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After impressing in the first round against the Cleveland Cavaliers, the New York Knicks have been outplayed by the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals. Tom Thibodeau’s team return to Madison Square Garden on Wednesday night with their season on the line. Miami has built a commanding 3-1 lead, powered by the irrepressible Jimmy Butler and some excellent production from the rest of the roster.
New York, despite struggling in much of this series, is favoured by a handful of points for Game Five. They have been considerably outscored through four games after an eight-point loss a couple of days ago. Too often the offence has ground to a complete halt.
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Thu, May 11. 00:30 (UK time)
It has become part of Miami Heat tradition that the entire team elevates to a new level in the postseason. Players who couldn’t hit shots in the regular year are suddenly knockdown shooters again. Weak links on defence are playing hard. Kyle Lowry and Kevin Love have rolled back the years, occupying pivotal roles even with Erik Spoelstra electing to use Lowry off the bench and starting Gabe Vincent.
Lowry has been sensational in these Playoffs. Leading bench units and hustling in a way few thought he still had in him, the former Raptor is only playing between 24 and 31 minutes per game, but that is more than enough to make a major impact. He’s creating for others, seldom turning it over, and draining open shots. Lowry has taken 18 threes in this series, and has made seven of them.
In three of four games, he has passed this made threes line. The Knicks were bottom five in the NBA in opponent three-point rate in the regular year, and they are giving up even more perimeter attempts in the postseason. This over is great value.
At the other end of the court, the Knicks’ offensive struggles are a team-wide issue. Julius Randle, though, has been singled out for criticism. Randle has too often forced shots. The swarming Heat defence has given him issues, too.
Through just three appearances in this series, Randle has turned the ball over 13 times, passing this line in every single game. New York is still going to put it in Randle’s hands – over 2.5 turnovers seems like a lock.
A lot of punters are going to go for the Heat moneyline here, and with good reason. This has been a very one-sided series. Even when the Heat lost without Butler, the final deficit was just six points.
Miami will be desperate to get this wrapped up with the Celtics and Sixers still battling it out. The MSG crowd might push the Knicks over the line, but the Heat will at least make them work for it.
Bet Builder Odds: 3.40
Odds as of 10:00 am May 10, 2023. Odds may now differ.
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