UFC 273 Best Bets: Volkanovski vs Korean Zombie, Sterling vs Yan, Burns vs Chimaev

UFC 273 is finally here, and I’m coming out with my 3 Best Bets for the most interesting fights of the event. 2 We have 2 title fights in this event, with Volkanovski defending the Featherweight crown against Chan Sung Jung, and Aljamain Sterling making his first Bantamweight title defence after winning it in 2021.

UFC 273 Best Bets:

• Alexander Volkanovski vs Chan Sung Jung: Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission at 3.00
• Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan – Yan by Decision or Technical Decision at 2.20 
• Gilbert Burns vs Khamzat Chimaev – Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission at 1.61

Odds as at 10 am April 5th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Alexander Volkanovski vs Chan Sung Jung Best Bet

The UFC Featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski makes his return to the octagon attempting to make his 3rd straight title defence after besting Brian Ortega at UFC 266. He is now on a 10-fight winning streak in the UFC, and it doesn’t look like he’s ready to stop any time soon. This is the first time he will be facing the Korean Zombie, but he has been in excellent form and his exceptional performance against the dangerous Brian Ortega has me convinced that he can get the job done within 5 rounds.

Volk is the shorter fighter in this one, but he has amazingly long arms for his height and is only giving up 3 centimetres in reach. But Volkanovski is also very explosive, and durable and his striking is one of the best in the game. It’s almost impossible to knock him out or submit him, and although he isn’t exactly known for putting people away, he does have 11 career KO/TKO wins as well as 3 subs. I expect Volklanovski to use his striking volume, with 6.42 strikes landed per minute to pressure his opponent, and eventually finish the fight, most likely in the 4th round.

But the Korean Zombie is also a very dangerous opponent, with notable wins over Dan Ige, Franke Edgar, and Dustin Poirier. His form hasn’t been the best recently, losing his fight against Brian Ortega, but he is coming off a decision victory over Dan Ige.  Jung already made a run at the Featherweight title in 2013, but lost to Jose also by TKO in the 4th round.

Jung is known in the UFC as a very durable fighter with exceptional cardio, but so is his opponent. His biggest strength is his grappling, earning 8 career submissions, and his striking is also very good. But how does he compare to the champ? Jung has suffered 3 career KO/TKO losses, whilst landing 4.07 strikes per minute and absorbing 3.87. The Korean Zombie is without a doubt an extremely skilled fighter, but I don’t see him taking down Volkanovski here, especially given the injury issues he has had recently. He is a huge underdog at 6.50 odds to win, but I’m expecting Volk to finish the fight early due to his overwhelming striking volume and stamina.

• Selection: Volkanovski by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission
• Best Odds: 2.87 (Bet365)
• Stakes 5/10

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Aljamain Sterling vs Petr Yan Best Bet

Finally, the rematch we’ve been waiting for since March 2021. Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling. The former Bantamweight champion Petr Yan lost his title last year due to an illegal knee in the final seconds of the fight. Fans claim the fight was a landslide win for Yan beforehand, but it was closer than many would like to admit. I still think that the Russian would have gotten the decision victory in the end, but here we are, ready to finally settle the dispute.

Yan is definitely the better fighter in this one, but at 1.22 odds to win, there’s really no use backing him in the 1×2 market, so we’ll have to be more specific. Yan is the type of fighter who likes to spend the first 2 rounds starting slowly and studying his opponents. It’s a well-established tactic and I’m expecting more of the same in this one. But once he gets going at full speed, he will establish dominance in the last 3 rounds using his 5.98 strikes landed per minute, as well as elite grappling. He is coming off a unanimous decision victory against the Sandman Cory Sandhagen where he did the exact same thing, and I expect another similar result.

But Aljamain Sterling is a dangerous fighter in his own right, and at 4.50 odds, as well as just 19% of bettors backing him, I’m not going to tell you that there is no value here. He has won 6 fights in a row, beating Cory Sandhagen, Pedro Munhoz and Jimmie Rivera in the process. With a background in wrestling, a black belt in BJJ, and respectable striking, Sterling is by means a pushover in the Bantamweight division.

That said, I don’t like what I’ve seen from him in his last bout against Yan, and he will likely try to lay off the gas pedal in this fight, attempting to save stamina for the later rounds. His striking, however, is underwhelming compared to Yan’s, with just 2 career KO/TKO victories and 4.84 strikes landed per minute. Not great, not terrible. We have already seen that his wrestling is not of much use against the Russian, and I don’t exactly see him getting a submission against a fighter who has never been submitted. He hasn’t fought in over a year and has had surgery to repair a nerve in his neck, whilst Yan remained active. I can’t help but lean toward Petr Yan in this one, but I’m going with a unanimous decision victory at low stakes.

• Selection: Yan by Decision or Technical Decision
• Best Odds: 2.20 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 4/10

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Gilbert Burns vs Khamzat Chimaev Best Bet

About a year ago, Gilbert Burns got a title shot against Kamaru Usman after going on an impressive 5-fight winning streak. He beat, Tyron Woodley, Demian Maia, and Gunnar Nelson during this stretch, but ultimately lost the title bout via TKO in the third round. He is now the 2nd-ranked contender for the title, right after Colby Covington, and will be facing the 11th-ranked phenom in Khamzat Chimaev. This will be his first appearance in the octagon since defeating Stephen Thompson via decision in July 2021.

Burns made his way to MMA through BJJ, competing and winning multiple gold medals in international competitions. His main weapon in the early stages of his career was his grappling, but he has since moved on largely to striking, earning himself 6 KO/TKO victories so far. But despite his knockout power, his striking defence isn’t exactly elite, which we saw against Usman, and he often finds himself needlessly gassing out. Despite having an impressive grappling background, I don’t expect him to be able to finish his opponent in this one, as Borz is also a very experienced wrestler.

At 27 years of age and just 4 UFC fights under his belt Khamzat Chimaev has already made a reputation for himself in the welterweight division. He fought 3 times in 2020, but only made 1 appearance in the Octagon last year due to health reasons, and quickly submitted Li Jingliang in the first round. But exactly how good is Chimaev and is the hype behind this fighter worth him being offered at 1.20 odds? Definitely, yes.

Khamzat Chimaev has a perfect MMA frame at 1.88 meters with a 190-centimetre reach, and his seemingly endless gas tank already makes him a very dangerous opponent in the Welterweight division. He has demonstrated excellent striking skills, along with elite wrestling and fight IQ. Chimaev has absorbed just 1 strike since joining the UFC, whilst landing 6.68 per minute. He has yet to be knocked out in his MMA career, and as long as he avoids getting into hook exchanges with Burns, it shouldn’t happen in this fight either. Khamzat has finished all of his fights either via KO/TKO or submission and has yet to see a decision, so I’m backing another early finish for this fight.

• Selection: Chimaev by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission
• Best Odds: 1.61
• Stakes: 8/10

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