80
Under 41.5 Wins	2.00

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Miami Heat: B

Okay, get ready for some member berries folks, and I apologize in advance. But remember when the Miami Heat made the finals just 2 years ago and lost to the Lakers? In the bubble season? No? It seems like most of the NBA world either doesn’t remember or they simply don’t ‘count’ that season due to… circumstances. But it happened!

And last year, the Heat came close to repeating that feat, unfortunately losing to the Celtics in a tight 7-game series. They won 53 games last year, going well over their 48.5 line, they covered the spread in 56.6% of their games and easily won the Southeast. They more than justified their B+ grade from a season ago, but their team was plagued by a well-known issue in the playoffs – spacing. The Miami Heat have failed to make significant changes to their roster this offseason and their squad lacks the shooting consistency to be successful long-term.

Miami Heat Best Bet: Over 49.5 at 1.88 odds

Okay, so they won’t be winning the championship, but there’s still a lot of value in backing them during the regular season. Remember, Miami win and they cover, that’s what they do! Heat to win 49.5 at 1.88 odds!

Miami Heat 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	15.00
To Win Conference	8.00
To Win Division	1.52
To Make Playoffs	1.07
Over 49.5 Wins	1.88
Under 49.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Cleveland Cavaliers: B

Ever since the LeBron James era, the Cleveland Cavaliers have been attempting to rebuild and bounce back into playoff contention, but they’ve been unsuccessful for the last 4 years. They won 44 games last year but unfortunately finished 9th in the standings after the play-in tournament.

Still, the Cavs made huge strides in their game last season, winning 22 more games than the previous year, and their team was suddenly a formidable force again. Their gritty defence allowed just 105.7 points per game, whilst ranking 7th in defensive rating. This is a huge accomplishment for such a young team, and J. B. Bickerstaff can definitely feel confident about his team heading into the new season.

That said, the Cavs really struggled to score last season, ranking 20th in offensive rating and with Darius Garland being their only player averaging at least 20 points per game. However, the Cavs acquired Donovan Mitchell this offseason in a blockbuster trade with the Jazz for Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, and Ochai Abgaji. We all know that Mitchell is a lethal scorer who can average 25 or more points per game.

The Cavs are coming into this season somewhat underrated. The bookmakers have them to win the title at 34.00 odds, to win the east at 17.00 and to win the Central division at 4.50. Their total win line is at 47.5. Despite missing the playoffs, this team covered the spread in 53.8% of their games last year.

Cleveland Cavaliers Best Bet: Over 47.5 at 1.88 odds

Chances are we’re going to be backing the Cavs a lot this year. They are flying under the radar, and there is definitely some solid value in backing them. All they have to do for us to cash a nice cheque is win 4 more games than they did last year. I think Mitchell can help them get there! Cavs to win 47.5 at 1.88!

Cleveland Cavaliers 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	34.00
To Win Conference	17.00
To Win Division	4.50
To Make Playoffs	1.36
Over 47.5 Wins	1.88
Under 47.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Atlanta Hawks: B

Remember last year when I said I expect the Hawks to improve, especially on the defensive end? Well, I was as wrong! After a terrific 2020/21 season that saw them reach the conference finals, the Atlanta Hawks allowed their egos to inflate like birthday balloons, and they finished the regular season 8th in the east with 43 wins and 39 losses. They faced the Miami Heat in the first round and were of course smothered by Miami’s intense defence, winning just 1 game in the series.

The Hawks were an elite offensive team during the regular season, averaging 113.9 points per game and draining 37.4% from downtown to go along with 24.6 assists per game. However, their big heads caused a lot of confusion on defence, causing the Hawks to rank 26th in defensive rating, allowing 112.4 points per game to pair up with an opponent field goal percentage of 47.1%. It’s safe to say my bet for them to win the Southeast wasn’t even close, as they were 10 games behind the Heat.

The bookmakers price them at 51.00 odds to go all the way, 26.00 to win the east and 3.00 to win the Southeast. The Hawks were one of the most overrated teams in the league last year, covering the spread in just 46.1% of their games.

Atlanta Hawks Best Bet: Over 45.5 at 1.87 odds

That said, with the arrival of Dejounte Murray this summer, this team just added another reliable scoring guard to their ranks. The Hawks are going to be winning a lot during the regular season, and I have no problem backing them to go over 45.5 wins at 1.87 odds.

Atlanta Hawks 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	51.00
To Win Conference	26.00
To Win Division	2.70
To Make Playoffs	1.47
Over 45.5 Wins	1.87
Under 45.5 Wins	1.91

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Orlando Magic: B-

Having finished the 2021/22 season at the bottom of the east with just 22 wins, it’s safe to say things can only go up for the Orlando Magic this year. Apart from drafting Paolo Banchero, the Magic have assembled a solid core of young talent in Wendell Carter Jr., Franz Wagner, Cole Anthony and Jalen Suggs. Add in Jonathan Isaac and Markelle Fultz to the mix, and you’ve got an exciting young team that can really exceed their modest expectations.

The Magic were the second-worst offensive team last year, averaging just 104.2 points per game and ranking dead last in offensive rating. They were quite poor against the spread, with a record of 37-45, and there wasn’t really any reason to back them.

Orland Magic Best Bet: Over 26.5 at 1.80 odds

That said, I’m expecting a much better outing out of them this year, and the 26.5 wins mark looks very reachable.

Orlando Magic 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	501.0
To Win Conference	251.0
To Win Division	151.0
To Make Playoffs	14.00
Over 26.5 Wins	1.80
Under 26.5 Wins	1.95

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

The C Grades

Contributor: The Canadian Press / Alamy Stock Photo

Philadelphia 76ers: C+

The Philadelphia 76ers are stuck. You shouldn’t have trusted ‘The Process. The party is over, so let’s all sober up and see what we’ve done last night. By last night I mean since we drafted Embiid & Simmons.

5 playoff appearances in a row since 2017/18, 4 exits in the conference semi-finals and one sweep against the Celtics in the first round 3 years ago. Try as they might, the Philadelphia 76ers have been unable to go on a deep playoff run, even after trading for James Harden last season. They’ve re-signed Harden and signed Montrezl Harrel, but that’s about it. Their team was mediocre when it came to offence last year, and their defence wasn’t much better.

The 76ers were 25th in pace rating, scoring just 109.9 points per game, whilst allowing 107.3. They were 27th in 3-pointers attempted and 22nd in shots made beyond the arc. Let’s face it, the 76ers don’t have much to hope for when it comes to the NBA title, and even at 15.00 odds to go all the way, it’s not worth it. They are available at 8.00 to win the east, 3.50 to win the Atlantic and their total wins line is set at 50.5.

Philadelphia 76ers Best Bet: Over 50.5 at 1.75 odds

It’s not as bad as I made it out to be. Harden had a poor season, and he’s likely to bounce back, having only played 21 games with the team. They also got P.J. Tucker and Montrezl Harrell during the offseason. They’re not exactly championship material yet, but they can get to 51 wins in the east at 1.75 odds.

Philadelphia 76ers 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	15.00
To Win Conference	8.00
To Win Division	3.50
To Make Playoffs	1.07
Over 50.5 Wins	1.75
Under 50.5 Wins	2.00

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Dallas Mavericks: C

Another team that was stopped in the playoffs by the Dubs are the Dallas Mavericks. After a successful season that saw them winning 52 games and finishing 4th in the west, the Mavericks seemed ready to push for the chip. But despite a solid effort and putting away the Jazz and Suns, the Mavs were eliminated in the conference finals in just 5 games.

Despite allowing just 104.7 points per game and keeping opponents to just 34% from beyond the arc, the Mavericks faced difficulties scoring. Averaging just 108.0 points per game, they ranked 24th and 15th in offensive rating. This was made even more evident in the playoffs, where Luka Doncic was forced to carry the team’s offence for most of the tournament.

The arrival of Christian Wood as a solid scoring big man and the return of Tim Hardaway Jr. should open up their offence and allow Luka and the Mavs to function much better. The bookies have them winning the chip at 21.00 odds, compared to 29.00 last year, to win more than 48.5 games at 1.88 odds and to win the west at 10.00. They share the front-runner spot for the Southwest division with the Grizzlies at 2.25 odds.

Dallas Mavericks Best Bet: Over 48.5 at 1.88 odds

With a nice combination of solid defence and a more capable offence, the Mavs should get even better this year. It’s going to be tough in the west, but they got to 51 wins last year, and they can do it again. I’m backing them to get to 48.5 at 1.88 odds.

Dallas Mavericks 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	21.00
To Win Conference	10.00
To Win Division	2.25
To Make Playoffs	1.24
Over 48.5 Wins	1.88
Under 48.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

New York Knicks: C

Well, last season was an ice plunge for Knicks fans. Having finished the 2020/21 (shortened) regular season 4th in the east with 41 wins and 31 losses, expectations were high for the Knicks. The bookies gave them a total win line of 42.5 and they were a shoo-in for the playoffs at 1.58 odds. As you probably already know, it hasn’t turned out quite the way everybody thought.

Not only did the Knicks not improve, they actually got a lot worse. Their defence dropped from 3rd to 11th in defensive rating, and their offence was as inefficient as ever, averaging just 106.0 points per game. Julius Randle came off a terrific all-star season, winning the MOP award, but he looked like a shell of himself in his first year under a new $117 million dollar contract. The Knicks finished 11th in the east with just 37 wins and an ATS record of 39-43.

On the bright side, they may actually have some value this season. The bar has been lowered to just 38.5 wins, and the Knicks actually got better during the offseason. Jalen Brunson and Isaiah Hartenstein were brought in this summer as significant assets, and with R.J. Barret getting better each season, the Knicks can be optimistic.

New York Knicks Best Bet: Over 38.5 at 1.75

The Knicks won 37 games last year and considering their personnel, they have what it takes to win 2 more games. I’m backing the Knicks to go over 38.5 games at 1.80 odds.

New York Knicks 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	151.00
To Win Conference	81.00
To Win Division	3.50
To Make Playoffs	1.07
Over 38.5 Wins	1.75
Under 38.5 Wins	2.00

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Sacramento Kings: C-

Mediocrity is the best word possible to describe the kings since the early 00s and it’s easy to see why. They’ve made the playoffs a grand total of zero times since the 2006/07 season and finished last season 12th in the conference with 30 wins. They also could have drafted Luka Doncic, but passed. I’ll just leave that there.

The Kings went way below their 36.5 total win line and displayed a rather concerning playing style and culture. Although their offence was good enough, averaging 110.3 points per game, their defence was awful, ranking 27th in defensive rating and allowing 115.8 points per game. That said, there are some things that should have Kings fans excited.

The addition of Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter should provide some much-needed wing help, and Davion Mitchell is expected to develop. But most importantly, the Kings drafted Keegan Murray with the 4th pick in the draft this year, a player who averaged 23.5 points per game for Iowa in the 2021/22 season.

Sacramento Kings Best Bet: Over 34.5 at 1.83 odds

The Kings aren’t exactly the epitome of value but with the personnel they have, winning 35 games should be a reachable goal. Backing the Kings Over 34.5 at 1.83 odds and very low stakes.

Sacramento Kings 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	501.00
To Win Conference	251.00
To Win Division	251.00
To Make Playoffs	4.75
Over 34.5 Wins	1.83
Under 34.5 Wins	1.93

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Washington Wizards: C-

After a terrific start to the season last year, the Washington Wizards fell off a cliff mid-season and finished 12th in the east with just 35 wins and 47 losses. This is the 3rd time they failed to make the playoffs in the past 5 years, but there is light at the end of the tunnel.

After an injury-riddled season, Bradley Beal will make his way back to the Wizards’ roster, and along with Porzingis, they should be able to make an improvement compared to last year. With Barton and Morris also coming in from Denver, the Wizards’ offence got a solid boost – especially their spacing. The Wizards were 21st last year in offensive rating, averaging just 108.6 points per game, and making only 10.5 threes per game, ranking them dead last in the NBA.

Washington Wizards Best Bet: Over 34.5 at 1.78 odds

The bookmakers have them to make the playoffs at 4.80 odds, and although this might be a realistic goal, their game total is. The Wizards can get to 35 wins on the season, and at 1.78 odds, this bet carries some value.

Washington Wizards 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	501.00
To Win Conference	251.00
To Win Division	31.00
To Make Playoffs	4.80
Over 34.5 Wins	1.78
Under 34.5 Wins	1.99

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

OKC Thunder: C

If you followed my tips last season, you should already be familiar with the absolute adoration I have for this team. Yes, they were one of the worst teams in the west, winning just 24 games and finishing 14th in the standings.

However, they did beat the 23.5 line only slightly, and they were one of the best teams ATS all season long. The spread was constantly at +10 or more points in Thunder games, and they covered in a whopping 61.5% of games. This number only increased to 65.9% in road games, as the spread was even larger.

That said, they are still a young team, and losing Chet Holmgren before the season even started is not going to help. Dort, Giddey, Gilgeous-Alexander and Poku should all get slightly better, but the west is looking brutal this year, and I don trust the Thunder to start winning games. They still need a couple of more years to develop as a unit.

OKC Thunder Best Bet: Over 23.5 at 1.88 odds

There is value in backing the OKC Thunder! Yes, they are young and will probably lose a lot, but all of their young players have developed during the past year, and why shouldn’t they win at least the same amount of games as last year? Back the Thunder to win 23.5 games at 1.80 odds… or else!

OKC Thunder 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	1001.00
To Win Conference	501.00
To Win Division	251.00
To Make Playoffs	14.00
Over 23.5 Wins	1.88
Under 23.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

The D grades

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Los Angeles Clippers: D+

The Los Angeles Clippers finished the 2021/22 NBA regular season 9th in the West after the playoff tournament and missed out on a playoffs appearance for the 2nd time in the past decade. The absence of Kawhi Leonard was certainly a key factor in their lacklustre season, and they are gearing up for another attempt at winning the chip.

Surprisingly enough, the Clippers are 3rd in line to go all the way according to the bookies, available at 8.00 odds, and at 4.50 to win the western conference. Their total wins line is at 52.5 despite winning just 42 last season. They are also valued at just 1.05 odds to make the playoffs.

The addition of John Wall and the return of Kawhi Leonard to the roster is certainly good news, but neither of these players have played a single game last year. Let’s face it,t his team is too unpredictable at the moment to call them a value betting side, and I don’t feel comfortable backing them to do anything. Yes, there is a chance everything will go their way, and they could make the playoffs or win the Pacific division. However, we have to take into account the probability and I don’t think it’s as high as the bookies are telling us.

Los Angeles Clippers Best Bet: Under 52.5 at 1.90

The only reason the Clippers are here is because the bookies have already placed them in the top 5 teams to win the championship. Early much?! Yes, I am aware of what PG and the Claw can do in a perfect world where injuries don’t exist and everybody is always healthy. But, Kawhi hasn’t played 60 games since 2016/17 and PG has averaged 44.3 games per season since joining the Clippers. They are going to be a solid team this year and win some games, but I’m taking the Under on 52.5 wins!

LA Clippers 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	8.00
To Win Conference	4.50
To Win Division	3.00
To Make Playoffs	1.05
Over 52.5 Wins	1.86
Under 52.5 Wins	1.90

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Minnesota Timberwolves: D

The Minnesota Timberwolves franchise has been struggling mightily to bounce back after the early 2000s, and have finally managed to make the playoffs in the 2017/18 and 2021/22 season. They won 46 games last season and finished 7th in the Western Conference. But unfortunately, they were bounced in the very first round by the 2nd-seed Memphis Grizzlies in 6 games.

The Timberwolves were easily one of the best-attacking teams in the league last year with an offensive rating of 114.3, averaging 115.9 points per game and finishing 1st in three-pointers made per game with 14.8. However, their mediocre defence allowed 113 points per game and failed to get the job done in the playoffs.

This is why, among other assets, the Timberwolves decided to trade for Rudy Gobert this offseason, giving up Malik Beasley, Patrick Beverley, Leandro Bolmaro, Walker Kessler, Jarred Vanderbilt and 5 first-round draft picks. Yikes! Only time will tell if this team got better or worse with this trade, but I don’t expect this trade to do them much good.

The bookies have them around the middle of the pack to go all the way at 34.00 odds, at 16.00 to win the west and at 2.40 to win the Northwest division. Their total wins line is set at 48.5, and I see this as a bit too high.

Minnesota Timberwolves Best Bet: Under 48.5 at 1.90

The fact of the matter is, the Wolves didn’t get better with this move. Yes, he is great at protecting the rim and both KAT and Anthony Edwards are terrific players, but I just don’t know how well they will fit together, and it doesn’t seem very smart to back them before they’ve even played an official NBA game together. I’m taking the Under on 48.5 total wins.

Minnesota Timberwolves 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	34.00
To Win Conference	19.00
To Win Division	2.40
To Make Playoffs	1.32
Over 48.5 Wins	1.85
Under 48.5 Wins	1.90

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Milwaukee Bucks D+

The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a solid season that was them winning 51 games and finishing 3rd in the East, just below the Celtics. Unfortunately, they faced the Cs in the conference semi-finals and lost the 7-game series, ending their title aspirations. This outcome was especially unfortunate for me, as I had them winning the East in my NBA Value Report Cards article last year.

Their outright odds haven’t changed much since last year, and they are available to go all the way at 8.50 odds, 4.25 to win the East and 1.37 to win the Atlantic division. Their total wins line has been reduced from 55.5 to 53.5, but this doesn’t change things much. They covered the spread in 46.8% of their games last year, with just 17-37 at home, but they were solid on the road, going up to 27-20.

Milwaukee Bucks Best Bet: Under 52.5 at 1.93

The Bucks are definitely a solid team as is, and the addition of Joe Ingles will provide a nice boost to their ball movement, but it seems the bookies have assessed their situation accurately. They are always a looming threat, but you can’t really back them in any of these markets and feel like you made a smart decision. I’m backing the Under on 52.5 wins at 1.93.

Milwaukee Bucks 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	7.00
To Win Conference	3.75
To Win Division	1.33
To Make Playoffs	1.01
Over 52.5 Wins	1.83
Under 52.5 Wins	1.93

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Brooklyn Nets: D

Last year’s favourite to win the chip and honorary D grade the Brooklyn Nets are coming into this season with a lot less hype. I’m not one to deal with ‘I told you sos’ but I did, and they fared exactly how I expected. 7th in the East, way below the 56.5 win line and nowhere near title contention. In fact, the Celtics easily dispatched them in the first round of the playoffs in a one-sided sweep.

Now, the bookies have set some more realistic expectations, putting them 5th in line to go all the way at 9.00 odds. Although it’s still early, the acquisition of Ben Simmons and the potential return of Kyrie Irving full-time should provide a significant boost to their squad. That said, as good as the Nets can be during the regular season, the question remains whether they can get their defence in line for the playoffs.

Brooklyn Nets Best Bet: Under 50.5 at 1.86

Their total wins line has been significantly reduced compared to last season, all the way down to 50.5 but this is still not worth the bother. Yes, they might reach 51 wins, but so many things could go wrong. I’m backing the Under at 1.86 odds.

Brooklyn Nets 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	9.00
To Win Conference	5.00
To Win Division	3.30
To Make Playoffs	1.07
Over 50.5 Wins	1.90
Under 50.5 Wins	1.86

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Charlotte Hornets: D

Despite making a big jump last year, going from 33 to 43 wins compared to the previous season, the Charlotte Hornets still had a lot of issues to mend, missing the playoffs for the 6th year in a row.

The Hornets were one of the most exciting teams to watch last season, averaging 115.3 points per game, ranking 9th in offensive rating and 6th in pace. They used their high-power offence to get the better of a lot of teams during the season, covering the spread in 55.6% of their games. That said, their defence was near the bottom of the league, allowing 114.9 points, and a whopping 14 three-pointers per game.

They haven’t exactly made progress during the regular season, and with Miles Bridges’s future with the team in doubt, Ball and Hayward will have to pick up a lot of the slack. The bookmakers have them to win over 35.5 games at 1.97 odds, and honestly, this is a fair estimate. I expect a significant decline in their performance this year, and unless Liangelo Ball somehow turns into Klay Thompson, this team isn’t going anywhere.

Charlotte Hornets Best Bet: Under 34.5 at 1.64

The Hornets are in trouble, and the bookies know it. I expect a significant drop in form out of them this season, and I’m going with Under 34.5 wins at 1.64 odds.

Charlotte Hornets 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	151.00
To Win Conference	81.00
To Win Division	16.00
To Make Playoffs	3.60
Over 34.5 Wins	2.20
Under 34.5 Wins	1.64

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

The E Grades

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Los Angeles Lakers: E+

The LA Lakers were second favourites last year to win the title at 4.33 odds, but this year their odds have inflated to a whopping 23.00. I gave them a C+ last year, and I admit, that was far too generous. The Lake Show only won 33 games, finishing 11th in the conference and missing the playoffs by a long shot.

What the hell happened to the team that won the championship in 2019/20? My guess is the bubble gave them superpowers. No? Then how do we explain the 115.1 points allowed and an opponent field goal percentage of 47%? Their offence wasn’t much better, ranking 23rd in offensive rating and draining just 34.7% of their threes.

The bookies give the Lakers 11.00 odds to win the west, 9.50 to win the Pacific division, and 1.96 to win more than 45.5 games. Is anyone really expecting a 13-win jump in a single season? Let’s face it, the Lakers are always going to be overrated due to their name, and you can bet that squares will be backing them each night out regardless of how they perform.

Los Angeles Lakers Best Bet: Under 45.5 at 1.78

The only reason the Lakers aren’t in the F column is that they actually have some solid players and can win games. That said, they’re almost always going to be favourites and you’re not going to get your money’s worth backing them. I’m taking the Under on 45.5 total wins at 1.78 odds.

Los Angeles Lakers 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	23.00
To Win Conference	11.00
To Win Division	10.00
To Make Playoffs	1.43
Over 45.5 Wins	2.00
Under 45.5 Wins	1.78

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Portland Trail Blazers: E

The Portland Trail Blazers had a nightmare year last season, winning just 27 games and finishing 11th in the west. Worst of all, they covered the spread in just 30 games, making them dead last in the league in that regard.

Most of their struggles can be attributed to the absence of Damian Lillard for most of the season, having only played 29 games for the team. On the flip side, Anfernee Simmons emerged as a reliable scoring option for the Blazers, and the franchise decided to reward his efforts with a 4-year $100 million dollar contract.

I do expect the Blazers to fare much better compared to last season, but with that said, their defence is still going to struggle. They allowed 115.1 points per game last year and an opponent FG% of 47.9. The arrival of Gary Payton II and Jerami grant should provide defensive back-up in the backcourt, but this team still has a long way to go.

Portland Trail Blazers Best Bet: Under 38.5 at 1.91

The bookmakers have them winning 38.5 games at 1.85 odds, and I don’t see very much value here. The Western Conference is very tough this year, and Portland is in danger of having the rug swept out from under their legs. I’m not giving them an F just because they have the potential to do well against the spread as underdogs, but an E looks fitting at the moment.

Portland Trail Blazers 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	151.00
To Win Conference	81.00
To Win Division	11.00
To Make Playoffs	2.90
Over 38.5 Wins	1.85
Under 38.5 Wins	1.91

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Detroit Pistons: E

It’s definitely been a tough decade for Pistons fans, having only made the playoffs twice since 08/09, and being swept in the first round both times. They finished dead last in 2020/21 with just 20 wins, and they were 14th last year with 23. Slight, but progress nonetheless.

Cade Cunningham emerged as the next franchise player for the Pistons, averaging 17.4 points per game, but the team still needs a lot of help. They ranked 28th in points per game with just 104.8 and made just 32.9% of their 3-point attempts. That said, the Pistons had a very positive ATS record of 44-36, putting them 8th in the NBA in that regard. Not bad at all.

The Pistons will not be making the playoffs this year if that even needed to be said, and the bookies know it, giving them 1.05 odds to miss. I expect Cunningham and Bey to make some solid progress this year, and with Bogdanovic providing some solid veteran shooting the Pistons will get better.

Detroit Pistons Best Bet: Under 29.5 at 1.97

The Pistons are a young team with a lot of work ahead, and even though I expect them to be more competitive, backing them in outright markets is simply not worth it. Expect some value on them during the regular season in the handicap market, but that’s it for now. Under 29.5 wins at 1.97 odds.

Detroit Pistons 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	301.00
To Win Conference	151.00
To Win Division	101.00
To Make Playoffs	9.00
Over 29.5 Wins	1.80
Under 29.5 Wins	1.97

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

The F Grades

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Houston Rockets: F+

The Houston Rockets only won 20 games last year and finished dead last in the Western Conference. They are in full-rebuild mode and they are going to lose a lot of games this year too. With Christian Wood now gone, they will have to rely on Jalen Green, Jabari Smith and Kevin Porter Jr to carry the team.

These are all very exciting young players, but they will need a lot of time before they can become a winning team. The Rockets were by far the worst defence in the league last year, allowing 118.2 points per game and ranking 29th in defensive rating. The bookmakers have them winning more than 23.5 games at 1.84 odds, but even this is a tall task for such a young squad.

They were also one of the worst teams in the league ATS last year, but that might change seeing as how they will be considered huge underdogs each night out.

Houston Rockets Best Bet: Under 23.5 at 1.79

Backing the Rockets in any outright market is a bad idea this year, which is why I’m going with Under 23.5 wins at 1.98 odds.

Houston Rockets 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	1001.00
To Win Conference	501.00
To Win Division	251.00
To Make Playoffs	21.00
Over 23.5 Wins	1.79
Under 23.5 Wins	1.98

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Indiana Pacers: F

After successfully making the playoffs 5 times in a row from 2015/16 to 2019/20 and seeing first-round exits each time, the Indiana Pacers finally decided to go for a rebuild. They finished last season with 25 wins and 57 losses as the 13th team in the east. The Pacers only covered the spread in 38 games last year, making them one of the worst-value teams in the league.

Don’t expect much to change this year either. Despite having a solid offensive performance, the Pacers barely played any defence leading to a 116.1 defensive rating and 114.9 points per game allowed. They also had a terrible 3-point percentage at 34.4% to go along with 14.4 turnovers per game.

Indiana Pacers Best Bet: Under 23.5 at 1.88

There’s really no point in backing them to do anything in the futures markets, as they are a young team with a lot of learning to do. Haliburton, Hield and Turner are solid players, but it won’t be enough to get them wins each night out, and I simply don’t see any value here. I’m taking the Under on 23.5 wins at 1.88 odds

Indiana Pacers 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	1001.00
To Win Conference	501.00
To Win Division	251.00
To Make Playoffs	21.00
Over 23.5 Wins	1.88
Under 23.5 Wins	1.88

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

San Antonio Spurs: F

After almost 3 decades of constant success that saw them making the playoffs almost every single year and winning 5 championships, the Spurs have started to falter. They have missed the playoffs 3 years in a row now, and it doesn’t look like they’ll be competing at all this year.

They finished 10th in the west last year with just 34 wins and lost their only play-in game against the Pelicans by 113-103. Although they were one of the fastest and high-scoring teams in the league, averaging 113.2 points per game, the Spurs struggled to win. This was largely due to their meagre defence, which is not something I thought I would be saying about the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs Best Bet: Under 22.5 at 1.92

This year, it looks like the Spurs are getting ready to gear up, show up, and tank the entire season. They’ve either traded or waived any experienced player that could help them win games during the last year, and their team is now comprised of mostly young prospects. Victor Wembanyama is probably the goal, and they’re going to have to do a lot of losing to reach it. Under 22.5 wins for the Spurs.

San Antonio Spurs 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	1001.00
To Win Conference	501.00
To Win Division	251.00
To Make Playoffs	21.00
Over 22.5 Wins	1.84
Under 22.5 Wins	1.92

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Utah Jazz: F

Despite making the playoffs 6 years in a row, the Utah Jazz only made it past the first round 3 times but failed to reach the conference finals each time out. It’s been a fun experience with Mitchell and Gobert, but Justin Zanik decided it was time to separate the not-so-dynamic duo and start over.

They’ll be right up there, tanking right next to the San Antonio Spurs, but it’s going to be a tough race. The Jazz actually have proven NBA vets like Zeller, Clarkson, Conley and Gay, along with exciting young players like Vanderbilt and Sexton. If they wise up and trade the rest of their vets, they might have a shot at Wembeyama, and that’s exactly what I’m expecting.

Utah Jazz Best Bet

The Jazz have given up, so don’t expect them to do any winning this year. The bookies have their total wins line at 23.5 and I’m taking the easy under at 1.82 odds.

Utah jazz 2022/23 Odds	Unibet Odds
To Win Championship	501.00
To Win Conference	251.00
To Win Division	101.00
To Make Playoffs	10.75
Over 23.5 Wins	1.94
Under 23.5 Wins	1.82

Odds available as at 3:00 pm October 18th 2022. Odds may now differ.

All 30 NBA Value Report Cards Best Bets

Team Name	Best Bet	Odds	Stakes
Memphis Grizzlies	Over 48.5	1.83	6/10
Golden State Warriors	Over 52.5	1.88	4/10
Denver Nuggets	To Win Northwest	1.72	7/10
Phoenix Suns	Over 52.5	1.92	4/10
Toronto	Over 46.5	1.88	3/10
New Orleans Pelicans	To Make Playoffs	1.67	6/10
Boston Celtics	To Win Atlantic	2.10	3/10
Chicago Bulls	Over 41.5	1.80	2/10
Miami Heat	Over 49.5	1.88	4/10
Cleveland Cavaliers	Over 47.5	1.88	4/10
Atlanta Hawks	Over 45.5	1.87	2/10
Orlando Magic	Over 26.5	1.80	2/10
Philadelphia 76ers	Over 50.5	1.75	3/10
Dallas Mavericks	Over 48.5	1.88	5/10
New York Knicks	Over 38.5	1.75	2/10
Sacramento Kings	Over 34.5	1.83	1/10
Washington Wizards	Over 34.5	1.78	1/10
OKC Thunder	Over 23.5	1.88	4/10
Los Angeles Clippers	Under 52.5	1.86	3/10
Minnesota Timberwolves	Under 48.5	1.90	5/10
Milwaukee Bucks	Under 52.5	1.93	4/10
Brooklyn Nets	Under 50.5	1.86	4/10
Charlotte Hornets	Under 34.5	1.64	3/10
LA Lakers	Under 45.5	1.78	5/10
Portland Trail Blazers	Under 38.5	1.91	3/10
Detroit Pistons	Under 29.5	1.97	2/10
Houston Rockets	Under 23.5	1.98	1/10
Indiana Pacers	Under 23.5	1.88	2/10
San Antonio Spurs	Under 22.5	1.92	5/10
Utah Jazz	Under 23.5	1.82	2/10