Sao Paulo vs. Ceara Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 30 September 2025

The upcoming Serie A clash between Sao Paulo and Ceara is set to be a fascinating encounter. With Sao Paulo sitting in 7th place and Ceara in 12th, both teams will be eager to secure vital three points to climb up the standings.

Sao Paulo, under the guidance of Hernán Crespo, is the bookmaker’s favorite with odds of 1.64 to win. However, their recent form has been shaky, as evidenced by their LWLLL record in the last five games. Injuries have plagued the team, notably sidelining key players like Jonathan Calleri and seasoned midfielder Oscar. Meanwhile, Ceara, led by Leo Conde, also face challenges, drawing their last match against Bahia and featuring a top scorer, Pedro Raul, who is out with a muscle injury.

Given both teams’ recent struggles with finding the net — Sao Paulo with an average of 0.20 goals and Ceara with 0.60 goals in their last five games — a low-scoring match is anticipated. A recommended bet is on under 2.5 goals, reflecting market expectations for a tight contest. Both teams are also prone to conceding late goals, particularly between the 76-90 minute mark.

Incorporating the weather forecast and refereeing appointments further would provide a complete picture, though they are currently unavailable. This match should help shape the trailing end of the Serie A table as both sides look to gain a crucial win.

Sao Paulo vs Ceara Prediction & Betting Tip

The best bet recommendation for this Serie A matchup between Sao Paulo and Ceara is to bet on "Under 2.5 Goals."

Sao Paulo vs Ceara Prediction

Betting tip	Odds
Under 2.5 Goals	1.53

• Low Scoring Averages: Sao Paulo averages just 1.13 goals per match, while Ceara averages 0.96. Both teams have also averaged 1.00 goals conceded per match, indicating a low-scoring tendency.
• Injury Impact: Key attacking players for both teams are missing due to injuries. Sao Paulo will be without Jonathan Calleri and André Silva, while Ceara’s top scorer Pedro Raul is also out. This significantly reduces the attacking threat for both sides.
• Odds Favoring Low Scoring: The odds for Under 2.5 Goals are 1.53, indicating strong market confidence in a low-scoring affair.

Given these factors, betting on Under 2.5 Goals appears to be the most statistically supported option.

Sao Paulo vs Ceara Odds

The odds for the upcoming Serie A match between Sao Paulo and Ceara highlight Sao Paulo as the favorites.

Sao Paulo vs Ceara Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Sao Paulo	1.64
Draw	3.49
Ceara	5.71

These odds reflect the current form and standings of both teams. Sao Paulo, sitting in 7th place with 35 points, is strongly favored to win, especially playing at home.

In contrast, Ceara, positioned 12th with 28 points, faces an uphill battle. The draw at 3.49 showcases the perceived tightness of the match given Sao Paulo’s recent struggles and Ceara’s recent draws.

Punters might find value in betting on a draw or even a surprise win for Ceara given their better-than-expected records in similar fixtures.

Sao Paulo Team Analysis

Sao Paulo Recent Performance:

Sao Paulo’s recent form in Serie A has not been up to their usual standards, featuring just one win in their last five matches. Their recent results are:

• Sao Paulo 0-1 LDU de Quito (2025-09-25)
• Santos FC 1-0 Sao Paulo (2025-09-21)
• LDU de Quito 2-0 Sao Paulo (2025-09-18)
• Sao Paulo 1-0 Botafogo RJ (2025-09-14)
• Cruzeiro 1-0 Sao Paulo (2025-08-31)

In these games, they’ve managed to score only one goal and have kept just one clean sheet. On average, Sao Paulo has struggled offensively with just 0.20 goals per game over the last five fixtures. Injuries to key players like Jonathan Calleri and André Silva haven’t helped their cause, impacting their ability to consistently find the back of the net. Their defense also needs tightening, given the narrow margins by which they have lost games. This upcoming match against Ceara is crucial for Sao Paulo if they hope to remain in the fight for higher league positions.

Sao Paulo Key Players

Sao Paulo will be looking to their top scorer Andre, who has netted five goals this season, to lead the attack. In Jonathan Calleri’s absence due to injury, the responsibility falls heavily on Andre and the attacking duo Luciano Neves and Ferreira.

The midfield will revolve around the energetic presence of Pablo Maia, who will look to control the tempo and distribute creatively alongside Damian Bobadilla and Emiliano Ariel Rigoni. Sao Paulo’s defense, marshaled by Robert Arboleda and Alan Franco, needs to be alert to counter Ceara’s offensive plays.

Expected lineup for Sao Paulo:

• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defenders: Rafael Toloi, Robert Arboleda, Alan Franco
• Midfielders: Cedric Soares, Damian Bobadilla, Pablo Maia, Rodriguinho, Enzo Díaz
• Forwards: Luciano, Aldemir Ferreira

Key individual battles include Andre facing off against Ceara’s robust defense led by Marcos Victor, and the midfield tussle between Pablo Maia and Dieguinho.

Sao Paulo Suspensions & Injuries

Sao Paulo is facing a challenging injury list that could significantly impact their performance in the match against Ceara. Key players sidelined include:

• Jonathan Calleri: Cruciate ligament injury, expected to return in early December 2025
• Ryan Francisco: Cruciate ligament injury, out for the rest of the season
• Oscar: Back injury, potential return mid-October 2025
• André Silva: Cruciate ligament injury, out for the rest of the season
• Luan Santos: Thigh injury, potential return early October 2025

The absence of these crucial players, especially forwards like Calleri and André Silva, means Sao Paulo will struggle to maintain their offensive threat. The midfield will also miss the experience and composure of Oscar. This spate of injuries means that younger or less experienced players will need to step up if Sao Paulo is to secure a positive result. With such setbacks, it’s evident why a strategic and less attacking approach might be on the cards for Hernán Crespo’s side.

Sao Paulo Tactics and Formation

Sao Paulo, under the direction of Hernán Crespo, is likely to employ a 4-3-3 formation in their match against Ceara. This setup is aimed at balancing their defense while providing ample support to the forwards.

Sao Paulo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Andre
• Midfield Trio: Pablo Maia, Damian Bobadilla, Rodriguinho
• Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in their last five games
• Notable Strategy: Versatile attacking play, typically looking to utilize the width through Cedric Soares and Enzo Díaz on the flanks

In the absence of key attackers like Jonathan Calleri, the central midline will be crucial to creating opportunities. Pablo Maia’s energetic play in midfield will be vital to breaking down Ceara’s defense. Expect Sao Paulo to press high and often look to capitalize on late-game fatigue of their opponents, despite their own recent vulnerabilities in the closing stages of matches.

Ceara Team Analysis

Ceara Recent Performance:

Ceara’s recent form has been marked by a series of undistinguished performances, as they managed just three points from their last five matches. Their recent results are:

• Ceara 1-1 Bahia (2025-09-20)
• Vasco da Gama 2-2 Ceara (2025-09-14)
• Ceara 0-1 Juventude (2025-08-30)
• Gremio 0-0 Ceara (2025-08-24)
• Bahia 1-0 Ceara (2025-08-21)

In these matches, Ceara has averaged 0.60 goals per game, with only one clean sheet, which highlights their struggles both offensively and defensively. Their ongoing winless streak signifies a period of difficulty, exacerbated by key injuries including their top scorer Pedro Raul, who is out with a muscle injury. Ceara has conceded goals in critical moments, especially in the final 15 minutes of games, which compounds their issues. This upcoming clash against Sao Paulo is crucial for Ceara to regain form and climb up the table. With 28 points, they are positioned 12th in the standings and desperately need a positive result to stay clear of relegation concerns.

Ceara Key Players

Ceara will look to players like Lourenco and Paulo Baya to carry the offensive burden in the absence of their top scorer, Pedro Raul. Without Raul, who has netted seven goals this season, Ceara’s attack might struggle to break down Sao Paulo’s defenses.

In midfield, Dieguinho’s ability to connect the play and create opportunities will be vital, while Richardson’s defensive acumen will be essential in breaking up Sao Paulo’s attacks. Defenders Marcos Victor and Willian Machado must be robust at the back to contain Sao Paulo’s key players like Andre and Luciano.

Expected lineup for Ceara:

• Goalkeeper: Bruno Ferreira
• Defenders: Fabiano, Marcos Victor, Willian Machado, Matheus Bahia
• Midfielders: Richardson, Dieguinho, Antonio Galeano, Lourenco, Pedro Henrique
• Forward: Paulo Baya

Key individual battles to watch out for include Paulo Baya against Sao Paulo’s center-backs and the midfield contest between Dieguinho and Pablo Maia.

Ceara Suspensions & Injuries

Ceara will head into their match against Sao Paulo with a few critical absentees that could impact their performance.

Injuries:

• Pedro Raul: Muscle injury, expected to return in about 1-2 weeks
• Luiz Otávio: Knee surgery, potential return early October 2025
• Lucas Mugni: Thigh injury, potential return early October 2025

Suspensions:

• Aylon: Suspended due to accumulation of yellow cards, banned for 1 match

The absence of top scorer Pedro Raul will be particularly felt, diminishing Ceara’s attacking prowess. Luiz Otávio and Lucas Mugni’s injuries further weaken their defensive and midfield options. Aylon’s suspension also limits their attacking choices, placing more pressure on players like Paulo Baya and Lourenco to step up. These absentees could leave Ceara vulnerable both at the back and upfront, making their task against Sao Paulo even more challenging.

Ceara Tactics and Formation

Ceara, managed by Leo Conde, typically employs a 4-2-3-1 formation, aimed at providing balance between defense and attack. In their match against Sao Paulo, this tactical setup is expected to be maintained.

Ceara Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Paulo Baya
• Attacking Midfielders: Richardson, Dieguinho, Lourenco
• Defensive Strength: One clean sheet in their last five games
• Notable Strategy: Compact defensive structure, often relying on counter-attacks during transitions

With the absence of their top scorer Pedro Raul, the attacking emphasis will be on Paulo Baya, supported by the creativity of Lourenco and defensive solidity from Richardson. The defense, led by Marcos Victor and Willian Machado, must stay organized to withstand Sao Paulo’s offensive threats. Ceara’s strategy will likely focus on exploiting gaps left by the opposition, while maintaining a disciplined defensive shape to minimize risks.

Sao Paulo vs Ceara Head-to-Head Statistics

The head-to-head statistics between Sao Paulo and Ceara show a series of competitive and closely contested matches over the recent years. Here are the last five encounters:

• Ceara 1-1 Sao Paulo (2025-04-26 Serie A)
• Ceara 0-2 Sao Paulo (2022-09-18 Serie A)
• Ceara 2-1 (3-4 on penalties) Sao Paulo (2022-08-10 Copa Sudamericana)
• Sao Paulo 1-0 Ceara (2022-08-03 Copa Sudamericana)
• Sao Paulo 2-2 Ceara (2022-05-28 Serie A)

Sao Paulo has had the upper hand in these contests, with a record of two wins, two draws, and one loss. Their last home encounter against Ceara ended in a 2-2 draw, indicating a fiercely fought match.

These stats suggest that the upcoming clash is likely to be competitive, with both teams having a history of tight contests. Given these historical results and current form, fans can expect another closely fought battle at the Estádio do Morumbi.

Odds accurate as of 28/09/2025 00:03, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.