NBA Most Improved Player 2023/24 Longshot Expert Tip: 34.00 Odds Selection

With the NBA 2023/24 regular season starting soon, basketball expert Sam Cox has a look at the Most Improved Player award market and gives us the best longshot bets.

The field for Most Improved Player is much more open than other individual awards. Only one player is shorter than 10.00 in preseason betting. It can be a notoriously difficult race to predict.

So many players being in contention can lead to some longshot wins for NBA outright bettors. Two of the last three winners – Lauri Markkanen and Julius Randle – were at lengthy prices before the start of the season.

Mikal Bridges opens as the favourite for 2023-24 ahead of a trio of young guards in Cade Cunningham, Tyrese Maxey and Austin Reaves. Bridges is looking to become the first ever Net to win the award.

It’s beyond the favourites where you find the best value in this market. So, we’ve put together three of our favourite longshots…

In this article:

• Expert Tip for Most Improved Player
• Franz Wagner
• Jalen Green
• Evan Mobley

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Expert Tip for Most Improved Player in 2023-24

You can talk yourself into any of these bets. Green is tempting at the longest odds of the three, but you need to be relatively confident in the Rockets being semi-competitive while believing Green will find the right role in on this new-look roster.

Mobley’s case relies on a major uptick in offensive production. Does Cleveland funnel more of their play through him? How many minutes does he get on the court without another non-shooting big? Of the three teams, the Cavs are the most likely to be a top-four ballclub, which could work in Mobley’s favour.

Despite some uncertainty over Orlando’s credentials, Wagner at 34.00 still looks a marginally better wager than Mobley at 31.00. The World Cup was another reminder of just how high Wagner’s ceiling is. He’s got all the tools to be a really impactful two-way forward this season, and on a team which has meaningful upside in a fluid East.

Franz Wagner – 34.00 (Bet365)

Orlando (five) has produced the joint-most Most Improved Player winners – will Franz Wagner add another to that tally in 2024?

Wagner starred for Germany in the World Cup despite missing four games through injury and has a huge role to play on a Magic team with high expectations for the new season.

After a slow start to the season, Orlando were a solid team once Markelle Fultz returned from injury. They went 29-31 in games with Fultz in 2022-23.

It doesn’t take a wild imagination to see the Magic as a top-six team in the East this season, and that kind of leap would elevate their players into the discussion for awards.

Wagner already jumped from 15.2 to 18.6 in scoring average, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him get into the low twenties. As a good, multi-position defender with an above-average three-point shot and playmaking ability, it’s feasible Wagner makes the jump from good young player to All-Star calibre this season.

Jalen Green – 41.00 (Unibet)

The Houston Rockets overhauled their roster in the offseason in a desperate attempt to be competitive in 2023-24. After two years on a rebuilding team, this is a big season in Jalen Green’s development.

Inevitably getting more off-ball reps with Fred VanVleet arriving, Green should benefit from a deeper, more experienced Houston roster. There is less of a playmaking responsibility, which will allow Green to focus on being an electric scorer.

His usage (28.1% last season) might not increase. VanVleet and Dillon Brooks are going to take up at least 22 shots per game. Green’s chances for this award are about improving efficiency – his true shooting was below 54% last season, and we should see an improvement in his assist-to-turnover ratio.

Evan Mobley – 31.00 (Bet365)

Already a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, Evan Mobley has been quick to live up to pre-draft expectations on one end of the floor.

His offensive game, however, still needs work. If he can become a more impactful offensive player, the Most Improved Player case will be compelling.

While the presence of Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland will inevitably limit Mobley’s usage on offence, the quality of his team could also serve as a benefit to his MIP candidacy. Mobley is going to be contributing to winning, and it’s reasonable to expect the Cavs to be in the top four in the Eastern Conference.

Mobley has great touch around the basket, and he’s a more than capable playmaker for his position. We might see him given more reps at the five, which could help to unlock his offensive game with more space to attack.

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