UFC 274 Best Bets: Oliveira vs Gaethje, Namajunas vs Esparza, Chandler vs Ferguson

UFC 274 brings us 2 title fights and more than enough big names on the card. Oliveira, Gaethje, Namajunas, Esparza, Cerrone, Ferguson, Chandler, you name it. We are 9.89% in profit after UFC 273, and I’m coming in with 3 more selections for the most important fights of the card. Take a look at my picks and analysis in the article below.

UFC 274 Best Bets:

• Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje: Oliveira to Win 
• Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza: Namajunas by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission 
• Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson: Fight to go the Distance

Odds as at 4 pm April 5th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje Best Bet

The UFC Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira is looking to make his second title defence in a row, after taking down Dustin Poirier just a few months ago. He is currently on a 10 fight winning streak during which he took down some serious competition like Michael Chandler, Tony Ferguson, Kevin Lee, Clay Guida and others. Oliveira possesses a deadly combination of solid striking, elite Jiu-Jitsu and incredible durability, which is largely why he is available at 1.61 odds to win. With 20 career submission wins and 9 KO/TKOs, he is always a threat to finish the fight early, and in a 5-round fight, he will have more than enough opportunities.

Justin Gaethje is the hardest-hitting Lightweight in the UFC, and he has finally earned another shot at the title after losing to Khabib back in October 2020. Gaethje has won 4 of his last 5 fights and is coming off a decision victory over Michael Chandler, after a brutal 3-round brawl. This time around, he will be facing an even more difficult opponent, and I’m not convinced he can come out on top. This is largely due to his lack of grappling. Gaethje is very difficult to take down, but he was at his worst against Khabib, who is also an adept grappler. Of course, these are two completely different opponents, but the point is the same, Justin Gaethje doesn’t grapple.

The champion is favoured to win this one, whilst Gaethje is available at 2.37 odds to take the win. Gaethje is primarily a striker who is very uncomfortable on the ground and in a 5 round fight, he will certainly be taken down. Oliveira is a deadly grappler, and he will likely try and use his striking to set up his takedowns. Unfortunately for Justin, the champ is extremely durable and is very difficult to put away, even in a 5 round fight. I expect Oliveira to engage in very short striking exchanges with Gathje, before going for double leg takedowns when least expected. This will prevent him from taking heavy damage and allow him to control the fight on the ground, likely resulting in a submission or decision victory and another title defence.

• Selection: Oliveira to Win
• Best Odds: 1.62 (Marathonbet)
• Stakes: 5/10

More tips for Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje

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Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza Best Bet

Rose Namajunas is the UFC Women’s Strawweight champion looking to make her second title defence in a row after beating Zhang Weili last time around in November 2021. Namajunas has won 6 of her last 7 fights, taking down huge names in the process like Zhang Weili, Jessica Andrade and Joanna Jędrzejczyk. Rose is a very complete fighter with exceptional grappling, but her striking has become just as good recently, and she has very few weaknesses. She suffered only 1 KO/TKO loss in her career 3 years ago but is otherwise a very durable athlete, and her endurance is excellent. This will be her fourth 5-round fight and she should have no problems adapting.

But Carla Esparza is on a winning streak of her own and looking to regain the Strawweight title after 7 years. Esparza turns 35 in October and this will likely be her last opportunity to win the title, and she is coming into this fight riding a 5-fight winning streak. She already beat Namajunas earlier in her career, but this was way back in 2014, and both fighters are at very different stages of their careers. Esparza is primarily a grappler who averages 3.53 takedowns per 15 minutes, and 4 of her 5 last wins have come via decision. She doesn’t fare very well against fighters who can stuff takedowns, and I’m expecting her to struggle to take down her opponent, resulting in cardio issues in the later rounds.

Rose Namajunas has come a long way since her first encounter against Esparza, and her striking has improved leaps and bounds in recent years. She has also gotten much better at stuffing takedowns, and her Jiu-Jitsu makes her a lethal opponent on the ground. She is the much better fighter in this one and at 29 years of age, the champion is in a much better position. She also has a 5-centimetre reach advantage and I expect her striking to be her most useful weapon in this fight, ultimately setting up a KO or a nice submission in the later rounds. Esparza tends to slow down if she isn’t able to dominate fights with her grappling, and I expect her to get finished some time in round 4.

• Selection: Namajunas by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission
• Best Odds: 3.00 (bet365)
• Stakes: 5/10

More tips for Rose Namajunas vs Carla Esparza

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Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson Best Bet

After an unsuccessful title effort against Oliveira, and a decision loss in his brawl against Justin Gaethje, Michael Chandler is looking to get back to the win column at UFC 274. Chandler won his UFC debut in early 2021 with a TKO victory over Dan Hooker, but his 2-fight losing streak is putting his title aspirations on hold, and he needs to win this fight if he hopes to remain a contender. Chandler started his career primarily as a wrestler but has also developed a strong striking game, which was evident in his most recent fight against Gathje. He lands 5.17 strikes per minute and is very difficult to take down with a takedown defence of 71%.

Meanwhile, El Cucuy makes his way back into the octagon after a one-year break hoping to revive his career. Ferguson went on an incredible 12-fight winning streak and won the interim Lightweight title against Cowboy Cerrone, but he was stopped in May 2020 by none other than Justin Gaethje by TKO. Ferguson never recovered his form after that, suffering decision losses to Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush, and his career could be over if he doesn’t put up a solid performance in this one. But should he really be a heavy dog in this fight and are the 4.00 odds to win accurate?

Of course not, El Cucuy is always dangerous, especially when he is on the ropes. He is extremely durable, and that TKO loss against Gaethje was a career first and it came in the 5th round against the hardest hitter in the division. So why is Chandler offered at 1.80 odds to put him away? Don’t ask me, I just do this for a living. Both fighters are well in their 30s, Tony has a 14-centimetre reach advantage and this fight will be a 3-rounder. He is very creative when he steps into the cage, and his peculiar movements make him difficult to hit. It’s very hard to imagine either guy getting a finish in this fight, and if Chandler does get the win, it will most likely be a decision.

• Selection: Fight to go the Distance
• Best Odds: 2.50 (Bet365)
• Stakes: 6/10

More tips for Michael Chandler vs Tony Ferguson

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