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mixed-martial-arts | Friday, September 30, 2022 2:00 PM (Revised at: Saturday, October 1, 2022 5:05 PM)

UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks: Dern Smash, Davis Bash

UFC Fight Night Vegas Picks: Dern Smash, Davis Bash
Contributor: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

The UFC is back after a short hiatus, and we are looking to keep the ball rolling heading into October. We faced our first losing event in a while 2 weeks ago, but we are still very much in profit with our UFC bets with an ROI of 9.22%. I’ve got 2 more value bets for this weekend’s UFC action, and both of them will be on the main card. Enjoy!

In this article:


Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan Preview & Pick

In the main event of UFC Vegas 61, we have Mackenzie Dern taking on Yan Xiaonan in the women’s Strawweight division. Dern is currently ranked 5th in the division whilst Xiaonan is 6th.

Mackenzie Dern has won 5 of her last 6 fights and is coming off a split decision victory over Tecia Torres back in April. She only has 2 career losses, both coming by decision and she is very close to earning a title shot in the Strawweights. Her fighting style is mostly based on her extensive Jiu Jitsu background, having won multiple ADCC gold, silver and bronze medals in world competitions. Her striking leaves a lot to be desired, landing just 3.16 and absorbing 4.35 per minute, but her grappling more than makes up for it.

Dern is very dangerous on the ground, averaging 2.0 submission attempts per 15, and getting 7 of her 12 career MMA wins by submission. At 29 years of age, she is just entering her prime, and her striking should see a significant improvement in the next couple of years.

Yan Xiaonan is looking to get her career back on track after suffering 2 losses in a row at the hands of Carla Esparza and Marina Rodriguez. She started off quite well back in 2017, winning 7 fights in a row and quickly ascending the Strawweight rankings. However, the TKO loss to Esparza has been a huge setback.

Now, the 33-year-old fighter out of Shenyang, China is in desperate need of a victory after a split decision loss back in March. But will it happen? I’m saying no. As good a striker as she is, I don’t expect this to be enough to get the job done. She does have 7 career KO wins, but her takedown defence is at 65%, and if Carla Esparza can get you down and dominate you, chances are Mackenzie Dern can do the same.

  • Selection: Dern to Win
  • Best Odds: 1.46 (GGbet)
  • Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 3:00 am on September 30th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Mackenzie Dern vs Yan Xiaonan Tips


Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev Preview & Pick

The second fight on our docket is the Lightweight.
Mike Davis is crazy. Remember when he made his UFC debut? Yeah, it was a short-notice fight against Gilbert Burns. That’s a career death wish for most people, but not for Mike Davis. I have to be honest guys, I love that approach. True, he did get submitted in the 2nd round, but who cares. He came right back 6 months later and TKO-ed Thomas Gifford. A year later he wins a unanimous decision against Mason Jones with an excellent striking performance.

Mike Davis is a very dangerous striker. With 7 of his wins coming by KO/KO, you never want to let your guard down when facing him. He looked very sharp in his last bout, and despite taking a year and a half off, he’s only turning 20 this month, and I don’t see him slowing down. He averages 6.24 strikes per minute, to go along with 1.39 takedowns per 15.

Viacheslav Borshchev made his way to the UFC last year via Dana White’s Contender Series. He won his UFC debut against Dakota Bush via KO but lost his very next fight against Marc Diakiese via decision in March this year. Striking is definitely his main weapon, but he only lands 2.85 per minute, whilst his takedown defence is at 35%. He took this fight on short notice, and I don’t expect him to be prepared to face a striker like Davis. He’s durable and he won’t get KO-ed, but a decision win for Davis is the most likely outcome.

  • Selection: Davis to Win
  • Best Odds: 1.57
  • Stakes: 5/10

Odds as at 2:30 am on September 30th, 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Mike Davis vs Viacheslav Borshchev Tips


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