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mixed-martial-arts | Wednesday, August 3, 2022 9:29 AM (Revised at: Friday, August 5, 2022 9:49 PM)

UFC Fight Night Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Best Bet: Good Night and Sweet Dreams for Santos

UFC Fight Night Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Best Bet: Good Night and Sweet Dreams for Santos
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Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Best Bet: Saturday, August 6th

With a successful UFC 277 under our belt at +5.03 units of profit, we can turn our attention to the very next event, which is UFC Fight Night: Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill. It’s a tale as old as time, on one side we have the older veteran with tons of fighting experience, and on the other, we have the young buck hungry to ascend the rankings with a high-profile win. Who are we backing this Saturday night? Find out in the article below.

In this article:


Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Preview

Saturday, August 6th

I would be remiss if I failed to start this analysis with at least a brief mention of the career of Thiago Santos. Thiago ‘Marreta’ Santos has been with the UFC since 2013 and has amassed a career MMA record of 22 wins (15 by KO/TKO) and 10 losses. However, half of those Ls have come in the last 4 years and despite a career of knocking out people like Jan Błachowicz, Jack Hermansson, and Jimi Manuwa, it’s time to call it quits. Since facing Jon Jones at UFC 239, his injury issues, as well as age, have caused him to lose 4 of his last 5 fights.

The only win he has to his record in the last 3 years was a decision against Johny Walker, and he is now coming off a very one-sided loss to Magomed Ankalaev. He hasn’t been the same knockout machine we’ve gotten used to seeing, and at 38 years of age, it’s hard to imagine him bouncing back.

In the blue corner, we have Jamahal Hill, an equally exciting fighter fighting out of Grand Rapids, Michigan. At 31 years of age, Hill is 10th in the Light-Heavyweight rankings, and victory here could get him within arms reach of a title shot. He’s won 4* of his last 5 fights, with the only loss being a TKO loss to Paul Craig more than a year ago. Hey, it’s Paul Craig, it happens. And yes, I’m counting that TKO win against Klidson Abreu as a victory, I don’t care that it’s been ruled a no-contest afterwards due to Hill testing positive for the Devil’s lettuce. A win is a win!

It’s fairly obvious how this fight is going to go, and the bookmakers have adjusted accordingly. Santos is the heavy dog at 3.40 odds whilst Hill is favoured at 1.33, and for good reason. There aren’t many ways in which Santos can pull off a win here. He’s shorter, lighter, has a 3-inch reach disadvantage, is older, has injuries, and has suffered 3 career TKO/KO losses. That said, he does have a tendency to explode in the earlier stages of fights, which we saw in each of his last 5 as well, but those explosions have stopped resulting in knockouts, and in a 5-round event, like we have here, this will only lead to him gassing out and getting finished.

Thiago Santos vs Jamahal Hill Best Bet

Now that we’ve got all of that out of the way, let’s have a look at the best possible value bet. 85% of bettors are backing Hill to get the win, and he’s the heavy favourite at 1.33 odds at bet365, as well as at 1.61 to win by KO/TKO/Sub/DQ. Santos is available at 3.40 odds but with his for, injuries and age, I really don’t think it’s worth it to take a chance.

Backing a fighter to win at 1.33 odds certainly isn’t my cup of tea, and if you’ve read at least one of my articles at here at bettingexpert, you’d know that underdogs have always been the way to go. Unfortunately, there’s no value in backing that either.

The only thing really left is backing the exact outcome of the fight. It’s nos secret that I expect Hill to finish the fight way before the 5th round. He’s younger, longer and is in a much better state of his career. 1.61 odds on this outcome is far from what we’re used to, but we’ll take it. Hill to finish the fight with a straight right hand to the jaw (likely in the 2nd round), at lower stakes.

  • Selection: Jamahal Hill to Win by KO/TKO/DQ/Submission
  • Best Odds: 1.61 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 12:30 pm August 4th 2022. Odds may now differ.

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