Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Expert Tips: December 28th Preview, Betting Odds and NBA Tips

Winners of five of their last six, the Warriors are narrowly favoured over the Miami Heat when the teams matchup on Thursday night. Miami are potentially missing six players with Jimmy Butler, Duncan Robinson, and Caleb Martin among those listed as day-to-day in the latest NBA injury reports.

Read below for our analysis of Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat from US sports expert Sam Cox.

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• Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Pick: Golden State Warriors -2.5
• Best odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Odds available as of December 28th. Odds may now differ.

Go with our tip at bet365In this article:

• Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Tip
• Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Game Info
• Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Trends
• Golden State Warriors Stats & Form
• Miami Heat Stats & Form
• Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Where to Watch
• Safer Gambling

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS MIAMI HEAT EXPERT PICKS

Miami have won three in a row, including a six-point Christmas Day win over the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers. Golden State are still searching for rhythm, and are without Draymond Green and Gary Payton II here. The Dubs, though, have shown some signs of progress, particularly in the win over the Celtics.

These teams are well-matched, but with Butler and Robinson likely to sit out, we think the Heat could struggle to keep pace if the Warriors get rolling from deep. It’s a small number for the Dubs to cover, even if they have gone 6-9 against the spread in San Francisco.

• Golden State Warriors vs Miami Heat Pick: Golden State Warriors -2.5
• Best odds: 1.87
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 5/10

Go with our tip at bet365

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS MIAMI HEAT GAME INFO

• Date: Friday, December 29
• Time: 03:10 AM (UK time)
• Venue: Chase Center – San Francisco, California

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS MIAMI HEAT TRENDS

• These two teams both rank in the top 10 in net rating over the last five games.
• Only five teams turn the ball over more frequently than the Warriors – the Heat are sixth in opponent turnover rate.
• Golden State allows the best location effective field goal percentage in the league.
• At 35.4%, Miami takes the highest share of its shots from the mid-range.
• The Heat are only 14-16 against the spread on the season.

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GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS STATS & FORM

Steve Kerr’s decision to change his starting five after Draymond Green’s latest suspension has worked wonders. Brandin Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga have been a good fit alongside the splash brothers – the Dubs are +9.7 in Podziemski’s minutes.

The Golden State defence is only middling this year, but some of that can be attributed to hot opponent shooting. Teams are shooting almost 48% from mid-range against the Warriors in 2023-24.

While Klay Thompson struggled against the Nuggets on the 25th, the four-time NBA champion has turned a corner after a slow start to the season. Thompson is averaging 20.3 points per game over the last 10.

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MIAMI HEAT STATS & FORM

The brilliant play of Jaime Jaquez Jr has been the biggest story of the Heat’s season. Jaquez is averaging over 17 points per game over the last 10, and has been a huge asset for the Heat. If Butler and Robinson sit out, they will be reliant on Jaquez’s scoring.

Around middle of the pack in both offensive and defensive rating, Miami still love shooting from the mid-range (near the top of the league in mid-range field goal attempts). They are also fourth in free-throw rate, which could be valuable against a foul-happy Warriors ballclub.

Miami has won its last three road games, but the Warriors are once again a much better team on their homefloor (9-6 at Chase Center, compared with 6-9 away from home).

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS VS MIAMI HEAT WHERE TO WATCH

A subscription to NBA League Pass gives fans access to games, live and on-demand, and more for the entire season and offseason.

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SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.