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football | Wednesday, October 19, 2022 11:05 AM (Revised at: Monday, October 31, 2022 12:40 PM)
History Says.....Bet On Underdogs At the World Cup (Maybe?)
Andrew Brocker
2
Has it been profitable to bet on underdogs at the World Cup in the Asian handicap market? How about betting on underdogs in the 1X2 market?
In this article:
- Underdogs at the World Cup
- Betting on Underdogs at the World Cup: Asian Handicap Market
- Betting Against Underdogs at the World Cup: 1X2 Market
In this article I will be taking a look at the performance of underdogs at the World Cup since 1998. I will examine their performance in both the Asian handicap and 1X2 markets.
For the purposes of this analysis, I have determined knockout stage matches by the result at the conclusion of regulation time. I have also eliminated 3rd place playoffs from the analysis. Further all betting results are based on betting at even stakes, meaning the return you would receive had you bet 1 unit on each possible outcome in the given betting market. Odds are average odds adjusted to 4.5% bookmaker commission. Odds are from my own personal archives with gaps filled by data from BetExplorer.
Summary of Conclusions:
Since the World Cup in 1998….
- Betting on nations receiving at least +1 goal in the Asian handicap market at even stakes has returned a profit of 5.62 units from 140 bets, a return of 4.01%.
- Betting on nations at odds of 1.50 or shorter in the 1X2 market at even stakes has returned a profit of 5.46 units from 97 matches, a return of 5.63%.
Underdogs at the World Cup
Let’s begin by taking a quick look at the competitive balance of the World Cup as compared to other tournaments and leagues.
The table below shows the percentage of matches that ended with a given margin in the:
- World Cup from 1998 to 2018
- Euros from 2000 to 2021
- English Premier League the last five seasons from 2017/18 to 2021/22.
Table 1: Percentage of matches finishing with a given goal margin
| Margin | World Cup | Euro | Premier League |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 6 goals | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.5% |
| 5 goals | 1.3% | 1.3% | 2.2% |
| 4 goals | 2.6% | 2.2% | 4.5% |
| 3 goals | 9.5% | 9.7% | 10.9% |
| 2 goals | 18.0% | 19.0% | 22.4% |
| 1 goals | 39.7% | 39.8% | 36.7% |
| 0 goals | 27.8% | 27.9% | 22.8% |
Overall, 32.5% of World Cup matches and 32.2% of European championship matches ended with a margin of at least 2 goals, while the Premier League the last five seasons has seen a share of 40.5% of matches end with margins of 2 goals or greater.
The expectations of betting markets reflect these results.
Table 2: Percentage of matches starting with a given goal handicap
| Handicap | World Cup | Euro | Premier League |
|---|---|---|---|
| +2.5 > | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| +2.25 | 1.6% | 0.0% | 1.4% |
| +2 | 1.9% | 1.0% | 4.2% |
| +1.75 | 4.2% | 1.0% | 3.1% |
| +1.5 | 6.6% | 2.9% | 7.6% |
| +1.25 | 9.5% | 11.4% | 5.5% |
| +1 | 13.0% | 10.5% | 13.5% |
| +0.75 | 13.5% | 18.1% | 12.8% |
| +0.5 | 20.1% | 24.3% | 11.7% |
| +0.25 | 19.8% | 22.9% | 31.4% |
| +0 | 9.5% | 7.6% | 6.4% |
The table above shows the percentage of matches that began with a given handicap in the Asian handicap across the World Cup from 1998 to 2018, the Euros 2000 to 2021 and the Premier League the last five seasons, from 2017/18 to 2021/22.
We see that 14.6% of World Cup matches since 1998 have expected to see a margin of at least 2 goals while for the Euros it has been just 5.4%. In the Premier League, that share has been 18.7% of matches.
So while the World Cup has not been as competitive as the European championship the last two decades, it has certainly been more competitive than the English Premier League the last five seasons.
Betting on Underdogs at the World Cup: Asian handicap market
So let’s take a look at how profitable it has been to back large underdogs at the World Cup since 1998.
I have categorized any team receiving a +1 goal handicap or greater as a large underdog.
Table 3: Performance of underdogs handicap +1 goal or greater at the World Cup by each handicap
| Handicap | Matches | AH W | AH L | Win % | AH W P/L | AH L P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49 | 28 | 21 | 57.1% | +4.92 | -7.84 |
| 1.25 | 36 | 17.5 | 18.5 | 48.6% | -1.87 | +0 |
| 1.5 | 25 | 14 | 11 | 56.0% | +2.35 | -4.22 |
| 1.75 | 16 | 8.75 | 7.25 | 54.7% | +0.55 | -1.84 |
| 2 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 57.1% | +0.57 | -1.27 |
| 2.25 | 6 | 3.25 | 2.75 | 54.2% | +0.1 | -0.43 |
| 2.5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.0% | -1 | +0.84 |
| Total | 140 | 75.5 | 64.5 | 53.9% | +5.62 | -14.76 |
The table above shows that backing underdogs at the World Cup of at least +1 handicap has been profitable since 1998.
If you had backed each such underdog you would have earned a profit of +5.62 units across 140 matches, a return of +4.01%. The win rate for these underdogs was just under 54% in the Asian handicap market.
The table below shows the same results, World Cup by World Cup.
Table 4: Performance of underdogs handicap +1 goal or greater at the World Cup by each tournament
| Year | Matches | AH W | AH L | Win % | AH W P/L | AH L P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 30 | 16.5 | 13.5 | 55.0% | +2.31 | -3.97 |
| 2002 | 20 | 9.75 | 10.25 | 48.8% | -0.98 | -0.08 |
| 2006 | 23 | 8.25 | 14.75 | 35.9% | -7.01 | +5.2 |
| 2010 | 24 | 14.25 | 9.75 | 59.4% | +2.96 | -4.74 |
| 2014 | 22 | 14.25 | 7.75 | 64.8% | +5.14 | -6.92 |
| 2018 | 21 | 12.5 | 8.5 | 59.5% | +3.21 | -4.25 |
| Total | 140 | 75.5 | 64.5 | 53.9% | +5.62 | -14.76 |
We can see that backing underdogs of +1 goal or greater has been profitable in all but two World Cups, 2002 and 2006 with the most profitable World Cup being 2014.
What about nation by nation?
The table below shows the performance of each nation competing at the 2022 World Cup when playing as underdogs of +1 goal or greater, ranked by order of the number of times in which they have started a World Cup match as +1 goal underdogs or greater.
Table 5: Performance of 2022 World Cup nations when underdogs handicap +1 goal or greater at the World Cup
| Nation | Matches | Ah W | Ah L | W P/L | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia | 10 | 4.5 | 5.5 | -1.21 | -12.1% |
| Australia | 7 | 2.75 | 4.25 | -1.84 | -26.3% |
| Tunisia | 7 | 2.5 | 4.5 | -2.16 | -30.9% |
| Costa Rica | 6 | 3.25 | 2.75 | +0.3 | +5.0% |
| Iran | 6 | 4.75 | 1.25 | +2.81 | +46.8% |
| Japan | 5 | 3.5 | 1.5 | +1.82 | +36.4% |
| South Korea | 5 | 3 | 2 | +0.95 | +19.0% |
| Denmark | 4 | 2.5 | 1.5 | +0.96 | +24.0% |
| Ghana | 4 | 1.5 | 2.5 | -1.15 | -28.8% |
| Mexico | 4 | 3 | 1 | +1.93 | +48.3% |
| USA | 4 | 2.75 | 1.25 | +1.28 | +32.0% |
| Croatia | 3 | 1.75 | 1.25 | +0.38 | +12.7% |
| Ecuador | 3 | 0.5 | 2.5 | -2 | -66.7% |
| Morocco | 3 | 2 | 1 | +0.95 | +31.7% |
| Switzerland | 3 | 3 | 0 | +2.82 | +94.0% |
| Cameroon | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -100.0% |
| Serbia | 2 | 0 | 2 | -2 | -100.0% |
| Belgium | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | -100.0% |
| Senegal | 1 | 1 | 0 | +1.04 | +104.0% |
| Uruguay | 1 | 1 | 0 | +0.92 | +92.0% |
| Total | 81 | 43.25 | 37.75 | +2.8 | 3.5% |
We can see that Saudi Arabia, Australia and Tunisia have been a combined 9.75 out of 24 against the handicap in the World Cup since 1998, a win rate of just 40.6% , returning a loss of just under 22% across the 24 units staked.
Iran and Switzerland have been the best performers of these nations with Iran returning a profit of +2.81 at even stakes from 6 matches while Switzerland are a perfect 3-0 when entering a match at +1 underdogs or greater.
Betting Against Underdogs at the World Cup: 1X2 market
So as we have seen it has been profitable to bet on underdogs of at least +1 goal at the World Cup since 1998.
What about betting on these underdogs in the 1X2 market?
Well, here’s where we have, what I will call, a paradox of profitability.
Below is the profitability for betting on nations entering matches at odds of 1.50 or shorter in the 1X2 market, World Cup on World Cup.
Table 6: Performance of favourites when starting at odds of 1.50 or shorter at the World Cup
| Year | Matches | W | D | L | W P/L | D P/L | L P/L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 23 | 18 | 4 | 1 | +0.95 | -3.77 | -16.64 |
| 2002 | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +1.61 | -11 | +5.54 |
| 2006 | 12 | 11 | 1 | 0 | +2.57 | -7.67 | -12 |
| 2010 | 15 | 11 | 3 | 1 | +0.13 | +1.39 | -0.92 |
| 2014 | 16 | 12 | 3 | 1 | -0.1 | +0.35 | -6.93 |
| 2018 | 20 | 15 | 3 | 2 | +0.3 | -5.41 | +5.85 |
| Total | 97 | 76 | 14 | 7 | +5.46 | -26.11 | -25.1 |
We can see that betting on short priced favourites has indeed been profitable in the 1X2 market, returning a profit at even stakes of +5.46 units, a return of +5.6%. Backing such favourites has been profitable at even stakes in all but the 2014 World Cup.
At the same time, backing the opponents would have seen you suffer a loss of -25.1 units, a return of -25.9%.
The table below lists the performance as favourites of 1.50 or shorter for nations competing at the 2022 World Cup, ranked by the number of times in which they have entered a match as such favourites.
Table 7: Performance of 2022 World Cup nations when starting at odds of 1.50 or shorter at the World Cup
| Nation | Matches | W | D | L | W P/L | ROI % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brazil | 19 | 16 | 2 | 1 | +2.15 | +11.3% |
| Argentina | 11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | +1.37 | +12.5% |
| Spain | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | -0.78 | -7.8% |
| Germany | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | -1.67 | -16.7% |
| France | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | -0.36 | -4.5% |
| England | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | +0.77 | +12.8% |
| Belgium | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | +0.28 | +5.6% |
| Portugal | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | +0.24 | +6.0% |
| Netherlands | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +1.34 | +33.5% |
| Uruguay | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -0.31 | -10.3% |
| Serbia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +0.62 | +31.0% |
| Croatia | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | +0.73 | +36.5% |
| Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.49 | +49.0% |
| Cameroon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +0.36 | +36.0% |
| Total | 86 | 68 | 11 | 7 | +5.23 | +6.1% |
Brazil are the kings here. All told, the Brazilians have entered a total of 19 World Cup matches since 1998 as favourites of 1.50 or shorter, winning 16 for a profit at even stakes of +2.15 units, a return of +11.3%.
Argentina have won 9 of their 11 matches as such favourites, returning a profit of +1.37 units.
Meanwhile Germany, Spain and France have each failed to return a profit at even stakes, combining for a loss of -2.81 units across their combined 28 matches.
Conclusion: Backing Underdogs at the 2022 World Cup
So what can we take from this analysis? We can see that while underdogs of +1 goal or greater have covered the handicap, favourites in these matches have been profitable in the 1X2 market.
This means that while short priced favourites win at a rate that outperforms the betting market, they have not won by greater than the expected margin.
Therefore an interesting angle to play would be to back short priced favourites to win but only by a goal margin of exactly one goal.
At time of writing, bookmakers have 19 matches set at a handicap of at least +1 through the group stage with 15 matches currently set with favourites of 1.50 or shorter in the 1X2 market.
Backing large underdogs is the foundation of my approach to betting on any sport. The uglier the dog, the more I like it. While it has been profitable to back short priced favourites at the World Cup in the 1X2 market, I will be rather looking to back underdogs of +1 goal or greater in the Asian handicap market.
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