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football | Tuesday, October 25, 2022 12:18 PM (Revised at: Monday, October 31, 2022 12:40 PM)
History Says.....Bet Against Top Ranked FIFA Nations at the World Cup
Andrew Brocker
1
Are FIFA rankings a reliable way of assessing team form entering a World Cup? Is it worth betting on the top ranked FIFA nations?
In this article:
- Performance by FIFA Rankings
- Performance by FIFA Rankings Differential
- Betting On FIFA Rankings
- FIFA Rankings for 2022 World Cup
In this analysis I will be taking a look at the performance of FIFA team rankings at the World Cup from 1994 onwards. I will further be taking a look at how each nation competing at the 2022 World Cup has performed against top 10 FIFA nations and also taking a look at the performance based on FIFA ranking differentials. I have excluded 3rd place playoffs with knockout stage match results determined by the result at the conclusion of regular time with extra time and penalties excluded.
Lastly, I will take a look at each FIFA ranking and how they have performed at the World Cup in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap betting markets since 1998. Betting results have been determined by betting at even stakes, i.e betting a single unit on each possible outcome in a given betting market. I have used average odds adjusted to standard bookmaker commission of 4.5% with odds provided from my own archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.
What are FIFA rankings?
The FIFA rankings list each footballing nation by total points earned from results in FIFA recognised international football matches. The manner in which nations earn points has changed a number of times since 1994. Since 2018, FIFA has adopted an Elo rating system. You can read a full explanation on the FIFA rankings wikipedia page.
For the purposes of this article I have used FIFA rankings for each World Cup nation, based on their ranking prior to the kickoff of each World Cup tournament, 1994 through 2018.
Performance By FIFA Ranking
Let’s begin by taking a look at the performance of teams based on their FIFA Ranking.
Breaking down rankings into groups of ten, we can see that, as we would have expected, higher ranked nations have performed better at the World Cup.
Table 1: Performance of FIFA Rankings (Grouped by 10 places)
| FIFA Rank | Matches | WON | DRAW | LOST | Ave Pts | Ave GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-10 | 291 | 146 | 76 | 69 | 1.77 | +0.50 |
| 11-20 | 212 | 88 | 61 | 63 | 1.53 | +0.30 |
| 21-30 | 144 | 37 | 41 | 66 | 1.06 | -0.29 |
| 31-40 | 99 | 21 | 29 | 49 | 0.93 | -0.65 |
| 41-50 | 66 | 12 | 17 | 37 | 0.80 | -0.80 |
| 51+ | 46 | 8 | 10 | 28 | 0.74 | -1.09 |
Below is the performance of each FIFA ranking at World Cups since 1994.
Table 2: Performance of FIFA Rankings
| FIFA RankING | Matches | WON | DRAW | LOST | AVE Pts | AVE GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 31 | 16 | 4 | 11 | 1.68 | +0.35 |
| 2 | 39 | 26 | 6 | 7 | 2.15 | +1.00 |
| 3 | 30 | 17 | 8 | 5 | 1.97 | +0.77 |
| 4 | 29 | 13 | 11 | 5 | 1.72 | +0.28 |
| 5 | 33 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 1.48 | +0.30 |
| 6 | 26 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 1.65 | +0.69 |
| 7 | 35 | 22 | 6 | 7 | 2.06 | +0.43 |
| 8 | 32 | 17 | 8 | 7 | 1.84 | +0.53 |
| 9 | 15 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 1.07 | +0.00 |
| 10 | 21 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 1.43 | +0.19 |
| 11 | 22 | 11 | 3 | 8 | 1.64 | +0.59 |
| 12 | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 1.31 | +0.15 |
| 13 | 22 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 1.55 | +0.23 |
| 14 | 22 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 1.82 | +0.45 |
| 15 | 20 | 9 | 6 | 5 | 1.65 | +0.55 |
| 16 | 18 | 7 | 7 | 4 | 1.56 | +0.33 |
| 17 | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 1.40 | +0.27 |
| 18 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 8 | 1.48 | +0.19 |
| 19 | 25 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 1.48 | +0.44 |
| 20 | 21 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 1.48 | -0.19 |
| 21 | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 0.67 | -0.67 |
| 22 | 17 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 1.24 | +0.06 |
| 23 | 20 | 3 | 7 | 10 | 0.80 | -0.55 |
| 24 | 17 | 4 | 6 | 7 | 1.06 | -0.59 |
| 25 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.33 | +0.17 |
| 26 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 | -1.00 |
| 27 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 8 | 1.22 | +0.06 |
| 28 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.09 | +0.00 |
| 29 | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1.42 | +0.05 |
| 30 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 | -1.33 |
| 31 | 14 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 0.64 | -1.00 |
| 32 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1.33 | +0.08 |
| 33 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0.50 | -1.17 |
| 34 | 20 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 0.75 | -1.35 |
| 35 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.29 | -0.29 |
| 36 | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 0.83 | -0.67 |
| 37 | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | 0.92 | -0.25 |
| 38 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 | -1.17 |
| 39 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.50 | +0.25 |
| 40 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1.50 | +0.33 |
| 41 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.33 | -1.00 |
| 42 | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 1.17 | -0.17 |
| 43 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.33 | -1.00 |
| 44 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.57 | -1.43 |
| 45 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 1.17 | -0.33 |
| 46 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.33 | -1.33 |
| 47 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0.71 | -0.86 |
| 48 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 1.29 | -0.43 |
| 49 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.67 | -1.00 |
| 50 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| 55 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.00 |
| 56 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -2.67 |
| 57 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.67 | -0.44 |
| 61 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0.57 | -0.86 |
| 62 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| 67 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1.00 | -1.67 |
| 70 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.60 | +0.80 |
| 74 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1.50 | -0.75 |
| 78 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 83 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.33 | -0.67 |
| 105 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -3.67 |
Performance By FIFA Ranking Differential
The tables below shows match results based on the differential in FIFA rankings. For example, if a nation is ranked 10th and is competing against a nation ranked 20th, the team ranked 10th has a ranking differential of +10.
Breaking differentials by ten, we see (again as expected) that the greater the differential the greater the points share and average goal difference. For examples, nations that played an opponent that was ranked 31 places or more below them in the FIFA rankings won 57 of 89 matches played, saw an average of 2.16 match points per match and an average goal difference of +1.2 goals.
Table 3: Performance based on FIFA Ranking Differentials (Grouped by differentials of 10)
| FIFA Rank DIFFERENCE | Matches | WON | DRAW | LOST | AVE Pts | AVE GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-10 Places | 162 | 67 | 52 | 43 | 1.56 | +0.27 |
| 11-20 Places | 107 | 52 | 30 | 25 | 1.74 | +0.46 |
| 21-30 Places | 71 | 43 | 14 | 14 | 2.01 | +0.82 |
| 31+ | 89 | 57 | 21 | 11 | 2.16 | +1.20 |
The table below shows match results for each FIFA ranking differentials.
Table 4: Performance based on FIFA Ranking Differentials
| FIFA Rank DIFF. | Matches | WON | DRAW | LOST | AVE Pts | AVE GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 1.50 | +0.32 |
| 2 | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1.75 | +0.63 |
| 3 | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 1.44 | -0.06 |
| 4 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1.54 | +0.31 |
| 5 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1.53 | +0.00 |
| 6 | 20 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 1.35 | +0.15 |
| 7 | 18 | 8 | 6 | 4 | 1.67 | +0.50 |
| 8 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1.54 | +0.23 |
| 9 | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 1.62 | +0.15 |
| 10 | 14 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1.79 | +0.43 |
| 11 | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 1.53 | -0.20 |
| 12 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1.89 | +0.78 |
| 13 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| 14 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1.60 | +0.30 |
| 15 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1.63 | +0.00 |
| 16 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 0 | 2.47 | +1.40 |
| 17 | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 1.50 | +0.13 |
| 18 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1.25 | +0.50 |
| 19 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 20 | 10 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 2.60 | +1.50 |
| 21 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1.75 | +0.63 |
| 22 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.29 | +0.14 |
| 23 | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 2.22 | +1.67 |
| 24 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1.67 | +0.67 |
| 25 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 1.20 | -0.40 |
| 26 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2.00 | +0.50 |
| 27 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2.33 | +1.50 |
| 28 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 2.40 | +1.60 |
| 29 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 2.70 | +0.80 |
| 30 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.50 |
| 31 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1.60 | +0.20 |
| 32 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2.25 | +1.13 |
| 33 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2.50 | +1.50 |
| 34 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 1.38 | +0.00 |
| 35 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2.17 | +2.00 |
| 36 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.33 |
| 37 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.50 |
| 38 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2.60 | +2.00 |
| 39 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| 40 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2.60 | +2.00 |
| 41 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2.25 | +0.75 |
| 42 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.00 |
| 43 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2.00 | +1.67 |
| 44 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 45 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.50 | +0.50 |
| 46 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.50 | +-0.50 |
| 47 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2.50 | +1.75 |
| 48 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +3.00 |
| 50 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2.00 | +0.50 |
| 52 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +3.00 |
| 53 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2.60 | +1.40 |
| 56 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.50 | +0.50 |
| 58 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.00 |
| 59 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| 60 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 61 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +3.00 |
| 66 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 67 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +3.00 |
| 73 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.00 | +0.00 |
| 74 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| 78 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +3.00 |
| 102 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +7.00 |
| 104 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.00 |
World Cup 2022 Nations vs Top 10 Nations
The table below shows the performance of each nation competing at the 2022 World Cup when they have faced FIFA top 10 nations since 1994.
The stand out nations have been France and Germany who have lost just three matches against top 10 nations across 19 matches played.
Oddly enough, Argentina are yet to defeat a top 10 nation at the World Cup, remembering the rankings only go back to 1994 and extra time and penalty wins in the knockout stage are marked as draws.
Table 5: Performance of each 2022 World Cup nation vs Top 10 nations at World Cups since 1994
| Nation | Matches | WON | DRAW | LOST | AVE Pts | AVE GD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 8 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.63 | -0.75 |
| Australia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | -2.50 |
| Belgium | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1.00 | -0.43 |
| Brazil | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 1.23 | -0.31 |
| Cameroon | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | -1.40 |
| Costa Rica | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1.33 | -0.34 |
| Croatia | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 1.13 | +0.00 |
| Denmark | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.00 | -0.25 |
| Ecuador | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | -1.25 |
| England | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0.89 | -0.44 |
| France | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2.63 | +1.37 |
| Germany | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1.73 | +1.36 |
| Ghana | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.17 | -0.33 |
| Iran | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0.14 | -1.28 |
| Japan | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.00 | -1.66 |
| Mexico | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0.91 | -0.36 |
| Morocco | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.40 | -1.00 |
| Netherlands | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 1.55 | +0.45 |
| Poland | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Portugal | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1.13 | -0.50 |
| Saudi Arabia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | -1.33 |
| Senegal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3.00 | +1.00 |
| Serbia | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0.67 | -1.50 |
| South Korea | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 1.11 | -0.34 |
| Spain | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1.29 | -0.15 |
| Switzerland | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1.50 | +0.17 |
| Tunisia | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | -2.00 |
| Uruguay | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1.38 | -0.25 |
| USA | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0.80 | -0.60 |
Betting on FIFA Rankings
1×2 Market Betting
Top 10 nations have under formed at the World Cup in the 1X2 market since 1998. Betting on nations outside the top 10 when facing top 10 nations would have seen you see a profit of +7.64 units from 170 matches, a return of +4.5%.
We can see that betting against the number 1 ranked FIFA nation has been especially profitable, a point we will return to shortly.
Table 6: Performance of FIFA top 10 Nations vs Nations outside the FIFA top 10 in the 1X2 betting market since 1998
| FIFA Ranking | Matches | WIN P/L | DRAW P/L | LOSS P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | -4.32 | -13.95 | +34.72 |
| 2 | 23 | +4.47 | -11.94 | +3.15 |
| 3 | 15 | +2.11 | +1.58 | -11.05 |
| 4 | 15 | +0.29 | +2.88 | -11.99 |
| 5 | 21 | -6.03 | +0.07 | +8.77 |
| 6 | 16 | -0.03 | -9.15 | +3.95 |
| 7 | 18 | +3.48 | -7.82 | -3.05 |
| 8 | 21 | -2.13 | +5.91 | -13.34 |
| 9 | 10 | -6.89 | +7.35 | +3.88 |
| 10 | 10 | -2.51 | +5.85 | -7.4 |
| Total | 170 | -11.56 | -19.22 | +7.64 |
Asian Handicap Market Betting
Let’s see if these results have been reflected in Asian handicap betting.
As we did with 1X2 betting, we can see that betting against top 10 nations has been profitable in the Asian handicap market.
If you had bet against top 10 nations opposing nations outside the top 10 in the Asian handicap market since 1998, you would have seen a profit of +9.19 units from 170 matches, a return of +5.4% profit. The Asian handicap win rate for teams outside the top 10 when playing top 10 nations has been 55.1%.
Table 7: Performance of FIFA top 10 Nations vs Nations outside the FIFA top 10 in the Asian handicap betting market since 1998
| FIFA Ranking | Matches | Ah WON | Ah LOST | Ah WIN P/L | Ah LOST P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 21 | 7.5 | 13.5 | -6.39 | +5.13 |
| 2 | 23 | 12.5 | 10.5 | +1.79 | -2.86 |
| 3 | 15 | 9 | 6 | +2.3 | -3.46 |
| 4 | 15 | 8.25 | 6.75 | +1.02 | -1.81 |
| 5 | 21 | 7.5 | 13.5 | -6.57 | +4.23 |
| 6 | 16 | 7.5 | 8.5 | -1.19 | +0.28 |
| 7 | 18 | 9.75 | 8.25 | +0.79 | -2.31 |
| 8 | 21 | 8.5 | 12.5 | -4.45 | +2.85 |
| 9 | 10 | 3.25 | 6.75 | -3.66 | +2.69 |
| 10 | 10 | 2.5 | 7.5 | -5.08 | +4.44 |
| Total | 170 | 76.25 | 93.75 | -21.44 | +9.19 |
Betting Against Number 1 Ranked Nations
Of all rankings, nations ranked 1st have performed disastrously at the World Cup in both the 1X2 and Asian handicap markets.
In fact, it is due to the performance of 1st ranked nations that the top 10 as a whole have performed so poorly.
Table 8: Performance of number 1 ranked FIFA Nations in the 1X2 betting market since 1998.
| Year | Nation | Matches | WON P/L | DRAW P/L | LOSS P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Brazil | 7 | -1.62 | -3.95 | +2.77 |
| 2002 | France | 3 | -3 | +1 | +12.93 |
| 2006 | Brazil | 5 | +0.4 | -5 | +0.2 |
| 2010 | Brazil | 5 | -0.59 | -2.06 | -0.89 |
| 2014 | Spain | 3 | -1.61 | -3 | +7.53 |
| 2018 | Germany | 3 | -1.54 | -3 | +22.85 |
| Total | 26 | -7.96 | -16.01 | 45.39 |
In the 1X2 market, betting against nations ranked 1st in the FIFA rankings entering the World Cup against all opponents has returned a profit of +45.39 units from 26 matches, a return of +175%.
In the Asian handicap market, betting against nations ranked 1st in the FIFA rankings entering the World Cup has returned a profit of +7.21 units, a return of +27.7%. Betting against 1st ranked FIFA nations in the Asian handicap has achieved a win rate of 66.3%.
Table 9: Performance of number 1 ranked FIFA Nations in the Asian handicap betting market since 1998.
| Year | Nation | Matches | Ah WON | Ah LOST | AH W P/L | AH L P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | Brazil | 7 | 2 | 5 | -3.18 | +2.42 |
| 2002 | France | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | +2.88 |
| 2006 | Brazil | 5 | 3 | 2 | +0.69 | -1.12 |
| 2010 | Brazil | 5 | 2.25 | 2.75 | -0.49 | 0.13 |
| 2014 | Spain | 3 | 1 | 2 | -1.09 | +0.89 |
| 2018 | Germany | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2 | +2.01 |
| Total | 26 | 8.75 | 17.25 | -9.07 | +7.21 |
FIFA Rankings Entering the 2022 World Cup
Below is the full list of FIFA rankings for each nation competing in the 2022 World Cup, their opponents and opponent rankings.
If we are looking to bet against top 10 nations against nations outside the top 10, there are a total of 28 opportunities through the group stage.
Meanwhile current FIFA number 1 ranked nation, Brazil face Serbia, Switzerland and Cameroon, matches in which their opposition are receiving at least a goal in the Asian handicap market.
| FIFA Rank | Nation | Match 1 | Rank | Match 2 | Rank | Match 3 | Rank | Ave Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brazil | Serbia | 21 | Switzerland | 15 | Cameroon | 43 | 26 |
| 2 | Belgium | Canada | 41 | Morocco | 22 | Croatia | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Argentina | Saudi Arabia | 51 | Mexico | 13 | Poland | 26 | 30 |
| 4 | France | Australia | 38 | Denmark | 10 | Tunisia | 30 | 26 |
| 5 | England | Iran | 20 | USA | 16 | Wales | 19 | 18 |
| 7 | Spain | Costa Rica | 31 | Germany | 11 | Japan | 24 | 22 |
| 8 | Netherlands | Senegal | 18 | Ecuador | 44 | Qatar | 50 | 37 |
| 9 | Portugal | Ghana | 61 | Uruguay | 14 | South Korea | 28 | 34 |
| 10 | Denmark | Tunisia | 30 | France | 4 | Australia | 38 | 24 |
| 11 | Germany | Japan | 24 | Spain | 7 | Costa Rica | 31 | 21 |
| 12 | Croatia | Morocco | 22 | Canada | 41 | Belgium | 2 | 22 |
| 13 | Mexico | Poland | 26 | Argentina | 3 | Saudi Arabia | 51 | 27 |
| 14 | Uruguay | South Korea | 28 | Portugal | 9 | Ghana | 61 | 33 |
| 15 | Switzerland | Cameroon | 43 | Brazil | 1 | Serbia | 21 | 22 |
| 16 | USA | Wales | 19 | England | 5 | Iran | 20 | 15 |
| 18 | Senegal | Netherlands | 8 | Qatar | 50 | Ecuador | 44 | 34 |
| 19 | Wales | USA | 16 | Iran | 20 | England | 5 | 14 |
| 20 | Iran | England | 5 | Wales | 19 | USA | 16 | 13 |
| 21 | Serbia | Brazil | 1 | Cameroon | 43 | Switzerland | 15 | 20 |
| 22 | Morocco | Croatia | 12 | Belgium | 2 | Canada | 41 | 18 |
| 24 | Japan | Germany | 11 | Costa Rica | 31 | Spain | 7 | 16 |
| 26 | Poland | Mexico | 13 | Saudi Arabia | 51 | Argentina | 3 | 22 |
| 28 | South Korea | Uruguay | 14 | Ghana | 61 | Portugal | 9 | 28 |
| 30 | Tunisia | Denmark | 10 | Australia | 38 | France | 4 | 17 |
| 31 | Costa Rica | Spain | 7 | Japan | 24 | Germany | 11 | 14 |
| 38 | Australia | France | 4 | Tunisia | 30 | Denmark | 10 | 15 |
| 41 | Canada | Belgium | 2 | Croatia | 12 | Morocco | 22 | 12 |
| 43 | Cameroon | Switzerland | 15 | Serbia | 21 | Brazil | 1 | 12 |
| 44 | Ecuador | Qatar | 50 | Netherlands | 8 | Senegal | 18 | 25 |
| 50 | Qatar | Ecuador | 44 | Senegal | 18 | Netherlands | 8 | 23 |
| 51 | Saudi Arabia | Argentina | 3 | Poland | 26 | Mexico | 13 | 14 |
| 61 | Ghana | Portugal | 9 | South Korea | 28 | Uruguay | 14 | 17 |
Conclusions: Betting Against The Grain
As has been shown in my other World Cup analysis, it has been profitable to bet against both favourites and defending World Cup champions.
This is reflected in the performance of top 10 ranked FIFA nations and especially in the performance of nations ranking 1st in the FIFA rankings entering the World Cup. five of whom have been defending World Cup champions.
The majority of World Cup punters will be betting into markets with little knowledge of anything except what the nation has done historically and where they are currently ranked. Once again, it may pay to bet against those nations at the front of the market and look for value in underdogs that will see little interest from casual punters this World Cup.
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