basketball | Friday, February 17, 2023 8:48 AM (Revised at: Monday, February 20, 2023 10:32 AM)

NBA Rookie of the Year 2022-23 Best Bet: Mathurin Puts Pressure On Banchero

Sam Cox

NBA Rookie of the Year 2022-23 Best Bet: 2022-23 NBA Season

First overall pick Paolo Banchero is the overwhelming betting favourite for 2022-23 NBA Rookie of the Year. Priced at 1.07 to win the award at Paddy Power, bookies effectively see the Rookie of the Year race as a foregone conclusion. With the Orlando Magic forward averaging 20 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists, there’s good reason for that.

Bennedict Mathurin is the only other player at a shorter price than 29.00. Is Banchero a lock for Rookie of the Year? Is there value elsewhere on the board as the All-Star break approaches?

In this article:

NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Preview
NBA Rookie of the Year Best Bet

NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Preview

Not all numbers love Banchero. He is just 10th among rookies in FiveThirtyEight’s wins above replacement. His efficiency has waned after a great start – of rookies to play 10 or more games, 21 have a better true shooting percentage than Banchero. There is a sense he has hit the infamous rookie wall, resulting in a true shooting under 50% over the last 15 games. The Magic are also 5.1 points per 100 possessions better without Banchero on the floor.

Of course, it was never reasonable to expect Banchero to maintain his early pace, which put him on track for one of the greatest rookie seasons in NBA history. Still, his performances over the last couple of months indicate this Rookie of the Year race is not over.

Unlike MVP, DPOY or even Most Improved Player, winning is rarely a factor in Rookie of the Year. It is an award where voters can be captivated by a player’s raw talent over their efficiency at times, and Banchero captured many voters at the start of the season.

Walker Kessler is the rookie leader in wins above replacement, and has impressed greatly on the Utah Jazz with his rim protection and rebounding ability. Kessler’s no-frills game is not going to lure voters away from Banchero, though.

Mathurin, scorer of over 17 points per game on better efficiency than Banchero, is a highlight-producing guard. His opportunities are comparatively limited due to the other backcourt talents in Indiana. One of the arguments for Mathurin earlier in the year would have been the Pacers’ record. Indiana has slumped, however, and Orlando has soared. The Magic are level with the Pacers in the loss column.

Still, bettors could talk themselves into Mathurin. If Indiana, after keeping its key pieces at the deadline, put together a run and Mathurin averaged 20+ after the break, he could force a serious conversation about Rookie of the Year.

NBA Rookie of the Year Betting Best Bet

Much further down the list, another explosive wing is a fun longshot bet. Shaedon Sharpe didn’t play in college, and came in as a project in Portland. Sharpe has played over 500 fewer minutes than Banchero and Mathurin.

As the 1001.0 odds suggest, Sharpe would need an historic end to the season to even receive votes. The opportunity could be there, however, with Portland trading away Gary Payton II and Josh Hart at the trade deadline, perhaps with the aim of opening up more minutes for their lottery prospect.

At this price, a small wager on Sharpe is worth considering. He has the upside to put up some gaudy numbers down the stretch, which will catch the eye of voters if Portland surge.