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mixed-martial-arts | Thursday, July 28, 2022 9:22 AM (Revised at: Thursday, July 28, 2022 12:15 PM)

UFC 277 Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France Best Bet: 'Assassin Baby' to Get the Finish

UFC 277 Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France Best Bet: 'Assassin Baby' to Get the Finish
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Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France Best Bet: Saturday, July 30th

The co-main event of UFC 277 will feature Brandon Moreno taking on Kai Kara-France for the interim Flyweight belt. Moreno took the victory last time these two faced each other in December 2019, but ‘Don’t Blink’ has bounced back nicely with 4 wins and just 1 loss since. Who will be the next challenger for the UFC Flyweight championship? Find out in the article below.

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Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France Preview

Before diving into the match-up, let’s quickly look at the odds on each fighter. As expected, Brandon Moreno is the favourite to win this one as the bookies have put 1.50 ods to his name (William Hill), whilst Kai Kara-France is the dog at 2.81 (Pinnacle). No complaints here, but this makes it a bit harder to find some betting value. So, let’s look at their overall capabilities and what we can expect in this fight.

Physically, Assasin Baby has a slight edge, with a height difference of 7 centimetres and a reach advantage of 3. Not a crazy gap, but we all know how much having the high ground can mean. Both Moreno and Kara-France are very young, at 28 and 29 years respectively and it’s safe to say that both are in their prime.

We know these two have already faced each other almost 3 years ago, so let’s remember what happened, shall we? Brandon Moreno won the fight via unanimous decision. He displayed exceptional physical conditioning, crisp striking and an immense fight IQ. On the other side, Kara-France got off to a solid start in round 1, but quickly fell off and never even had a chance to win. Moreno’s jab was the X factor in this fight, constantly keeping his opponent at a distance and dictating the range, which is where Moreno has the advantage.

When it comes to form, Kara-France is on a 3-fight winning streak and coming off a decision win over Askar Askarov. Moreno just lost the Flyweight belt against Deiveson Figueiredo in January and is hoping to bounce back with a win against a top contender. He has faced Figueiredo 3 times in the last 2 years, and his game has come a long way during this time.

When it comes to striking power and overall strength, Kai Kara-France is right up there with the best of them with 11 career KO/TKO wins. However, he wasn’t able to put away Moreno in their last fight and we’ve seen that when this happens he has a tendency to gas out and slow down. This is a huge weakness heading into a 5-round event, especially against a fighter like Moreno. Assassin Baby has fought for UFC gold 3 times already and has headlined an event against Sergio Pettis. This experience is extremely valuable, and I expect him to do a much better job at managing his cardio than his opponent.

We all know that Brandon Moreno is a terrific grappler, but I don’t expect this to be his primary weapon in this fight. Despite his 11 career submission wins, he is facing an opponent with elite defensive wrestling, and getting him to the ground will be next to impossible. Failed takedown attempts can be devastating to a fighter’s cardio. This is why we should expect the majority of the fight to take place standing up, and this is where Moreno will definitely have the advantage.

We know that Kai Kara-France is an elite striker with solid power in his hands and a background in Muay-Thai, but this wasn’t enough last time and it won’t be enough now. He won’t be able to knock Moreno out, and with no experience in 5-round events, we can expect him to really start to crumble as the fight goes on. Moreno has developed his striking game immensely in the last 2 years, and the trilogy against the current champion has made him an even better fighter. He will have no problems taking on Kai Kara-France on the feet, and his head/body kicks and quick combinations will serve him well throughout the first 3 rounds. But it’s the championship rounds where I really expect him to shine, and if

Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France Best Bet

With that said, there isn’t that much value in backing Moreno just to win. There’s a strong chance that he will be able to get a finish in either round 4 or 5 and at 3.25 odds, this is looking like the best value bet for the fight.

  • Selection: Moreno to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission
  • Best Odds: 3.25 (Bet35)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 2:00 pm July 28th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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