basketball | Wednesday, November 16, 2022 2:26 PM

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Best Bet: Another High-Scoring Affair in Phoenix

Milan Stanojic

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Best Bet: Wednesday, November 16th

The Phoenix Suns host the Golden State Warriors at Footprint Center for the second time this season after a dominant 134-105 Phoenix win in late October. The Dubs are back for revenge at the back of their own dominant win against the Spurs, but their road performance this year hasn’t been up to par. The bookmakers expect a close encounter this time around, setting the spread at just 1.5 points, but I’m looking at the Over/Under market for value.

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Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Preview
Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Best Bet

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Preview

Thu, Nov 17. 02:00 (UK time)

The Phoenix Suns have enjoyed a solid start to the 2022/23 NBA season, but their form in the last few games has been subpar. With 8 wins and 5 losses, the Suns are 4th in the west, and currently riding a 2-game losing streak. They have lost 3 of their last 5 games and are coming off a 113-112 heartbreaker against the Miami Heat at FTX Arena. The Suns have been playing well at home this year, winning 6 of their 7 games, and covering the spread in 5. Shamet, Crowder and Johnson are out for tonight, whilst CP3 is listed as questionable.

The Phoenix Suns are one of those solid Western Conference teams you can never really bet against and feel good about it, even when they are in a runt. They have a solid offence, ranking 4th in the league, averaging 112.5 points per game and making 36.6% of their 3-point field goals. Their defence has been excellent from the start of the season, allowing an average of just 106.1 points per game, but there’s a problem. The Suns’ defence doesn’t do well defending the perimeter, and they’ve allowed opponents to shoot 41.1% from beyond the arc in their last 5 games. They are a slow team, and if the Dubs can get off to a hot start from downtown, this game can turn into a real shootout quickly.

On the flip side, the Golden State Warriors have left a lot to be desired from the start of the season, winning just 6 of their first 14 games and sitting 11th in the west. This is not something we expected from the defending champions, but there is a silver lining. The Dubs have won 3 of their last 5 and are coming off a demolition job against the San Antonio Spurs, winning by 132-95. Whilst this isn’t exactly something to write home about, the Warriors really got their offence going, shooting 51% from beyond the arc to go along with a whopping 35 assists.

Try not to fall out of your chair when I tell you this, but the Golden State Warriors love shooting threes. I know, it’s hard to believe but it’s true. The Dubs have been one of the best 3-point shooting teams for years now, and this season is no different. They are the fastest team in the league with a pace rating of 102.5 and they attempt 41.1 threes per game (1st in NBA), whilst making 37.3% of them. That said, the Warriors have been terrible on the road so far, but it’s still a fairly small sample size, and I expect this to even out as the season movies along.

Phoenix Suns vs Golden State Warriors Best Bet

The Suns are only slightly favoured to win this one at 1.87, whilst the Warriors are available at 2.03. It’s a coin toss if you ask me, but I’m looking for value in a different market.

Their first encounter of the season was a 134-105 win for the Suns in the same arena, and I expect similar scoring numbers tonight again. The Warriors have been terrible on defence, allowing an average of 117.5 points per game. But also, the Suns’ defence hasn’t been much better, allowing 114.6 in their last 3. I expect both teams to get their offences going tonight, which is why the 226.5 total points line is looking rather low. I’m backing the Over.