History Says.....Stay Away From the Front of the Market at the World Cup

Has it been profitable to bet against World Cup tournament favourites? How have the nations at the front of the outright winner betting market performed?

In this article:

• Betting Against the Front of the Market
• Betting on Tournament Favourites
• Historical World Cup Winner Odds

In this analysis I will be looking at the performance of nations at the front of World Cup outright betting. By ‘front of the market’ I am talking about nations entering the World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0. I will be looking at how these nations performed in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets before looking at how tournament favourites performed in the same markets.

Betting results have been determined by betting at even stakes, i.e betting a single unit on each possible outcome in a given betting market. I have used average odds adjusted to standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% with odds provided from my own archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.

I will then close the article by looking through the history of World Cup winner odds from 2002 through the 2018 tournament.

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Betting Against the Front of the Market

Let’s jump straight into it. First let’s take a look at how nations at the front of the market have performed at World Cups.

Across the last five World Cups (since 2002), there have been 16 nations that have entered a World Cup campaign at shorter than odds of 10.0. These are:

Table 1: Nations starting a World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0 since 2002

World Cup	Nation	Odds
2002	Argentina	6.0
2002	Italy	8.0
2002	France	9.0
2006	Brazil	4.0
2010	Spain	5.50
2010	Brazil	6.0
2010	England	7.80
2010	Argentina	8.30
2014	Brazil	4.90
2014	Argentina	6.40
2014	Germany	7.40
2014	Spain	9.30
2018	Germany	6.40
2018	Brazil	7.0
2018	France	7.80
2018	Spain	9.30

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So how have teams at the front of the market performed against teams at odds 10.0 or longer since 2002?

Table 2: Performance of nations starting a World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0 since 2002 in the 1X2 Market.

Matches	Won	Draw	Lost	Won P/L	Draw P/L	Loss P/L
74	41	19	14	-8.02	+4.49	+21.81

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In the 1X2 market, betting against front of the market teams has returned a handsome profit since 2002. Betting at even stakes on teams at odds 10.0 or longer vs teams shorter than odds of 10.0 has seen a profit of +21.81 units from 74 matches, a return of +29.5%.

Backing the draw has likewise been profitable in these matches, returning a profit of +4.49 units.

These results are likewise reflected in the Asian handicap market.

Table 3: Performance of nations starting a World Cup at odds shorter than 10.0 since 2002 in the Asian handicap Market.

Matches	Ah WON	Ah LOST	Ah WON P/L	Ah LOST P/L
74	29.75	44.25	-16.58	+11.02

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Betting on teams at odds 10.0 or longer against teams shorter than odds 10.0 has returned a profit of +11.02 units from 74 matches, a return of +14.9%.Betting on nations at odds 10.0 or longer against front of the market nations in the Asian handicap market has hit a win rate of 59.8% from the 74 matches.

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Betting on Tournament Favourites

Let’s take a look at how tournament favourites have performed in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap betting markets.

Firstly, here are the tournament favourites dating back to 2002.

Table 4: World Cup favourites since 2002

Year	FAVOURITE	Odds
2002	Argentina	6.0
2006	Brazil	4.0
2010	Spain	5.50
2014	Brazil	4.90
2018	Germany	6.40

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As we saw in previous articles, it has been profitable to bet against defending World Cup champions, betting on underdogs receiving at least +1 in the Asian handicap market and betting against top ranked FIFA nations. These results are likewise reflected in the results when betting against pre tournament favourites.

Betting against tournament favourites in the 1X2 market since 2002 has returned a huge profit of +27.98 units from just 24 units. The bulk of the damage was done betting against Germany in 2018, with opposing tournament favourites returning a profit in all but Brazil in 2014.

Table 5: Performance of World Cup favourites since 2002 in the 1X2 market

Year	Nation	Matches	W	D	L	W P/L	D P/L	L P/L
2002	Argentina	3	1	1	1	-1.29	+0.63	+0.95
2006	Brazil	5	4	0	1	+0.4	-5	+0.2
2010	Spain	7	5	1	1	+1.69	-3.6	+7.08
2014	Brazil	6	3	2	1	-1.78	+3.72	-3.1
2018	Germany	3	1	0	2	-1.54	-3	+22.85
TOTAL		24	14	4	6	-2.52	-7.25	+27.98

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We see similarities in the Asian handicap market. Betting against tournament favourites has seen a profit of +3.33 from the 24 matches, with a win rate of just under 58%.

Table 6: Performance of World Cup favourites since 2002 in the Asian handicap market

Year	Nation	Matches	Ah WON	Ah LOST	Ah W P/L	Ah L P/L
2002	Argentina	3	0.75	2.25	-1.54	+1.34
2006	Brazil	5	3	2	+0.69	-1.12
2010	Spain	7	3	4	-1.26	+0.55
2014	Brazil	6	2.75	3.25	-0.67	+0.55
2018	Germany	3	0.5	2.5	-2	+2.01
TOTAL		24	10	14.0	-4.8	+3.33

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Historical World Cup Winner Odds

Before I close this analysis, let’s take a look through the history of World Cup winner odds, from 2002 onwards. The odds referenced are taken from my own personal outright odds archive.

2002 World Cup Winner Odds

Coming off their disappointment of 1998, eventual 2002 winners Brazil entered the World Cup at odds of 11.0 to claim the trophy. Their opponents in the final Germany began the tournament even further adrift at odds of 15.0.

It was not a great tournament for nations that began as the favourites. Argentina began at odds of 6.0 and failed to make the knockout stage, while Italy at odds of 8.0 were eliminated in the Round of 16 and France at odds of 9.0 failed to win a match in the World Cup defence.

The biggest surprise of the tournament was Senegal, beginning the tournament at odds of 301.0 and reaching the quarter finals while the USA at odds of 181.0 did likewise.

Table 8: 2002 World Cup Winner odds

Tournament	Nation	Odds	Result
2002	Argentina	6.0	Group Stage
2002	Italy	8.0	Round of 16
2002	France	9.0	Group Stage
2002	Brazil	11.0	WINNER
2002	Spain	12.0	Qtr Finals
2002	England	15.0	Qtr Finals
2002	Germany	15.0	Runner Up
2002	Portugal	18.50	Group Stage
2002	Cameroon	41.0	Group Stage
2002	Paraguay	51.0	Round of 16
2002	Croatia	61.0	Group Stage
2002	Nigeria	61.0	Group Stage
2002	Poland	61.0	Group Stage
2002	Ecuador	81.0	Group Stage
2002	Ireland	81.0	Round of 16
2002	Japan (HOST)	81.0	Round of 16
2002	Mexico	81.0	Round of 16
2002	South Africa	81.0	Group Stage
2002	South Korea (HOST)	81.0	4th Place
2002	Sweden	81.0	Round of 16
2002	Belgium	101.0	Round of 16
2002	Russia	101.0	Group Stage
2002	Turkey	121.0	3rd Place
2002	Denmark	151.0	Round of 16
2002	Uruguay	151.0	Group Stage
2002	Slovenia	181.0	Group Stage
2002	USA	181.0	Qtr Finals
2002	China	301.0	Group Stage
2002	Costa Rica	301.0	Group Stage
2002	Senegal	301.0	Qtr Finals
2002	Tunisia	301.0	Group Stage
2002	Saudi Arabia	301.0	Group Stage

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2006 World Cup Winner Odds

Brazil entered the 2006 World Cup at the relatively short odds of 4.0, looking to defend their 2002 title. After winning their group, Brazil were bounced in the quarter finals by France.

Argentina, England and Germany each began at odds of 11.0 with the hosts Germany eliminated in the semi finals by Italy while Argentina and England were each eliminated in the quarter finals.

Eventual winners Italy began the tournament at a best price of 13, with runners up France starting odds of 17.5.

The biggest surprise of the 2006 World Cup was Ecuador who reached the quarter finals having begun the tournament at odds of 251.0.

Table 9: 2006 World Cup Winner odds

Tournament	Nation	Odds	Result
2006	Brazil	4.0	Qtr Finals
2006	Argentina	11.0	Qtr Finals
2006	England	11.0	Qtr Finals
2006	Germany (HOST)	11.0	3rd
2006	Italy	13.0	WINNER
2006	France	17.50	Runner Up
2006	Netherlands	17.50	Round of 16
2006	Spain	21.0	Round of 16
2006	Portugal	31.0	4th
2006	Czech Republic	41.0	Group Stage
2006	Mexico	51.0	Round of 16
2006	Sweden	51.0	Round of 16
2006	USA	51.0	Group Stage
2006	Croatia	61.0	Group Stage
2006	Ivory Coast	61.0	Group Stage
2006	Serbia	61.0	Group Stage
2006	Ukraine	61.0	Qtr Finals
2006	Australia	81.0	Round of 16
2006	Poland	101.0	Group Stage
2006	Switzerland	101.0	Round of 16
2006	Ghana	121.0	Round of 16
2006	Japan	181.0	Group Stage
2006	Paraguay	181.0	Group Stage
2006	Ecuador	251.0	Round of 16
2006	South Korea	251.0	Group Stage
2006	Tunisia	251.0	Group Stage
2006	Angola	501.0	Group Stage
2006	Costa Rica	501.0	Group Stage
2006	Iran	501.0	Group Stage
2006	Saudi Arabia	501.0	Group Stage
2006	Togo	501.0	Group Stage
2006	Trinidad & Tobago	501.0	Group Stage

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2010 World Cup Winner Odds

Spain began the tournament as favourites, at odds of 5.50 to win the 2010 World Cup in South Africa. The team they defeated in the final, Netherlands, began at odds of 12.3.

Brazil began the tournament just short of favouritism and were eliminated by the Dutch in the quarter finals, while Argentina reached the quarter finals and England suffered a 4-1 defeat to Germany in the Round of 16.

The biggest surprise of the 2010 World Cup was Uruguay who reached the semi finals starting the tournament at odds of 171.0.

Table 10: 2010 World Cup Winner odds

Tournament	Nation	Odds	Result
2010	Spain	5.50	WINNER
2010	Brazil	6.0	Qtr Finals
2010	England	7.80	Round of 16
2010	Argentina	8.30	Qtr Finals
2010	Netherlands	12.30	Runner Up
2010	Germany	16.50	3rd
2010	Italy	16.50	Group Stage
2010	France	23.50	Group Stage
2010	Portugal	31.0	Round of 16
2010	Ivory Coast	61.0	Group Stage
2010	Serbia	61.0	Group Stage
2010	Chile	76.0	Round of 16
2010	USA	91.0	Round of 16
2010	Ghana	111.0	Qtr Finals
2010	Mexico	111.0	Round of 16
2010	Paraguay	111.0	Qtr Finals
2010	Cameroon	151.0	Group Stage
2010	Denmark	151.0	Group Stage
2010	Australia	171.0	Group Stage
2010	Nigeria	171.0	Group Stage
2010	South Africa (HOST)	171.0	Group Stage
2010	Uruguay	171.0	4th
2010	Greece	221.0	Group Stage
2010	South Korea	276.0	Round of 16
2010	Switzerland	276.0	Group Stage
2010	Slovakia	451.0	Round of 16
2010	Slovenia	551.0	Group Stage
2010	Japan	651.0	Round of 16
2010	Algeria	801.0	Group Stage
2010	Honduras	1101.0	Group Stage
2010	North Korea	2151.0	Group Stage
2010	New Zealand	2751.0	Group Stage

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2014 World Cup Winner Odds

Hosts Brazil entered the 2014 World Cup as favourites at odds of 4.9, but were eliminated in ignominious fashion in the semi finals by eventual champions Germany, 7-1.

The Germans entered the tournament at odds of 7.40, while the nation they defeated in extra time of the final, Argentina entered as second favourites, at odds of 6.40.

Meanwhile defending champions Spain entered the tournament at odds of 9.30 and failed to reach the knockout stage.

The biggest surprises of the 2014 World Cup was Costa Rica who reached the quarter finals after starting the tournament at odds of 1251.0.

Table 11: 2014 World Cup Winner odds

Tournament	Nation	Odds	Result
2014	Brazil (HOST)	4.90	4th
2014	Argentina	6.40	Runner Up
2014	Germany	7.40	WINNER
2014	Spain	9.30	Group Stage
2014	Belgium	17.0	Qtr Finals
2014	Colombia	25.0	Qtr Finals
2014	France	25.0	Qtr Finals
2014	Italy	31.0	Group Stage
2014	Netherlands	31.0	3rd
2014	Uruguay	31.0	Round of 16
2014	England	31.0	Group Stage
2014	Chile	41.0	Round of 16
2014	Portugal	41.0	Group Stage
2014	Russia	61.0	Group Stage
2014	Switzerland	91.0	Round of 16
2014	Ecuador	121.0	Group Stage
2014	Ivory Coast	121.0	Group Stage
2014	Japan	121.0	Group Stage
2014	Mexico	121.0	Round of 16
2014	Croatia	176.0	Group Stage
2014	USA	176.0	Round of 16
2014	Bosnia & Herzegovina	226.0	Group Stage
2014	Ghana	226.0	Group Stage
2014	Greece	226.0	Round of 16
2014	Nigeria	226.0	Round of 16
2014	South Korea	301.0	Group Stage
2014	Australia	601.0	Group Stage
2014	Cameroon	1201.0	Group Stage
2014	Costa Rica	1201.0	Qtr Finals
2014	Algeria	1651.0	Round of 16
2014	Honduras	2251.0	Group Stage
2014	Iran	2851.0	Group Stage

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2018 World Cup Winner Odds

Defending champions Germany entered the 2018 World Cup as favourites at odds of 6.40 and failed to reach the knockout stage.

Eventual champions France began the tournament as third favourites at odds of 7.8, behind Brazil at odds of 7.0. Spain and Argentina filled out the top five in the market, with both nations eliminated in the Round of 16.

The biggest surprises at the 2018 World Cup were Sweden who reached the quarter finals after starting the tournament at odds of 101.0.

Table 12: 2018 World Cup Winner odds

Tournament	Nation	Odds	Result
2018	Germany	6.40	Group Stage
2018	Brazil	7.0	Qtr Finals
2018	France	7.80	WINNER
2018	Spain	9.30	Round of 16
2018	Argentina	10.80	Round of 16
2018	Belgium	15.20	3rd
2018	England	24.50	4th
2018	Portugal	24.50	Round of 16
2018	Colombia	31.0	Round of 16
2018	Uruguay	31.0	Qtr Finals
2018	Croatia	36.0	Runner Up
2018	Russia (HOST)	36.0	Qtr Finals
2018	Poland	51.0	Group Stage
2018	Mexico	71.0	Round of 16
2018	Denmark	101.0	Round of 16
2018	Sweden	101.0	Qtr Finals
2018	Switzerland	101.0	Round of 16
2018	Egypt	176.0	Group Stage
2018	Japan	176.0	Round of 16
2018	Senegal	176.0	Group Stage
2018	Serbia	176.0	Group Stage
2018	Iceland	231.0	Group Stage
2018	Nigeria	231.0	Group Stage
2018	Peru	231.0	Group Stage
2018	Australia	301.0	Group Stage
2018	Costa Rica	301.0	Group Stage
2018	Iran	301.0	Group Stage
2018	Morocco	301.0	Group Stage
2018	South Korea	601.0	Group Stage
2018	Tunisia	601.0	Group Stage
2018	Panama	1201.0	Group Stage
2018	Saudi Arabia	1201.0	Group Stage

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2022 World Cup Winner Odds

Who will be the surprises of the 2022 World Cup? Will the favourites dominate as they did in 2018? Below are the current odds for the 2022 World Cup as at 27th October 2022.

If you’re keen to enter the World Cup outright winner market, take a look at who our team of expert football writers are backing.

Table 13: 2022 World Cup Winner odds as at 27th October 2022.

Tournament	Nation	Odds
2022	Brazil	6.0
2022	France	7.50
2022	England	9.0
2022	Argentina	9.0
2022	Spain	9.50
2022	Germany	11.0
2022	Portugal	17.0
2022	Netherlands	17.0
2022	Belgium	18.0
2022	Denmark	41.0
2022	Uruguay	61.0
2022	Croatia	67.0
2022	Senegal	101.0
2022	Switzerland	126.0
2022	Serbia	151.0
2022	Mexico	226.0
2022	Poland	226.0
2022	USA	226.0
2022	Ecuador	301.0
2022	Wales	301.0
2022	Cameroon	301.0
2022	Ghana	301.0
2022	Morocco	301.0
2022	Japan	301.0
2022	South Korea	401.0
2022	Canada	501.0
2022	Australia	501.0
2022	Qatar	501.0
2022	Tunisia	501.0
2022	Saudi Arabia	751.0
2022	Iran	801.0
2022	Costa Rica	1001.0

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• Football betting analysis at bettingexpert News
• World Cup betting analysis at bettingexpert News