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Mixed martial arts The Cards Column Tips: EFL Farewell Cards
Our cards and bookings expert Matt Kirby continues to fire in the winners. He picked out two successful match picks at 1.95 and 2.1 last Saturday, so we’ve asked him back to pick out some of his favourite angles this weekend.
The curtain comes down on the EFL campaign on Saturday, with plenty still to be decided. Matt has two picks in the Championship, shining the spotlight on the play-off race and relegation battle. His final selection comes in League Two.
- Bristol City vs Preston: Over 3 cards & each team over 0.5 second-half cards
- West Brom vs Luton: Callum Styles To Be Booked & Darnell Furlong to be booked
- Carlisle vs Salford: 40+ booking points
Referee Appointments: A PL debut for Webb & Attwell selected
David Webb is finally recognised for some solid work in the Championship in recent seasons by being handed a Premier League debut. It’s a top-flight game in name only with Leicester and Southampton already relegated.
Rob Jones is at Villa Park where Aston Villa aim to enhance their Champions League push against Fulham. Simon Hooper has champions Liverpool as they visit Chelsea on Sunday.
On the final day in the Championship, FA Cup final referee Stuart Attwell has the play-off shootout between Coventry and Middlesbrough. John Busby, Darren Bond and James Linington have the games involving Hull, Luton and Preston in the bid to avoid the drop.
In League One, Neil Hair has shown four red cards in his last EFL games. He takes charge of Northampton v Wigan. Select Group 2 ref Dean Whitestone has Leyton Orient’s trip to Huddersfield, while Michael Barlow could be one to go cardless in Rotherham v Peterborough. He’s only averaging 1.8 cards across his 10 league games.
Martin Coy is at Bradford, who are in pole position for automatic promotion from League Two. Stumbling Walsall are at Crewe, with Matt Cortlett in the middle. Simon Mather is at Brunton Park, where Salford aim to hold onto the final play-off spot against already-relegated Carlisle.
Bristol City vs Preston: Impact at both ends
England, Championship, Saturday, May 3rd, 12:30 (UK)
Let’s start with an admission. I had jotted down an angle for Coventry’s clash with Middlesbrough for this week’s first tip. However, having been priced at 1.95 on Wednesday night, it crashed and was around 1.72 when I sat down to finish the article off on Thursday.
So, it was a case of heading back to the drawing board. But I’ve fallen onto something in the game at Ashton Gate, where Bristol City are aiming to complete a magnificent campaign in the play-offs. For Preston, it’s about survival and bettering Hull’s result to stay in the second tier.
Given the importance of this fixture at both ends of the table, I didn’t mind taking a similar approach to last week’s winner in the Lilywhites home defeat to Plymouth. So, it’s a case of rinse and repeat.
Combine over three match cards with each team to pick up over 0.5 second-half cards for a 2.0 Bet Builder on bet365, which looks a decent approach.
Liam Manning’s side aren’t one of the more physical sides in the league, with their 1.64 yellows per game average. That’s one of the lower figures compared to Preston, who average 2.51, which is the joint-most with Portsmouth.
But there’s enough juice in the price, as well as reasons for them to be as cynical as necessary to secure their play-off berth.
The Robins have picked up at least one card in the second half in 18 of their 22 home league games this season. And if Preston are piling on the pressure late in the game, expect a bit of time wasting at any opportunity from the restarts.
For the visitors, they’ve picked up 1+ card in the second half in 20 of 22 away games, including three in defeats at Hull and Sheffield Utd, plus a couple in losses at Derby and Sunderland.
Obviously, the bulk of the lifting here is on Preston to keep it tight before trying to win it or just imploding if the players start to hear results are going against them elsewhere.
The case for this bet is strengthened by the meeting at Deepdale earlier in the season. Bristol City ran out 3-1 winners in a game that saw the yellow card brandished seven times. After the break, Preston picked up two cautions to City’s three, which places some nice emphasis on this angle.
Despite James Linington (3.9 cards per game) being in charge, this bet is still a play. I mentioned the whistler for Derby v Luton, where it took him until stoppage time to seal the deal, but he got there in the end!
The Isle of Wight official has taken charge of four Bristol City league games this season, with this bet landing on each occasion:
- Bristol City v Leeds: 4 match cards, 1-2 split second half
- Watford v Bristol City: 4 match cards, 2-2 split second half
- Sheffield Wednesday v Bristol City: 4 match cards, 1-1 split second half
- Bristol City v Hull, 4 yellows + 1 red, 1-3 split second half
To cap it off for Linington, his only game involving Preston saw seven yellows in their win at Cardiff in December. That saw a 1-3 second-half split with three Lilywhites being booked.
With the referee’s last five league games all seeing at least four cards, he’s not started to pack them away for the summer. So, with two teams having business to attend to, he could find himself busy keeping a lid on things.
- Selection: Over 3 cards & each team over 0.5 second-half cards (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 2.0
- Bookmaker: bet365
- Stake: 8/10
Callum Style To Be Booked & Darnell Furlong To Be Booked: Busy Baggies
England, Championship, Saturday, May 3rd, 12:30 (UK)
At about 13:00 last Saturday, I was left ruing the fact I turned down the opportunity to take Coventry players to be booked at Luton. Especially after Jay Dasilva saw red at Kenilworth Road.
I’m simply not letting the chance go begging this weekend when Luton face a game they might have to win if they want to avoid back-to-back relegations.
Matt Bloomfield has been getting a tune out of his Hatters’ players with Thelo Aasgaard, Millenic Alli and Isiah Jones all proving a constant threat.
With that in mind, I’ll do something I rarely do. I’ll split a unit across two West Brom players and target their full-backs. Callum Styles and Darnell Furlong, come on down!
Only Jayson Molumby (10 yellows & a red) has picked up more bookings than the pair this season, with Styles (9 yellows & a red) and Furlong (7 yellows & a red). So, both are well used to having their names taken by the referee.
With that, the emphasis of this bet comes on full-backs struggling to keep some of this lightning fast Luton frontline quiet. In the Hatters’ last 10 games, these are the full-backs who have been carded:
- Burnley’s Lucas Pires (LB)
- Cardiff’s Callum O’Dowda (LB)
- Boro pair Anfernee Dijksteel (RB) and Sammy-Iling Junior (LB)
- Leeds’ Jayden Bogle (RB)
- Stoke’s Junior Tchamadeu (RB)
- Blackburn’s Kristi Montgomery (RB)
- Bristol City’s Ross McCrorie (RWB)
- Coventry’s Jay Dasilva (LB)
That’s four left-backs and five right-backs who have been carded against this Luton side. Montgomery and Dasilva the unfortunate pair to both see red as well, if you wanted to take it a step further.
West Brom don’t have anything to play for, which should see the visitors able to get on the front foot in this one.
That said, Styles is a player who can’t usually help himself when there’s a challenge to be made. The Hungarian has committed 2+ fouls in 14 of his last 20 starts, including being sent off at Coventry and picking up five further yellows.
Furlong might be a harder sell after going three games without a foul. But he’d previously committed three in games against both Bristol City and Sunderland, while getting booked for one against Watford.
If you’re a fan of looking at previous meetings, it might be worth noting that two Baggies were booked when the sides met in November.
Furlong saw yellow in the 41st minute – the first caution of the game – and was followed by Styles 10 minutes into the second half. The same again, fellas!
Paddy Power and Betfair have the best prices for this pair. They’ve got Furlong at 6.0 and Styles at 7.0. However, they don’t have their Super Sub available.
Instead, I’ll head to bet365 and take the respective 5.0 and 6.0 prices, with the cover of having Sub On Play On, in case either player gets taken off. I’ve also chucked some shrapnel on the double at 29.0. Why not end the season in style?
- Selection: Callum Styles to be booked & Darnell Furlong to be booked
- Best Odds: 6.0 & 5.0
- Bookmaker:bBet3365
- Stake: 5/10 & 5/10
Carlisle vs Salford: Cumbrians to spoil Salford’s play-off push?
England, League Two, Saturday, May 3rd, 15:00 (UK)
Carlisle’s brave battle to beat the League Two drop came to an end last Saturday, losing at Cheltenham to end their spell in the Football League.
Despite being down, the Cumbrians can still spoil Salford’s play-off push. The Ammies have mounted a strong final challenge, losing just once in their last eight games. They sit in seventh, on goal difference, so the three teams below them will be looking to oust them from that top-seven spot.
The sun might be shining. One side has nothing to play for but pride. Yet I don’t imagine there’ll be much good will on show at Brunton Park.
When looking through the numbers, two things stood out:
- No side has picked up more yellow cards in home games in League Two than Carlisle – 59 at 2.68 per game.
- Only Accrington (66 from 23 away games) have seen more cautions in away games than Salford’s 65 at an average of 2.95.
The top-home collectors against a side in need of a result, who collect plenty of cards on their travels. What’s not to love?
Fifteen of Carlisle’s 22 home matches have seen 40+ booking points, while it’s 16 from 22 in Salford away games. That’s solid enough, as is the fact that they both sit at 32/45 overall, a near 72% hit rate.
Karl Robinson’s men have collected team booking points totals of 75, 30 and 40 in three of their last four in the league, so they could cover this line on their own! Meanwhile, Carlisle’s last home outing saw them hit 85 booking points against Port Vale!
Some big numbers to show why the numbers for these two is strong. And this 40+ booking points line has copped in six of their last seven head-to-heads, with the last three seeing 40 (30-10 Salford), 95 (65-30 Carlisle) and 50 (30-20 Salford). The quirk of that trio is the home side has collected the most booking points too!
The man officiating Carlisle’s final EFL game for the time being is Simon Mather. I’ve found him somewhat hit and miss for cards this season.
But, his booking points totals in his eight league games since the start of March have been 50, 40, 30, 125, 40, 35, 50 & 20. So, this bet has landed on six occasions, which is enough to prompt me to pull the trigger.
- Selection: 40+ booking points (TRACKED BET)
- Best Odds: 1.91
- Bookmaker: Sky Bet
- Stake: 7/10
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