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Mixed martial arts | Friday, September 16, 2022 1:13 PM (Revised at: Saturday, September 17, 2022 8:21 AM)

UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks: 2 Value Bets for Saturday Night

UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks: 2 Value Bets for Saturday Night
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UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks: September 17th

I’m back after a 2 week vacation that unfortunately had me missing out on UFC 279. But we’re still going strong with our UFC picks at 9.63% ROI and I’m keen to keep this trend going heading into UFC Vegas this Saturday. I’ve got 2 solid picks ready and waiting, so let’s not waste any time.

In this article:

Andre Fili vs Bill Algeo Preview & Pick

Our first bet of the day will feature two UFC veterans in the Featherweight division taking place right before the co-main event. Andre Fili will be taking on Bill Algeo, and the bookmakers have Fili as the slight favourite at 1.80 odds, whilst Algeo is available at 2.00.

Andre Fili has been with the UFC since 2013 and with a record of 21 wins and 9 losses, he is one of the last remaining long-time vets in the game. At 32 years of age, he is still very much capable of competing in the organization, but his recent form has left a lot to be desired.

Fili has won just 1 of his last 5 fights and is coming off a TKO loss to Joanderson Brito in April. He absorbs 3.92 strikes per minute and I expect his recent loss to have a significant impact on his performance in this one. Getting TKOed in just 40 seconds of action is a major confidence killer, and I expect a very cautious approach from Fili this Saturday.

On the other side, Bill Algeo has just turned 33, and his late birthday present was a KO victory over Herbert Burns just 2 months ago. He also faced Joanderson Brito in January and won by unanimous decision, and it’s safe to say Algeo is in excellent form at the moment.

He is a very skilled striker, landing 5.17 strikes per minute, and despite not having the most knockout power in the division, he is capable of putting people away every now and again. I wouldn’t put money on an Algeo KO victory, but a decision win looks very tempting at 3.00 odds. That said, Algeo is a slight underdog and you can find him at 2.10 to win at Pinnacle. Only 15% of punters are backing him at Unibet, whilst Tapology s getting around 80% of votes for him to win. The betting value is with Bill Algeo.

  • Selection: Bill Algeo to Win
  • Best Odds: 2.10 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 03:00 pm on September 16th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Andre FIli vs Bill Algeo Tips

Andre Fili vs Bill Algeo Preview & Pick

For our second selection, we move to the prelims where Aspen Ladd and Sara McMann will touch gloves in the women’s Bantamweight division. Ladd is ranked 7th in the UFC athlete rankings and is the slight favourite to win at 1.72 odds whilst McMann is 8th and valued at around 2.10.

At just 27 years of age, Aspen Ladd is just at the beginning of her MMA career, and with a record of 9 wins and 3 losses, she is an exciting young prospect. However, she has won just 1 of her last 4 fights and is coming off a decision loss to Raquel Pennington back in April. Ladd lands 3.78 and absorbs 4.65 strikes per minute, and her takedown defence of 62% could use some improvement.

Meanwhile, Sara McMann is a true veteran in the UFC, having been with the organization since 2013. Her record of 13 wins and 6 losses isn’t exactly something that catches the eye, but if you take a look at her losses, it’s nothing to scoff at. Ronda Rousey, Miesha Tate, Amanda Nunes, Ketlen Vieira, and Julianna Pena have managed to get the better of Sara McMann but this is some truly elite competition.

McMann is not much of a striker, but averaging 4.38 takedowns per 15 minutes and absorbing just 1.92 strikes per minute is definitely an advantage here. She is an excellent grappler with 5 submission wins, and her game plan is very simple. Go for takedowns, smother your opponent and go for submissions from time to time. She did this in her most recent decision win over Karol Rosa, and I expect a similar outcome on Saturday.

  • Selection: Sara McMann to win by Decision or Technical Decision
  • Best Odds: 3.00 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 1/10

Odds as at 03:00 pm on September 16th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Aspen Ladd vs Sara McMann tips

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