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Mixed martial arts NBA Eastern Conference Finals Odds Preview and Best Bet: Heat Holding Value
NBA Eastern Conference Finals Odds Preview and Best Bet: Tuesday, May 16th
The Boston Celtics and the Miami Heat are set to face off in the Eastern Conference Finals for the 3rd time in the last 5 seasons! There are only two things we know for certain in this series: every game is expected to be exciting, and the bookmakers are wrong.
To be fair, we often have that expectation. The series begins on Wednesday night, with Game 1 starting at 01:30 (UK time), and we have two high-value best bets ready and waiting.
In this article:
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Series Odds Preview
The Boston Celtics are in the Eastern Conference finals for the 5th time in the last 7 seasons. As the 2nd seed with 57 wins and 25 losses, they faced the Atlanta Hawks in the opening round and got the job done in 6 games. They are coming off a 7-game series against the Philadelphia 76ers where they went down 2-3 but ultimately came back and put the hammer down in Game 7, beating Philly by a 34-point margin. They have played 13 playoff games this year, the most of any of the 4 remaining teams in the tournament.
The Celtics are among the most well-rounded teams in the playoffs, ranking 2nd in net rating, 2nd in offensive rating, and 2nd in turnover percentage. They have a deep roster with many players who can contribute. However, the Celtics have struggled to win at home this year, losing 3 of their 7 games, and Jayson Tatum has been inconsistent despite his 51-point performance in the last game.
The Miami Heat finished 8th in the East this year but have once again carved a path to the conference finals, marking the 3rd time in the last 4 years. They faced a much more formidable opponent in the 1st round but eliminated the 1st-seed Milwaukee Bucks in just 5 games. It was a fantastic feat without a doubt, but their performance against the Knicks in the semifinals was no less impressive. The Heat bounced the Knicks in a low-scoring 6-game series, and Jimmy Butler has been by far their top performer so far, averaging 31.1 points, 5.4 assists, and 6.6 rebounds per game.
The Heat are built to win in the postseason as a team, with a 97.04 pace rating and just a 12.6 turnover percentage (4th in the playoffs). They don’t have a flashy and high-scoring offense like the Nuggets or Lakers, but they are efficient, ranking 5th in offensive rating with 115.7. However, the bread and butter of this Miami Heat team has always been their defense, and they are making it known by allowing just 108.8 points per game with a defensive rating of 111.0. They have played 11 games this postseason and won 8, holding a 5-0 record so far.
These two teams have faced each other twice in the same position in the last 4 years, and both times it was a terrific series. The first time was in the 2019/2020 ‘Bubble’ season when the Heat made it all the way to the finals, only to lose to the Lakers. The second time was 2 seasons ago when the Celtics got the job done in a tight 7-game series.
Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Series Odds Best Bet
The bookmakers have the Boston Celtics at 1.18 odds to win the series whilst the Heat are available at 5.25. This accounts for an 84.7% percentage for the Celtics to win and I see this as insane! I’m not Stephen A. Smith, but let me be very clear, the Boston Celtics don’t deserve these odds and we will see why. The Heat are a much tougher opponent than the Hawks and 76ers and are coming into this series better rested.
The Celtics have 2 scoring superstars in Brown and Tatum, but the Heat are so resilient, and this will end up being a much closer series than the bookmakers expect. Coach Eric Spoelstra has been in this situation many times and has the experience to properly prepare for this series. We see a lot of value backing the Heat to come out on top here and we are backing them with 2 best bets.
- Selection: Heat +1.5 Games
- Best odds: 2.50 (Bet365)
- Stakes: 5/10
- Bonus: Heat to Win Series at 5.25 odds (Bet365) and 1/10 stakes
Odds as at 11:00 am on May 16th, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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