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mixed-martial-arts | Wednesday, July 13, 2022 11:00 AM (Revised at: Saturday, July 16, 2022 3:43 PM)

UFC Best Bet: UFC Fight Night, Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez

UFC Best Bet: UFC Fight Night, Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez
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With an ROI of 9.60% on all UFC Best Bets so far, I’m looking to continue our profitable run with another high-value bet this upcoming weekend. The main event of UFC Fight Night: Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez takes place this Saturday evening at UBS Arena in Elmont and the main event could have a huge impact on the Featherweight title race. Brian Ortega will face Yair Rodrguez in the main event, and the winner will likely get a shot at UFC gold against the reigning champ Alexander Volkanovski.

UFC Fight Night Best Bet: 

  • Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez: Ortega to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission

Odds as at 3:00 pm, July 14th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez Best Bet

The 2nd-ranked Featherweight fighter in the UFC Brian T-City Ortega is hoping to earn his 3rd attempt at UFC gold this weekend. With a record of 15 wins and just 2 losses under his belt, T-City is definitely one of the most dangerous fighters in the division and always near title contention. That said, he is coming off a unanimous decision loss to the champ Alexander Volkanovski where, despite having 2 superb submission attempts, he got outmatched. His only 2 career losses came in title fights against Max Halloway and Volk – the champ and the number one contender! Not bad!

Ortega is one of the most durable fighters in the division, never having been properly knocked out or submitted in his career. The only TKO loss on his resume was due to a doctor’s stoppage against Max Halloway. His striking is at a solid level, but that’s not what we are counting on to win him the fight. By far his most lethal weapon is his elite grappling. We saw a prime example in his most recent fight, where he was able to easily get his opponent in very tight submission attempts. Unfortunately, Volkanovski was able to slip away, but don’t expect the same from Rodriguez.

As the 3rd-placed fighter in the UFC Featherweight division, Yair Rodriguez is looking to earn his first-ever shot at UFC gold at 29 years of age. He is coming off a devastating unanimous decision loss to Max Halloway where he got schooled in the stand-up and a win here would go a long way. But can he get it done? Admittedly, Yaiur has a slight advantage in the striking department, landing 0.50 strikes more per minute than T-City, but this is a neglectable statistic.

Who wins fights at the highest level? The fighter with the bigger arsenal. We’ve seen this before far too many times. A fighter is exceptional at one aspect of his game, but one-dimensional fighters are extinct in the UFC and have been for quite some time. These two fighters are evenly matched in the striking department, but Ortega’s Jiu Jitsu is deadly. He is the more durable fighter and he is capable of finishing the fight with a submission when he is at a disadvantage. I backed Volk to beat him last time, but now I’m looking at Ortega to provide some solid value even as a favourite at 1.59 odds (Pinnacle). Let’s face it T-City doesn’t have the most powerful hands in the division, but he can still put people away. I’m counting on a slick guillotine choke in the later rounds to put Ortega over the top.

  • Selection: Ortega to win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission
  • Best Odds: 2.62 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 2/10

More tips for Brian Ortega vs Yair Rodriguez

Odds as at 3:00 pm, July 14th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

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