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football | Thursday, November 24, 2022 5:40 PM (Revised at: Thursday, November 24, 2022 9:28 PM)

What Were the Odds of That?: Round 1, World Cup 2022

What Were the Odds of That?: Round 1, World Cup 2022
Action Plus Sports Images / Alamy Stock Photo

Well that was interesting.

The opening round of the 2022 World Cup has concluded, a round that gave us plenty to think about heading into round two.

In this article:


Two Historic Shock Results

The talking points were clearly Argentina’s loss to Saudi Arabia and Germany’s loss to Japan. Both nations surrendered 1-0 second half leads to lose 2-1.

Argentina began their match with Saudi Arabia at very lean odds, while the Saudi’s began at a best price of 31.0 to win the match. The result will go down (at time of writing) as the biggest upset in World Cup history, leap frogging over South Korea’s victory over Germany in 2018, to claim the number one spot on the charts.

Speaking of the Germans.

Leading 1-0 midway through the second half, the Germans would surrender two goals to Japan within eight minutes, dropping a game the nation could ill afford to lose.

The randomness of tournament football was on full display. Germany lost to Japan 1-2, despite an xG of 3.2 goals to Japan’s 1.4 while Argentina lost Saudi Arabia 2-1, despite an xG of 2.2 goals to 0.1.

On the other hand, England won 6-2 over Iran, despite an xG of 2.1 to 1.4.

Potential shock results in the next round of group play? No dramatic mismatches in the next round. As it stands, Costa Rica will enter as the biggest underdogs of round two when they meet Japan on November 27th, currently at odds of 7.90, while Switzerland will face Brazil on November 28th, currently at odds of 7.60.

Favourites Assert Themselves

Elsewhere, the opening round saw a number of favourites dominate early in the tournament. Spain, France and England would defeat their opening round opponents by a combined score of 17-3, easily covering a combined handicap of -5.5 goals, and all but set up their qualification for the next round.

Each will face sterner tests in round two with England facing the USA, at odds 1.60,  France will meet Denmark at odds 1.80 while Spain will meet a desperate Germany, at odds 2.40.

Not Enough Goals?

There was plenty of hand wringing with the run of 0-0 results during the opening round. Four of 16 matches ended in goalless draws. Scoreless matches don’t make for the best viewing experience. But it’s football. It’s a game designed to inhibit scoring. Runs of scoreless matches will happen.

So while a quarter of matches in the opening round went without a goal, the average number of goals for the round was 2.56 goals. This was greater than the average number of goals scored in group stage matches 1998 to 2018, which was 2.54 goals.


World Cup Winner Odds Movement

Brazil shorten into 3.60 favourites having started the tournament at 4.50 following their 2-0 victory over Serbia to close out the opening round last night.

Argentina drift from 7.00 to 10.00 following their shock loss to Saudi Arabia while Germany are now out from 13.00 at kickoff to 31.00.

Spain close from at starting price of 11.00 to 8.00 after their 7-0 victory over Costa Rica, England have been cut in from 11.50 as the tournament began to 8.50 heading into the second round of the group stage while France are in from 10.0 to 8.50 after their 4-1 victory over Australia.

NATION Starting Odds Current Odds
Brazil 4.50 3.60
Spain 11.00 8.00
England 11.50 8.00
France 10.00 8.50
Argentina 7.00 10.50
Portugal 17.00 14.00
Netherlands 15.00 15.00
Belgium 21.00 26.00
Germany 13.00 31.00
Denmark 31.00 51.00
Uruguay 42.00 67.00
Croatia 67.00 101.00
Japan 501.00 121.00
Switzerland 126.00 121.00
Serbia 121.00 141.00
Ecuador 301.00 210.00
Mexico 201.00 251.00
Poland 280.00 276.00
Morocco 351.00 280.00
Senegal 161.00 280.00
USA 226.00 280.00
Wales 276.00 326.00
Canada 501.00 476.00
South Korea 551.00 476.00
Saudi Arabia 1001.00 751.00
Tunisia 1001.00 751.00
Australia 501.00 1001.00
Ghana 751.00 1001.00
Iran 501.00 1001.00
Cameroon 651.00 1501.00
Costa Rica 1001.00 2001.00
Qatar 501.00 2001.00

Group & Qualification Odds Movement

So which teams have firmed in group betting? Who finds their World Cup campaigns in jeopardy? Let’s take a look at the shape of group and qualification betting following the opening round of the group stage.

All odds are best odds available as at 10pm, 24th November 2022. Odds may now differ.

Group A

The Netherlands firmed in group winner betting following their victory over Senegal. Having begun the tournament at odds 1.53 to top the group, the Dutch are now 1.28. Ecuador firm to odds of 5.0 from a starting price of 7.0 following their win over Qatar, while both Senegal and Qatar have their work ahead of them.

Win Group A Starting Odds Current Odds
Netherlands 1.53 1.27
Senegal 6.50 34.00
Ecuador 7.00 5.00
Qatar 19.50 301.00

Netherlands all but booked their ticket to the next round and will now face Ecuador, a victory would make it a certainty. Senegal needs a victory when they face Qatar. Any short of a win will see them well and truly backed into a corner.

Qualify Group A Starting Odds Current Odds
Netherlands 1.13 1.03
Senegal 2.00 3.00
Ecuador 2.20 1.44
Qatar 4.50 41.00

Group B

England’s 6-2 win over Iran saw them shorten from 1.44 to 1.20 to win the group. A victory over the USA in the second round will see England claim the group while Wales and Iran will meet to stay relevant in the group winner market.

Win Group B Starting Odds Current Odds
England 1.44 1.20
USA 6.50 10.00
Wales 7.00 12.00
Iran 17.00 126.00

England were 1.12 to qualify before their route of Iran and are now at 1.03 to move onto the knockout stage. USA and Wales draw did little to clarify who will join them from the group, with the USA slightly favoured at odds 2.10 to Wales at 2.38.

Qualify Group B Starting Odds Current Odds
England 1.12 1.03
USA 2.10 2.10
Wales 2.38 2.38
Iran 4.33 7.00

Group C

Saudi Arabia’s shock win over Argentina totally flipped the group on its head. Argentina are still favoured to top the group, but now at odds 2.50 having started at 1.40. Among the three other members of group C, Mexico and Saudi Arabia are favoured slightly over Poland.

Win Group C Starting Odds Current Odds
Argentina 1.40 2.50
Mexico 6.75 4.50
Poland 7.00 5.30
Saudi Arabia 34.00 4.50

Argentina’s qualification for the knockout stage seemed all but guaranteed at the start of the tournament at odds 1.09. Following their loss, they are now precariously priced at odds of 1.50. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia who began at odds of 8.00, are now at even money.

Qualify Group C Starting Odds Current Odds
Argentina 1.09 1.50
Mexico 1.91 2.25
Poland 2.00 2.38
Saudi Arabia 8.00 2.00

Group D

France asserted themselves atop group D with their 4-1 win over Australia, bringing them to odds 1.22, coupled with Denmark’s draw with Tunisia. The two nations will now meet in the second round.

Win Group D Starting Odds Current Odds
France 1.58 1.22
Denmark 3.25 5.50
Tunisia 21.00 26.00
Australia 26.00 151.00

France are virtually guaranteed a place in the knockout stage while Denmark drift from 1.36 to 1.50 following their draw to Tunisia, who now face Australia, needing a win to find themselves in serious qualification calculations

Qualify Group D Starting Odds Current Odds
France 1.10 1.03
Denmark 1.36 1.50
Tunisia 5.50 4.33
Australia 6.00 8.50

Group E

Spain took care of business in their opening match against Costa Rica, shortening into odds of 1.33 to win the group. Germany drift wide from odds 2.20 to start the tournament to odds 17.0 following their loss to Japan.

Win Group E Starting Odds Current Odds
Spain 2.02 1.33
Germany 2.20 17.00
Japan 15.00 6.00
Costa Rica 70.00 301.00

Germany cannot any further slip ups if they hope to qualify for the knockout stage. Having started the tournament at odds 1.17, they are now at 3.0, while Japan have been clipped in from 4.33 to 1.44 following their surprise win over the Germans.

Qualify Group E Starting Odds Current Odds
Spain 1.13 1.06
Germany 1.17 3.00
Japan 4.33 1.44
Costa Rica 15.00 41.00

Group F

Belgium were far from impressive in their opening 1-0 win over Canada. The result sees them shortened into 1.62 to win the group.

Win Group F Starting Odds Current Odds
Belgium 1.85 1.62
Croatia 3.25 4.40
Morocco 11.00 10.00
Canada 14.50 17.50

Belgium are at short odds to win through to the knockout stage at odds 1.14, while Croatia will need to get a win when they face Canada or else risk heading home early.

Qualify Group F Starting Odds Current Odds
Belgium 1.20 1.14
Croatia 1.53 1.91
Morocco 3.20 2.88
Canada 4.25 4.00

Group G

winner

Win Group G Starting Odds Current Odds
Brazil 1.40 1.14
Serbia 7.50 31.00
Switzerland 7.60 9.00
Cameroon 30.00 101.00

Brazil look forward to the second round following their win over Serbia will Switzerland come into odds of 1.53 to join them following their win over Cameroon. Serbia and Switzerland meet in the second round on Monday in what will  likely decide who will finish second in the group.

Qualify Group G Starting Odds Current Odds
Brazil 1.10 1.02
Serbia 2.10 2.40
Switzerland 2.25 1.53
Cameroon 5.00 15.00

Group H

Portugal’s win over Ghana sees them clipped in from 1.74 to 1.36 to win the group while Uruguay drift to 5.50 following their far from inspiring draw with South Korea.

Win Group H Starting Odds Current Odds
Portugal 1.74 1.36
Uruguay 3.00 5.50
South Korea 13.00 12.00
Ghana 17.00 36.00

Portugal look near certain to find themselves in the knockout stage while Uruguay find themselves needing a result when they come up against the group leaders in the second round of the group stage.

Qualify Group H Starting Odds Current Odds
Portugal 1.20 1.10
Uruguay 1.45 1.66
South Korea 3.75 3.25
Ghana 4.00 7.00

World Cup 2022, Round 1 Betting Results

Ecuador 2, Qatar 0

Group A, November 20th

Results for Qatar vs Ecuador, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Ecuador, 2.20
  • Asian handicap: Ecuador -0.25, 1.89
  • Draw No Bet: Ecuador, 1.50
  • Over Under: 2 goals, Push
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.70
  • Correct Score: 2-0, 10.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Ecuador/Ecuador 4.00

England 6, Iran 2

Group B, November 21st

Results for England vs Iran, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: England, 1.36
  • Asian handicap: England -1.25, 1.95
  • Draw No Bet: England, 1.11
  • Over Under: Over 2.25, 2.02
  • Both teams to score: Yes, 2.75
  • Correct Score: 6-2, 451.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: England/England 2.10

Netherlands 2, Senegal 0

Group A, November 21st

Results for Senegal vs Netherlands, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Netherlands 1.66
  • Asian handicap: Netherlands -0.75, 1.92
  • Draw No Bet: Netherlands, 1.22
  • Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, Half win, 1.85
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.61
  • Correct Score: 2-0, 7.50
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Netherlands, 4.33

USA 1, Wales 1

Group B, November 21st

Results for USA vs Wales, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Draw, 3.10
  • Asian handicap: Wales +0.25, Half win, 1.80
  • Draw No Bet: Push
  • Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, Half win, 1.83
  • Both teams to score: Yes, 1.95
  • Correct Score: 1-1, 6.50
  • Halftime/Fulltime: USA/Draw, 15.0

Saudi Arabia 2, Argentina 1

Group C, November 22nd

Results for Argentina vs Saudi Arabia, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Saudi Arabia, 23.0
  • Asian handicap: Saudi Arabia +2.25, 1.95
  • Draw No Bet: Saudi Arabia, 17.0
  • Over Under: 3 goals, Push
  • Both teams to score: Yes, 3.0
  • Correct Score: 2-1, 51.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Argentina/Saudi Arabia, 67.0

Denmark 0, Tunisia 0

Group D, November 22nd

Results for Denmark vs Tunisia, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Draw, 4.0
  • Asian handicap: Tunisia +1, 1.81
  • Draw No Bet: Push
  • Over Under: Under 2.25, 1.96
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.61
  • Correct Score: 0-0, 8.50
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Draw 5.0

Poland 0, Mexico 0

Group C, November 22nd

Results for Poland vs Mexico, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Draw, 3.10
  • Asian handicap: Poland +0.25, Half win, 1.84
  • Draw No Bet: Push
  • Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, 1.84
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.80
  • Correct Score: 0-0, 7.50
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Draw, 4.50

France 4, Australia 1

Group D, November 22nd

Results for France vs Australia, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: France, 1.18
  • Asian handicap: France -2, 1.95
  • Draw No Bet: France, 1.05
  • Over Under: Over 3 goals, 2.02
  • Both teams to score: Yes, 2.50
  • Correct Score: 4-1, 21.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: France/France, 1.66

Croatia 0, Morocco 0

Group F, November 23rd

Results for Croatia vs Morocco, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Draw, 3.25
  • Asian handicap: Morocco +0.5, 2.15
  • Draw No Bet: Push
  • Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, 1.90
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.80
  • Correct Score: 0-0, 8.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Draw, 4.75

Japan 2, Germany 1

Group E, November 23rd

Results for team vs team, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Japan, 7.50
  • Asian handicap: Japan +1.25, 2.03
  • Draw No Bet: Japan, 5.50
  • Over Under: 3 goals, Push
  • Both teams to score: Yes, 1.80
  • Correct Score: 2-1, 23.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Germany/Japan, 41.0

Spain 7, Costa Rica 0

Group E, November 23rd

Results for Spain vs Costa Rica, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Spain, 1.12
  • Asian handicap: Spain -2.25, 1.97
  • Draw No Bet: Spain, 1.04
  • Over Under: Over 3.25 goals, 2.05
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.44
  • Correct Score: 7-0, 51.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Spain/Spain, 1.53

Belgium 1, Canada 0

Group F, November 23rd

Results for Belgium vs Canada, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Belgium, 1.60
  • Asian handicap: +/- 1, Push
  • Draw No Bet: Belgium, 1.20
  • Over Under: Under 2.75, 1.85
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.95
  • Correct Score: 1-0, 8.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Belgium/Belgium, 2.25

Switzerland 1, Cameroon 0

Group G, November 24th

Results for Switzerland vs Cameroon, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Switzerland, 1.72
  • Asian handicap: Switzerland -0.75, Half win, 1.99
  • Draw No Bet: Switzerland, 1.25
  • Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, 1.85
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.66
  • Correct Score: 1-0, 6.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Switzerland, 4.33

Uruguay 0, South Korea 0

Group H, November 24th

Results for Uruguay vs South Korea, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Draw, 3.50
  • Asian handicap: South Korea +0.75, 1.89
  • Draw No Bet: Push
  • Over Under: Under 2.25 goals, 1.90
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.70
  • Correct Score: 0-0, 8.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Draw, 4.75

Portugal 3, Ghana 2

Group H, November 24th

Results for Portugal vs Ghana, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Portugal, 1.28
  • Asian handicap: Ghana +1.5, 2.04
  • Draw No Bet: Portugal, 1.08
  • Over Under: Over 2.75 goals, 1.93
  • Both teams to score: Yes, 1.61
  • Correct Score: 3-2, 34.0
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Portugal, 3.75

Brazil 2, Serbia 0

Group G, November 24th

Results for Brazil vs Serbia, 2022 World Cup. Odds are closing odds at bet365:

  • 1X2 Result: Brazil, 1.44
  • Asian handicap: Brazil -1.25, 2.05
  • Draw No Bet: Brazil, 1.14
  • Over Under: Under 2.75 goals, 1.87
  • Both teams to score: No, 1.80
  • Correct Score: 2-0, 7.50
  • Halftime/Fulltime: Draw/Brazil, 4.33

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