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mixed-martial-arts | Thursday, May 12, 2022 8:21 AM (Revised at: Saturday, May 14, 2022 4:47 PM)

UFC Fight Night Best Bet: Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic

UFC Fight Night Best Bet: Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic
Contributor: Sipa US / Alamy Stock Photo

The title elimination bout between Jan Blachowicz and Aleksandar Rakic is scheduled for this Saturday night with the main event starting early Sunday morning at 03:00 (UK time). Will Jan Blachowicz get another chance at the Light-heavyweight title or will the rising prospect Aleksandar Rakic finally get his shot? Take a look at my Best Bet & Analysis in the article below.

UFC Fight Night Best Bet:

  • Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic: Rakic by Decision or Technical Decision

Odds as at 2 pm May 12th 2022. Odds may now differ.

Jan Blachowicz vs Aleksandar Rakic Best Bet

After blowing past Dominick Reyes to win the vacant Light-Heavyweight title, Jan Blachowicz successfully defended the title against the reigning Middleweight champ Israel Adesanya. But Ja’s title reign quickly came to an end just a few months later after facing Glover Teixeira and losing via submission. Jan looked like a completely different fighter that night and was easily brought down, with little resistance. He is now working to regain the Light-Heavyweight title, and a win against the 3-rd ranked fighter in the division would surely guarantee him a shot at the gold.

Jan Blachowicz holds an MMA record of 28 wins and 9 losses, and at 39 years of age, this is likely his last chance of becoming the champ again. He is known throughout the MMA world as a very dangerous striker, and his legendary Polish Power is definitely his main weapon.

Jan does have 8 career submission victories and has a black belt in BJJ, but he isn’t exactly known as a prominent grappler. Despite ragdolling Adesanya in his first UFC defence, he only averages 1.14 takedowns per 15 minutes in his career, as he likes to rely on his striking more.

At 30 years of age, Aleksandar Rakic is by far the younger fighter in this one, and having won 6 of his 7 UFC fights so far, he is looking to make his first attempt at the title. After suffering a decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir, Rakic bounced back with 2 decision victories against Anthony Smith and Thiago Santos. His most recent in the octagon against Santos can only be described as timid. Both fighters came into the octagon with too much respect, and we only saw a total of 212 strike attempts and 3 unsuccessful takedowns.

But with a takedown defence of 90%, 4.23 strikes landed per minute and a lethal striking arsenal, Rakic is my pick to win this one. I still expect him to come out with a lot of caution, especially because this is a 5-round main event, but there are several factors which should help him come out on top.

Rakic has never been KOed in his career, he is significantly younger, is in better shape and his kicks are crippling. His leg kicks are usually enough to keep opponents at a distance until he is good and ready to go for a finish. Don’t forget, Rakic also has 9 career KO/TKO wins and is very explosive and athletic for a Light-Heavyweight.

I expect the fight to start off slow, but after a few striking and grappling exchanges, Jan will start to gas out and lose focus. This will allow Rakic to pick him apart from a distance before starting to go for takedowns, eventually resulting in a decision victory at the end of round 5.

  • Selection: Rakic by Decision or Technical Decision
  • Best Odds: 3.00 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 3/10

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