basketball | Friday, February 17, 2023 9:20 AM (Revised at: Friday, February 17, 2023 11:45 AM)

NBA Championship Best Bet: Bucks Represent Best Value At All-Star Break

Sam Cox

NBA Championship Best Bet: 2022-23 Outright Betting Tips

At a price of 4.70 with SBK, the Boston Celtics are the NBA championship favourites at the All-Star break. Boston narrowly leads the Suns, Bucks and Nuggets – the order of that group depends on the bookmaker.

The Clippers and 76ers wrap up the main title contenders at shortest prices of 10.00 and 11.00 respectively.

No other franchise is shorter than 15.00 at the time of writing. The Lakers, for instance, are as far out as 51.00 even after their roster overhaul at the trade deadline.

In this article:

NBA Title Betting Preview
NBA Title Best Bet

NBA Championship Betting Preview

The Celtics have a stacked roster, the best record, the best net rating and proven playoff pedigree after their run to the Finals in 2022. They are also vulnerable in the frontcourt with a late-thirties Al Horford, sluggish Blake Griffin and often-injured Robert Williams III. Mike Muscala’s arrival does little to help with guarding Giannis Antetokounmpo and Joel Embiid, or even Jarrett Allen.

After the trade deadline, the Eastern Conference has become more top heavy, with the Celtics, Bucks and Sixers far clear of the chasing pack. In some ways, that works in Boston’s favour, as they may only have to beat one of Milwaukee or Philadelphia to return to the Finals. On the other hand, the teams out west have an advantage with no team poised to be a real postseason juggernaut.

Denver is a decent bet at its current price, but it is fair to wonder about their guard depth and defence. Steph Curry’s injury leaves the Warriors in limbo. We are firmly in the need-to-see-it stage with the Clippers. Phoenix will be great, but they are vulnerable to injuries and purely theoretical at this point.

The West feels so open. Memphis and Dallas are both fringe contenders to represent their conference in the Finals this summer, too. Even New Orleans will fancy their chances if Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum are healthy.

Somehow, the Warriors still look like the team to beat, such is their dominance with their core players on the court together, and their lengthy history of winning road playoff games. As far out as 21.00, the Dubs are the best value in the Western Conference. A low seeding will not bother them.

NBA Championship Best Bet

Where there are at least six Western Conference teams without a massive amount between them, it clearly comes down to the top three in the East. Boston is the worst value of the three despite their depth and two-way prowess.

Milwaukee has won 11 in a row, with Giannis Antetokounmpo averaging over 37 per game in that span. Khris Middleton is working his way back, and has looked like his pre-injury self in flashes. Brook Lopez is a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and Jrue Holiday remains a menace on that end. Bobby Portis will be back for the playoffs, plus Jae Crowder brings yet more defence and spacing.

The Bucks are tied with the Celtics in the loss column. They are locking in at the right time, and even with their improved roster, Boston will not be looking forward to seeing them in a playoff series. Milwaukee would have eliminated the Celtics last year if Middleton was healthy.

Led by the two-time MVP and a well-fitting, playoff-tested supporting cast, the Bucks are the best value bet on the board at 7.00.

Philadelphia is worth consideration, too. Since a 4-6 start, Philly is 34-13 and fourth in net rating. The starting line up has a better offence-defence balance since switching Tyrese Maxey for De’Anthony Melton. The Sixers’ implied title probability of 6.1% at SBK seems low, yet it is understandable to be cautious about a team’s playoff chances when James Harden and Doc Rivers are involved.