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mixed-martial-arts | Thursday, June 30, 2022 10:30 AM (Revised at: Friday, July 1, 2022 2:14 PM)

UFC Best Bet: UFC 276 Main Event, Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier

UFC Best Bet: UFC 276 Main Event, Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier
Contributor: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

UFC 276 is here and for the main event, we have Israel Adesanya taking on Jared Cannonier in an attempt to make his 5th title defence in the Middleweight division. The bookmakers are favouring the champ heavily in this one, but we are taking a slightly different approach. Have a look at the article below for my betting analysis & UFC 276 Best Bet.

UFC 276 Best Bet:

  • Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier: Over 2.5 Rounds

Odds as at 02:30 pm June 30 2022. Odds may now differ.


Israel Adesanya vs Jared Cannonier Best Bet

The defending UFC Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya makes his way back to the octagon for his 24th career MMA fight hoping to make his 5th title defence in a row. After making an unsuccessful attempt at the Light-Heavyweight title in early 2021, Adesanya came back to the Middleweight division and took on Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker, winning both bouts.  His last fight against Whittaker was a 5-round close decision victory in mid-February, and after just a 3-month break = – he is back.

Israel Adesanya is by no means the Middleweight champ by chance. He started his career as a kick-boxer and spent 7 years in the sport before making the decision to move to MMA in 2017. His stand-up has always been elite, but he ahs also made huge strides in his takedown defence and ground game, earning a purple belt in BJJ and getting his takedown defence all the way up to 77%. He does an excellent job of keeping opponents at a distance, with 87% of his blows last fight landing from long range, and anyone who tried to play this game with him has been defeated.

In the other corner, Jared Cannonier is making his first attempt at UFC gold since joining the organization way back in 2015. Jared initially started in the light-heavyweight division, but after suffering losses to Glover Teixeira, Jan Blachowicz and Dominick Reyes, he decided to cut some weight and move to Middleweight. Since joining the division, Cannonier has a record of 5 wins and just 1 loss which naturally came against the second-best fighter in the division – Robert Whittaker.

Jared Cannonier made his name in the division as a heavy striker who can put people away in a hurry. He has a career total of 10 KO/TKO wins, and 4 of them have come since he joined the Middleweights. He lands  3.76 strikes per minute and he lands 50% of his takedowns, whilst only landing  0.23 per 15 minutes. His best shot in this fight will be the Kelvin Gastelum approach, meaning he will try and close the distance and hope for an eventual KO/TKO.

According to Unibet, 92% of bettors are backing Israel Adesanya to win this one, and he is available at 1.22 to make it happen. It makes sense. He is younger, has a 6-centimetre reach advantage, has better and more technical striking, and is very difficult to take down and keep on the ground. But we’re backing Cannonier tonight. Not to win, of course! We’re backing him to survive until the end of the 4th round. Unfortunately, there isn’t a lot of value in this one, but we can count on one thing. Since becoming champion, Adesanya loves to keep things slow, keep his distance and throw shots from the outside. His last 3 fights went the distance and I’m backing a similar result in this one. He will be afraid of Jared’s KO power, and  I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another decision.

  • Selection: Over 3.5 Rounds
  • Best odds: 1.61 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 7/10

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