In this guide we will share with you some key points in the hope that you too can improve your Over/Under betting.
How To Bet On Over Unders
To obtain a true assessment of a team’s potential to score you have to look deeper and you have to take a longer term view. Consider their scoring form over the last 20 matches, or even longer. It depends upon the sport, league and in general, the number and frequency of games played.
Yes, recent form should be taken into account. But a sure way to continually come out on the wrong side of an Over/Under bet, is to become easily seduced by a recent run of high or low scoring games.
And more to the point, it’s recent form that the naive betting public is often seduced by, which means their are opportunities in the Over/Under markets for those of us who like to consider true potential rather than impulsive knee-jerk reactions to a mere few weeks of form.
Just look at a couple of simple examples. In the 2010/2011 Premier League season, Blackburn home matches went Under 2.5 goals on 13 of 19 occasions. But away from home, Blackburn matches were Under 2.5 goals in just 6 of 19 matches. On the other hand, Fulham home matches went Under 2.5 goals in 8 of 19 occasions, while their away matches went Under 13 times.
So the point should be clear, that when considering the Over or Under in a particular contest, consider where the game is being played and how either club has performed in that situation.
Let’s say Chelsea have played 15 home matches with 45 total goals scored in those matches. That’s an average of 3 goals scored per match. The Over/Under 2.5 goals is paying even money. Looks tempting considering Chelsea’s home form in goal totals.
Now let’s say that two of those 15 matches were particularly high scoring, for example, a 4-2 and a 5-1 result, seeing a total of 12 combined goals scored. These two irregular results have severely distorted the average, which would be 2.53 in the other 13 matches.
What may have looked like an excellent opportunity to bet the Over 2.5 goals, suddenly seems less enticing.
So while averages can be helpful in large sample sizes, in general, it’s best to track occurrences. Look at how many times a team has gone over or under a particular goal total. In our Chelsea example, it could well be that while the average for the 15 home matches may be 3 goals per match, but that the actual number of times Chelsea home games have gone Over 2.5 goals could be less than 50% with a few high scoring matches giving an inaccurate and distorted impression. Perhaps Chelsea home games have only gone over 2.5 goals on 7 occasions.
Even if the average is 3 goals per match, would you feel good about betting the Over if the occurrence rate was so low? Probably not.
At the same time, value is wherever you can find it. And if you’ve crunched the numbers and have identified greater value in a higher or lower than typical goal total line, then by all means, take advantage of it.
But in general, we would encourage you to stick to the basics and concentrate on ‘even money’ Over/Under lines. You’ll find your results to be far more consistent.
And in terms of analysis, it’s far easier to find historical odds data resources for analysis on the web for these markets than it is the more exotic variety.
More than that, the general public usually only considers scorelines and bookmakers more or less frame their odds on what the expectation is of the average football bettor. Having a deeper understanding of scoring potential can give you a great edge and will see you reap the rewards on the balance sheet.
And similarly, only pay attention to a sample size of a minimum 2 or preferably 3 matches. Sure, the last meeting between two clubs might have been an unexpected 5 goal result. But it’s one match and in itself doesn’t mean much.
On the other hand, if you see that the clubs have consistently gone over 2.5 goals in each of their last 4 meetings in the last 2 seasons, then that is just the thing you want to make a note of in your analysis.
And don’t just look at the situational trends of the particular clubs competing. Look deeper and seek out league wide trends. Are matches higher scoring at the beginning of the league season or towards the end? Make sure that you also consider the sport as well. NHL over unders might be different from other hockey leagues, etc.
These sorts of things are good to take into account in your overall analysis, and can often give you an edge and an angle that the general betting public just simply isn’t aware of.