Scott Thornton’s Premier League Props: Best Bets Preview

Scott Thornton brings you his six best bets from the Premier League ahead of the weekend’s fixtures.

Manchester City host Wolves on Friday night. Aston Villa kick things off against Fulham on Saturday. The later kick-off sees Arsenal take on Bournemouth. On Sunday, Chelsea are aiming to secure crucial points against Liverpool. Monday Night Football sees Nottingham Forest travel to take on Crystal Palace.

• Manchester City vs Wolves: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match
• Aston Villa vs Fulham: Under 29.5 Throws In the Match
• Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Under 33.5 Throws In The Match
• Brighton vs Newcastle: Over 17.5 Tackles For Newcastle
• Chelsea vs Liverpool: Under 27.5 Free Kicks In The Match
• Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Over 33.5 Throws In The Match

Acca odds: 31.57

Manchester City vs Wolves: Pep Seeks More Control

England, Premier League, Friday, 2nd May, 20:00 (UK)

Manchester City secured their place in the FA Cup final by beating Nottingham Forest last weekend. Pep Guardiola’s side now turn their attention to securing a place in next season’s Champions League. They currently sit 4th, one point above both Chelsea and Forest.

Vitor Pereira will be enjoying what he’s seeing from his team at the moment. They come into this match on the back of six consecutive wins. Over that period, they have scored an average of 2.17 goals per game and conceded just 0.67. However, a trip to the Etihad should prove to be a tougher test.

There were 25 shots when these teams went toe-to-toe earlier in the season and we are banking on under 25.5 attempts here. Wolves’ last game at the Etihad saw 22 shots. In fact, this bet has won in the last six head-to-heads between with those matches seeing an average of 23.33.

Wolves’ matches have seen the third-fewest shots in the Premier League with an average of 23.97 per game. There have been 25 shots or fewer in five of the Old Gold’s last seven away matches in the league. Those have seen 21.86 shots on average.

• Selection: Under 25.5 Shots In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.83
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Aston Villa vs Fulham: The Villains’ Numbers Tell the Story

England, Premier League, Saturday, 3rd May, 12:30 (UK)

Aston Villa have work to do if they are to secure a place in the top five. They are 7th in the Premier League, three points behind Chelsea, who are in the final Champions League qualification place. Unai Emery’s men need to bounce back from their FA Cup disappointment.

Fulham are one place and six points behind Villa, ahead of matchday 35. They came from behind to beat Southampton 2-1 last weekend, but it was just their second win in six competitive matches. Marco Silva knows 9th could be enough to secure a European place, so finishing the season strongly is hugely important.

The Villains’ matches have seen the fewest throws in the Premier League with an average of just 25.74, so we are backing under 29.5 in this match. This bet has won in Aston Villa’s last six home league matches. Emery’s side are patient in possession and have the quality to play around the opposition press, contributing to the lower throw count.

The Cottagers’ away matches average 300.71, marginally over the line here, but the head-to-head numbers show promise. There were 27 throws when the teams squared off earlier in the season. The last meeting at Villa Park saw just 25 throws.

• Selection: Under 29.5 Throws In the Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Arsenal vs Bournemouth: Dwindling Throw Counts at the Emirates

England, Premier League, Saturday, 3rd May, 17:30 (UK)

Arsenal will have one eye on the second leg of their Champions League semi-final against PSG. Mikel Arteta’s side were unable to get their hands on the Premier League title this season, but they still have the chance to salvage European success, so expect heavy rotation here.

Bournemouth have won just one of their last 11 competitive matches. The poor run has seen them drop to 10th in the table. The underlying data suggests they should be much further up the table. Only Liverpool and Arsenal have a higher xPTS (expected points) than the Cherries.

The match throw line also looks a little high in this one. Arsenal matches have seen an average of 29.68 throws in the Premier League. This drops to 28.82 if we only use the data from their matches at the Emirates. Arteta’s side will be looking ahead to the PSG encounter, so they won’t attack with real venom here, which should lower the throw count even further.

The Cherries’ matches have seen the most throws in the division, with an average of 40.18. However, there were just 30 throws when they faced Arsenal earlier in the season. Bournemouth’s last match at the Emirates also saw just 30 throws.

• Selection: Under 33.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Brighton vs Newcastle: A Key Clash for the Visitors

England, Premier League, Sunday, 4th May, 14:00 (UK)

Brighton are 9th in the table, six points behind 7th-place Aston Villa. Fabian Hurzeler’s side have lost momentum in recent weeks, but they could still earn a place in Europe thanks to the performance of English teams in UEFA competitions. The Seagulls ended a six-match winless run by beating West Ham last time out. They could do with another win here.

Newcastle are sitting pretty in 3rd place. The 4-1 defeat at Aston Villa proved to be a minor hiccup. The Magpies bounced back with a 3-0 win over Ipswich and have now won seven of their last eight matches across all competitions.

The Seagulls’ matches have seen plenty of tackles. The manager is keen for his players to run with the ball, and this has meant there has been an average of 38.03 tackles when Brighton take to the field. Their opponents are averaging 19.53 tackles per league game at the Amex.

The Magpies have already faced Brighton twice this season. They made 21 tackles in normal time of the FA Cup meeting in March. Newcastle made 26 tackles in the earlier league meeting.

• Selection: Over 17.5 Tackles For Newcastle (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Chelsea vs Liverpool: The Reds Don’t Need to Fight

England, Premier League, Sunday, 4th May, 16:30 (UK)

The fight for a place in the Champions League is hotting up, and Chelsea are right in the thick of it. Enzo Maresca’s side are level on points with Forest but hold on to that coveted 5th spot thanks to their superior goal difference.

Liverpool secured the Premier League trophy at Anfield last weekend. The players will have been in party mode all week, but will that have an impact on their performance at Stamford Bridge? Arne Slot’s have lost just one league away game all season.

This is one of the trickier matches to bet on with the title already in the bag, but we are tipping under 27.5 free kicks. Chelsea’s Premier League home matches have seen an average of 22.71 fouls and 4.18 offsides. Moreover, Simon Hooper is at the whistle for this one, the second most lenient referee in the division in terms of fouls.

The Reds’ league away matches in 2025 have seen an average of 19.25 fouls and 4.88 offsides. There have been 27 free kicks or fewer in six of those matches. Liverpool should also play with less intensity now that the league is won.

• Selection: Under 27.5 Free Kicks In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.72
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Crystal Palace vs Nottingham Forest: Nuno Needs Wins in Pursuit of Europe

England, Premier League, Monday, 5th May, 15:00 (UK)

Crystal Palace’s start to the season has proven costly. They have performed excellently since the turn of the year and could have been in European contention if they weren’t as slow out of the blocks.

Nottingham Forest are aiming to secure a place in the top five in the final weeks of the season. They face Brentford on Thursday night ahead of this game. Nuno’s side need to put points on the board if they are to get ahead of their European rivals.

Six of Palace’s eight Premier League home matches in 2025 have seen 34 throws or more, with an average of 38.13. Their last three home league games have exceeded the 40 mark so over 33.5 looks doable.

Forest’s away games have seen 33.53 throws on average. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side often sit in and look to counter, meaning the throw counts fluctuate, but the numbers against Palace are good. This bet has won in both meetings with the Eagles since Nuno took charge.

• Selection: Over 33.5 Throws In The Match (TRACKED BET)
• Best Odds: 1.80
• Bookmaker: bet365
• Stake: 8/10

Premier League Props Acca Tips Odds via bet365 as at 17:11, May 1st, 2025. Odds may now differ.

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