Football | Thursday, November 24, 2022 5:40 PM (Revised at: Thursday, November 24, 2022 9:28 PM)

What Were the Odds of That?: Round 1, World Cup 2022

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bettingexpert Educational and Data Content Editor

Well that was interesting.

The opening round of the 2022 World Cup has concluded, a round that gave us plenty to think about heading into round two.

In this article:

Two Historic Shock Results

The talking points were clearly Argentina’s loss to Saudi Arabia and Germany’s loss to Japan. Both nations surrendered 1-0 second half leads to lose 2-1.

Argentina began their match with Saudi Arabia at very lean odds, while the Saudi’s began at a best price of 31.0 to win the match. The result will go down (at time of writing) as the biggest upset in World Cup history, leap frogging over South Korea’s victory over Germany in 2018, to claim the number one spot on the charts.

Speaking of the Germans.

Leading 1-0 midway through the second half, the Germans would surrender two goals to Japan within eight minutes, dropping a game the nation could ill afford to lose.

The randomness of tournament football was on full display. Germany lost to Japan 1-2, despite an xG of 3.2 goals to Japan’s 1.4 while Argentina lost Saudi Arabia 2-1, despite an xG of 2.2 goals to 0.1.

On the other hand, England won 6-2 over Iran, despite an xG of 2.1 to 1.4.

Potential shock results in the next round of group play? No dramatic mismatches in the next round. As it stands, Costa Rica will enter as the biggest underdogs of round two when they meet Japan on November 27th, currently at odds of 7.90, while Switzerland will face Brazil on November 28th, currently at odds of 7.60.

Favourites Assert Themselves

Elsewhere, the opening round saw a number of favourites dominate early in the tournament. Spain, France and England would defeat their opening round opponents by a combined score of 17-3, easily covering a combined handicap of -5.5 goals, and all but set up their qualification for the next round.

Each will face sterner tests in round two with England facing the USA, at odds 1.60, France will meet Denmark at odds 1.80 while Spain will meet a desperate Germany, at odds 2.40.

Not Enough Goals?

There was plenty of hand wringing with the run of 0-0 results during the opening round. Four of 16 matches ended in goalless draws. Scoreless matches don’t make for the best viewing experience. But it’s football. It’s a game designed to inhibit scoring. Runs of scoreless matches will happen.

So while a quarter of matches in the opening round went without a goal, the average number of goals for the round was 2.56 goals. This was greater than the average number of goals scored in group stage matches 1998 to 2018, which was 2.54 goals.

World Cup Winner Odds Movement

Brazil shorten into 3.60 favourites having started the tournament at 4.50 following their 2-0 victory over Serbia to close out the opening round last night.

Argentina drift from 7.00 to 10.00 following their shock loss to Saudi Arabia while Germany are now out from 13.00 at kickoff to 31.00.

Spain close from at starting price of 11.00 to 8.00 after their 7-0 victory over Costa Rica, England have been cut in from 11.50 as the tournament began to 8.50 heading into the second round of the group stage while France are in from 10.0 to 8.50 after their 4-1 victory over Australia.

NATION	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	4.50	3.60
Spain	11.00	8.00
England	11.50	8.00
France	10.00	8.50
Argentina	7.00	10.50
Portugal	17.00	14.00
Netherlands	15.00	15.00
Belgium	21.00	26.00
Germany	13.00	31.00
Denmark	31.00	51.00
Uruguay	42.00	67.00
Croatia	67.00	101.00
Japan	501.00	121.00
Switzerland	126.00	121.00
Serbia	121.00	141.00
Ecuador	301.00	210.00
Mexico	201.00	251.00
Poland	280.00	276.00
Morocco	351.00	280.00
Senegal	161.00	280.00
USA	226.00	280.00
Wales	276.00	326.00
Canada	501.00	476.00
South Korea	551.00	476.00
Saudi Arabia	1001.00	751.00
Tunisia	1001.00	751.00
Australia	501.00	1001.00
Ghana	751.00	1001.00
Iran	501.00	1001.00
Cameroon	651.00	1501.00
Costa Rica	1001.00	2001.00
Qatar	501.00	2001.00

Group & Qualification Odds Movement

So which teams have firmed in group betting? Who finds their World Cup campaigns in jeopardy? Let’s take a look at the shape of group and qualification betting following the opening round of the group stage.

All odds are best odds available as at 10pm, 24th November 2022. Odds may now differ.

Group A

The Netherlands firmed in group winner betting following their victory over Senegal. Having begun the tournament at odds 1.53 to top the group, the Dutch are now 1.28. Ecuador firm to odds of 5.0 from a starting price of 7.0 following their win over Qatar, while both Senegal and Qatar have their work ahead of them.

Win Group A	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Netherlands	1.53	1.27
Senegal	6.50	34.00
Ecuador	7.00	5.00
Qatar	19.50	301.00

Netherlands all but booked their ticket to the next round and will now face Ecuador, a victory would make it a certainty. Senegal needs a victory when they face Qatar. Any short of a win will see them well and truly backed into a corner.

Qualify Group A	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Netherlands	1.13	1.03
Senegal	2.00	3.00
Ecuador	2.20	1.44
Qatar	4.50	41.00

Group B

England’s 6-2 win over Iran saw them shorten from 1.44 to 1.20 to win the group. A victory over the USA in the second round will see England claim the group while Wales and Iran will meet to stay relevant in the group winner market.

Win Group B	Starting Odds	Current Odds
England	1.44	1.20
USA	6.50	10.00
Wales	7.00	12.00
Iran	17.00	126.00

England were 1.12 to qualify before their route of Iran and are now at 1.03 to move onto the knockout stage. USA and Wales draw did little to clarify who will join them from the group, with the USA slightly favoured at odds 2.10 to Wales at 2.38.

Qualify Group B	Starting Odds	Current Odds
England	1.12	1.03
USA	2.10	2.10
Wales	2.38	2.38
Iran	4.33	7.00

Group C

Saudi Arabia’s shock win over Argentina totally flipped the group on its head. Argentina are still favoured to top the group, but now at odds 2.50 having started at 1.40. Among the three other members of group C, Mexico and Saudi Arabia are favoured slightly over Poland.

Win Group C	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Argentina	1.40	2.50
Mexico	6.75	4.50
Poland	7.00	5.30
Saudi Arabia	34.00	4.50

Argentina’s qualification for the knockout stage seemed all but guaranteed at the start of the tournament at odds 1.09. Following their loss, they are now precariously priced at odds of 1.50. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia who began at odds of 8.00, are now at even money.

Qualify Group C	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Argentina	1.09	1.50
Mexico	1.91	2.25
Poland	2.00	2.38
Saudi Arabia	8.00	2.00

Group D

France asserted themselves atop group D with their 4-1 win over Australia, bringing them to odds 1.22, coupled with Denmark’s draw with Tunisia. The two nations will now meet in the second round.

Win Group D	Starting Odds	Current Odds
France	1.58	1.22
Denmark	3.25	5.50
Tunisia	21.00	26.00
Australia	26.00	151.00

France are virtually guaranteed a place in the knockout stage while Denmark drift from 1.36 to 1.50 following their draw to Tunisia, who now face Australia, needing a win to find themselves in serious qualification calculations

Qualify Group D	Starting Odds	Current Odds
France	1.10	1.03
Denmark	1.36	1.50
Tunisia	5.50	4.33
Australia	6.00	8.50

Group E

Spain took care of business in their opening match against Costa Rica, shortening into odds of 1.33 to win the group. Germany drift wide from odds 2.20 to start the tournament to odds 17.0 following their loss to Japan.

Win Group E	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Spain	2.02	1.33
Germany	2.20	17.00
Japan	15.00	6.00
Costa Rica	70.00	301.00

Germany cannot any further slip ups if they hope to qualify for the knockout stage. Having started the tournament at odds 1.17, they are now at 3.0, while Japan have been clipped in from 4.33 to 1.44 following their surprise win over the Germans.

Qualify Group E	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Spain	1.13	1.06
Germany	1.17	3.00
Japan	4.33	1.44
Costa Rica	15.00	41.00

Group F

Belgium were far from impressive in their opening 1-0 win over Canada. The result sees them shortened into 1.62 to win the group.

Win Group F	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Belgium	1.85	1.62
Croatia	3.25	4.40
Morocco	11.00	10.00
Canada	14.50	17.50

Belgium are at short odds to win through to the knockout stage at odds 1.14, while Croatia will need to get a win when they face Canada or else risk heading home early.

Qualify Group F	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Belgium	1.20	1.14
Croatia	1.53	1.91
Morocco	3.20	2.88
Canada	4.25	4.00

Group G

winner

Win Group G	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	1.40	1.14
Serbia	7.50	31.00
Switzerland	7.60	9.00
Cameroon	30.00	101.00

Brazil look forward to the second round following their win over Serbia will Switzerland come into odds of 1.53 to join them following their win over Cameroon. Serbia and Switzerland meet in the second round on Monday in what will likely decide who will finish second in the group.

Qualify Group G	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Brazil	1.10	1.02
Serbia	2.10	2.40
Switzerland	2.25	1.53
Cameroon	5.00	15.00

Group H

Portugal’s win over Ghana sees them clipped in from 1.74 to 1.36 to win the group while Uruguay drift to 5.50 following their far from inspiring draw with South Korea.

Win Group H	Starting Odds	Current Odds
Portugal	1.74	1.36
Uruguay	3.00	5.50
South Korea	13.00	12.00
Ghana	17.00	36.00

Portugal look near certain to find themselves in the knockout stage while Uruguay find themselves needing a result when they come up against the group leaders in the second round of the group stage.