basketball | Friday, February 17, 2023 9:05 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 20, 2023 10:31 AM)

NBA Most Valuable Player Best Bet: Giannis Has Value Out At 8.50

Sam Cox

NBA Most Valuable Player Best Bet: 2022-2023 NBA Season

Two-time defending MVP Nikola Jokic is the 1.67 favourite to complete a threepeat in 2022-23. The Joker was an outsider before the season, with only Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and Larry Bird having won the award in three consecutive seasons, and a considerable degree of voter fatigue expected.

Injuries have removed Kevin Durant and Steph Curry from contention. Jokic has a considerable lead according to oddsmakers ahead of the All-Star break, but four players are in pursuit led by consecutive MVP runner-up Joel Embiid. Two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo follows at 8.50, with Luka Doncic at 13.00 and Jayson Tatum at 15.00.

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NBA MVP Betting Preview
NBA MVP Best Bet

NBA Most Valuable Player Betting Preview

Averaging a triple-double on career-best efficiency, all while leading the Nuggets to the top seed in the Western Conference, it is no surprise Jokic is the favourite. Advanced metrics have the Serbian miles clear of anyone else – Luka Doncic is the only player in the same stratosphere, according to WAR, VORP and BPM.

Doncic’s candidacy is undermined by Dallas being 10 games back of Denver in the loss column. At the time of writing, he is tied with Embiid for the scoring lead, while grabbing nine boards and dishing eight assists per game. A weaker supporting cast (prior to the Kyrie Irving deal, at least) could be used to argue in Doncic’s favour. It is hard to see how voters back him over Jokic, Embiid or Antetokounmpo, however.

Just as in the last two seasons, Embiid is Jokic’s nearest rival. Philadelphia is only one game back of Denver in the loss column, which should aid the Cameroonian’s candidacy. The debate, though, is similar to the last two seasons. Embiid is a better defender and could lead the Association in scoring again. He has also played fewer games, and falls far behind the Joker in advanced statistical categories.

For voters to back Embiid over Jokic, the Sixers surely need to finish with a better record than Denver. Embiid has to score 35+ per game down the stretch and/or Jokic needs to experience a drop-off in his production. How likely are those things? Less likely than Embiid’s implied MVP probability of 20.8%.

NBA Most Valuable Player Best Bet

Just as Philly has trended in the right direction after a slow start, the Milwaukee Bucks are on an absolute tear. Like Jokic, Antetokounmpo is chasing a third MVP. Milwaukee has a better record than Denver, having won 11 in a row.

The Greek Freak has scored 38 per game over the last 10. The trade for Jae Crowder and improving play of Khris Middleton puts the Bucks in position for a strong second half of the regular season. Antetokounmpo’s MVP odds have already shortened considerably, and they are likely to fall further in the coming weeks.

Jokic warrants the shortest odds in this market. At this stage, a 60% implied probability is still too high, even with the Joker’s ironman injury record and Denver’s lead at the top of the West. The chasing pack are simply too talented.

Antetokounmpo is only a shade behind Doncic and Embiid in the scoring race. The Bucks are rolling. Out at 8.50, he is the value pick with over 20 games to go. The reluctance to hand Jokic a third straight MVP could become a factor if this is close down the stretch.