UFC 272 Best Bets: Saturday March 5th

I’ve got 3 UFC 272 Best Bets for this weekend, and with Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal headlining the event, you know it’s going to be a cracker. We have 2 more nice underdogs in Jamie Mullarkey and Tim Elliot in the Prelim and Early-Prelim cards respectively. Both have more than a realistic shot to win and provide excellent value this weekend.

UFC 272 Best Bets:

• Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal: Fight to Go the Distance – No at 2.10 odds
• Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey – Mullarkey to Win at 2.37
• Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov – Tim Elliot to Win at 3.26 odds

Odds as at 4 pm March 3rd 2022. Odds may now differ.

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal Best Bet

The former UFC Welterweight division champion Colby Covington makes his return to the octagon after failing to win back the title against Kamaru Usman in November last year. He is coming into this fight as the heavy favourite to win at 1.30 odds, and with 82% of bettors picking him, it’s simply not worth it. Although Covington is the more complete fighter in this one, with exceptional wrestling, striking and durability, I don’t think that trying to pick a winner is the smart bet for this main event. We all know that Covington is a very dangerous fighter who can finish the fight on the feet or on the ground, and he is more than capable of putting away a fighter like Masvidal. That said, he himself has been TKO-ed by Usman in their first encounter, so it’s not out of the question that Masvidal can land a fight-ending punch… or knee.

But what do Jorge Masvidal and Colby Covington have in common? They both lost title fights to Usman by TKO. In fact, Masvidal has suffered 2 career losses by TKO and 2 more by submission. Both fighters can be put away, and it’s more than likely that the fight will finish before the end of the 5th round. Masvidal also has a career 16 TKO victories under his belt and has put away big names like Darren Till, Nate Diaz (doctor’s stoppage), and Donald Cerrone. He is also the proud owner of one of the most spectacular KO knockouts in MMA history, with his flying knee against Ben Askren after just 3 seconds. I don’t expect these two fighters to be conservative, especially considering their past relationship as roommates and training partners. A lot of big words have been said leading up to the fight, and considering the skills of both men and the fact that it’s a 5-rounder, chances are that it’s going to finish before the final bell.

• Selection: Fight to Go the Distance: No
• Best Odds: 2.10 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 7/10

More  Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal tips

Jalin Turner vs Jamie Mullarkey Best Bet

Jalin Turner is just 26 years old and already has 6 UFC fights under his belt and is coming off a nice submission against another young prospect Uros Medic. Turner is a very explosive fighter who has seen a lot of success in the early rounds of fights, especially against fighters with a similar fighting style. He has a career 8 KO/TKO and 3 submission victories, but also 3 KO/TKO losses already. He has also lost both of his fights against slightly bigger names like Vicente Luque and Matt Frevola by KO and unanimous decision respectively. In fact, all 3 of his career fights that have gone to the 3rd round have been losses. I don’t believe that Turner will be able to finish the fight early on, and the longer the fight goes on, the better chance Mullarkey will have to win.

Jamie Mullarkey has also had a very interesting career at the age of 27, having already faced the likes of Alexander Volkanovski and Brad Riddell – and lost both bouts. But, he has changed his fighting style significantly in recent years and has looked like a completely different fighter in his last 2 fights. Since he started training with Volkanovski, his timing has become much more precise, and he has started to implement a lot more body shots to set up head strikes. This is why he was able to get TKO victories in both of his last 2 fights, and the fact that Turner is a very tall fighter at 191 centimetres will allow Mullarkey to land those body shots even easier than against Devonte Smith. Mullarkey is a durable fighter with excellent cardio and solid wrestling, and if he can just survive Turner’s onslaught in the first round, I trust him to get the job done.

• Selection: Jamie Mullarkey to Win
• Best Odds: 2.37 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 6/10

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Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov Best Bet

At 35 years of age and 30 MMA fights under his belt, Tim Elliot is a veteran of the game. He hasn’t had the best record in recent years, but a lot of his losses have been against truly impressive competition like Demetrious Johnson, Deiveson Figueiredo, and Askar Askarov. Tim Elliot is a well-balanced fighter with solid striking with good volume, very good grappling and a durable chin. In fact, his only TKO loss came very early on in his career and it happened way back in 2009. Tim Elliot is one of those reliable fighters from whom you know exactly what to expect, and I don’t think he should be such a heavy underdog at 3.26 odds. His opponent has yet to prove himself in the UFC, and at those odds, Tim Elliot provides some nice betting value.

Meanwhile, Tagir Ulanbekov is 30 years old but only has 2 UFC fights under his belt. He is coming off an unimpressive split decision victory over Alan Nascimento. Ulanbekov is a grappling-heavy fighter who uses his background in combat sambo to get a lot of takedowns, but Elliot’s takedown defence has gotten much better over the years, and his striking is at a higher level. Ulanbekov, of course, has Khabib Nurmagomedov in his corner, but his wrestling isn’t quite as good as one would expect from a fighter in that team, which we have witnessed in his most recent fight. Although Ulanbekov is an interesting prospect, I don’t believe he should be such a large favourite, and I trust the veteran Tim Elliot to pull off the upset.

• Selection: Tim Elliot to Win
• Best Odds: 3.26 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 5/10

More Tim Elliot vs Tagir Ulanbekov tips

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