Derby vs West Bromwich Prediction, Match Preview, Friday, 23 January

Derby face West Bromwich in a Championship clash at Pride Park on Friday, 23 January. This fixture is set to be a significant encounter in the league, with both teams looking to strengthen their positions in the standings. Derby, playing at home, will be eager to capitalise on familiar surroundings to secure vital points.

West Bromwich, meanwhile, will aim to challenge Derby’s home advantage with a strong performance. The Championship is renowned for its competitive nature, and this match promises to be closely contested. With both teams harbouring promotion ambitions, the outcome at Pride Park could have important implications for their respective campaigns.

Derby vs West Bromwich Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Under 2.5 Goals	1.72

This Championship clash looks set to be a tight, low-scoring affair. Given recent form and team circumstances, our betting tip is to back under 2.5 goals. Both teams have lacked a clinical edge up front, and their matches have historically produced few goals.

• Three of their last five head-to-head matches have produced under 2.5 goals.
• Key attacking players are missing for both teams, making goals less likely.
• Both teams have managed just one win in their last five matches, reflecting their struggles in front of goal.

Betting Odds

As Derby prepare to host West Bromwich at Pride Park, the betting odds suggest a closely contested Championship clash. Derby are slight favourites at odds of 2.51, but West Bromwich are not far behind at 2.89, indicating a tight match-up.

Betting Tip	Odds
Derby to win	2.51
Draw	3.03
West Brom to win	2.89

The draw is priced at 3.03, which could appeal to those expecting a stalemate. With both teams looking to climb the table, punters might find value in the over 2.5 goals market, given the attacking intent both sides have shown recently.

Derby Analysis & Past Performance

Derby have displayed a mixed bag of performances in recent matches, reflecting both resilience and vulnerability. Across their last five outings, they have secured three victories, including a significant away win against Charlton (2-1) and a hard-fought victory over Preston (1-0). However, setbacks were evident in defeats to Leeds (1-3) and Wrexham (1-2), indicating inconsistency in their form.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Charlton	Derby	1 – 2 (Win)	Championship	20 Jan 2026
Preston	Derby	0 – 1 (Win)	Championship	17 Jan 2026
Derby	Leeds	1 – 3 (Loss)	FA Cup	11 Jan 2026
Derby	Wrexham	1 – 2 (Loss)	Championship	4 Jan 2026
Derby	Middlesbrough	1 – 0 (Win)	Championship	1 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
Derby’s attack has been relatively productive, averaging 1.20 goals per game over their last five matches, while conceding an average of 1.20 goals. This balance has been reflective of their overall season, having scored 38 and conceded 36 across 28 matches. Despite their mid-table position of 10th in the Championship, Derby have struggled at home, with just one win in their last five home fixtures, suggesting a need to fortify their defence at Pride Park.

Strengths & Weaknesses:

• WWLLW

A key strength for Derby has been their ability to score consistently, with Carlton Morris leading the way as top scorer with 10 goals. Nonetheless, defensive frailties are evident, as they have managed only two clean sheets in their last five games. This defensive instability, particularly at home with a win ratio of just 0.20, could be a critical area for improvement as they aim to climb the table.

Derby Suspensions & Injuries

Derby face a significant challenge in their upcoming match against West Bromwich due to the absence of several key players. The suspension of Matt Clarke, a crucial part of their defensive line, will force manager John Eustace to make adjustments. Clarke’s one-match ban for yellow/red card accumulation means Derby will need to find a reliable replacement to maintain defensive stability.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Matt Clarke	Yellow/red card	1	Unknown

Injuries compound Derby’s woes, with Owen Beck and Max Johnston both sidelined with hamstring injuries, expected to return by mid-February. Carlton Morris, dealing with a knee injury, and Dion Sanderson, suffering from shin splints, are also unavailable, limiting Derby’s options in both attack and defence. These injuries might prompt a tactical reshuffle, possibly requiring younger squad members to step up.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Owen Beck	Hamstring Injury	Mid February 2026
Carlton Morris	Knee Injury	Early February 2026
Max Johnston	Hamstring Injury	Mid February 2026
Dion Sanderson	Shin Splints	Early March 2026

With these absences, Derby’s depth will be tested, and the tactical impact could be profound. They may need to adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on counter-attacks and set-pieces to exploit any defensive weaknesses in West Bromwich’s line-up. Bettors should consider these absences, as they could significantly influence the match outcome.

Derby Key Players

Derby will be relying heavily on the influence of Ben Brereton Díaz in midfield to dictate play and create scoring opportunities. Although their top scorer, Carlton Morris, is unavailable, Brereton Díaz’s ability to exploit spaces and deliver precise passes can significantly influence Derby’s attacking dynamics. His partnership with Joe Ward, known for agility and crossing ability, could be pivotal in unlocking West Bromwich’s defence.

Defensively, the experience of Craig Forsyth and Danny Batth will be crucial. Forsyth’s leadership and Batth’s aerial strength are expected to fortify Derby’s backline against West Bromwich’s offensive threats. In goal, Jacob Widell Zetterström’s shot-stopping capabilities and command of the penalty area will be vital in maintaining a solid defensive record. Patrick Agyemang, leading the attack, will look to capitalise on any defensive lapses with his pace and sharp finishing.

Expected line-up for Derby:

• Goalkeeper: Jacob Widell Zetterström
• Defence: Sondre Langås, Craig Forsyth, Danny Batth
• Midfield: David Ozoh, Liam Thompson, Bobby Clark, Corey Blackett-Taylor, Ben Brereton Díaz, Joe Ward
• Forward: Patrick Agyemang

Derby Tactics and Formation

Derby Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: Expected 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Patrick Agyemang
• Midfield Pivot: David Ozoh and Liam Thompson
• Defensive Strength: Recent clean sheet record is inconsistent
• Notable Strategy: Focus on counter-attacking play and compact defence.

Derby are likely to continue with a 4-2-3-1 formation under John Eustace, which offers a balanced approach between defence and attack. The midfield pivot of David Ozoh and Liam Thompson is crucial for breaking up opposition play and initiating counter-attacks, while Ben Brereton Díaz provides the creative spark in the advanced midfield role.

Defensively, Derby have struggled for consistency, with clean sheets being a rarity. The backline comprising Joe Ward, Sondre Langås, Matt Clarke, and Craig Forsyth needs to tighten up, especially against a West Bromwich side known for their attacking prowess.

Offensively, the team relies on Patrick Agyemang to spearhead quick transitions. The wingers, Bobby Clark and Corey Blackett-Taylor, are vital in stretching play and providing width, which could be pivotal in exploiting any defensive lapses from West Bromwich.

West Bromwich Analysis & Past Performance

West Bromwich’s recent form has been inconsistent, with the team struggling to find momentum. Over the last five matches, they have managed just one win and suffered four defeats, scoring a total of five goals while conceding twelve. Their recent 0-5 defeat to Norwich at home highlights significant defensive vulnerabilities.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
West Bromwich	Norwich	0 – 5 (Loss)	Championship	20 Jan 2026
West Bromwich	Middlesbrough	2 – 3 (Loss)	Championship	16 Jan 2026
Swansea	West Bromwich	N/A	FA Cup	11 Jan 2026
Leicester	West Bromwich	2 – 1 (Loss)	Championship	5 Jan 2026
Swansea	West Bromwich	1 – 0 (Loss)	Championship	1 Jan 2026

Recent Form:

• LLWLL

The team’s away form has been particularly concerning, with no wins in their last five away matches, resulting in a current away form rating of 0. With an average of 1.00 goals scored and 2.40 goals conceded per game in their last five away fixtures, defensive frailties are apparent. They have failed to keep a clean sheet during this period, underscoring their defensive struggles. Sitting 19th in the league with 31 points, improvement is essential to avoid relegation threats.

West Bromwich Suspensions & Injuries

West Bromwich will travel to Derby with several key players sidelined due to injuries. Alex Williams, suffering from a broken ankle, and Eseosa Sule, dealing with a thigh injury, are both expected to return in early February. Tammer Bany, with a muscle injury, shares a similar recovery timeline. Additionally, Ousmane Diakite is unavailable due to personal reasons, with his return still uncertain. These absences could significantly impact West Bromwich’s midfield and attacking options, potentially limiting their creativity and depth.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Alex Williams	Broken ankle	Early February 2026
Eseosa Sule	Thigh injury	Early February 2026
Tammer Bany	Muscle injury	Early February 2026
Ousmane Diakite	Personal reasons	Doubtful

The absence of these players means coach Eric Ramsay may need to rely on less experienced squad members or adjust his tactical plans. The likes of Josh Maja and Callum Styles, who have been part of the recent line-up, may be called upon to fill the void left by these injuries. The versatility of Krystian Bielik could also prove pivotal, offering defensive and midfield cover as needed.

Tactically, these injuries might prompt West Bromwich to adopt a more conservative approach, focusing on defensive solidity while capitalising on counter-attacking opportunities. The betting markets may view this as a factor in lowering West Bromwich’s chances of securing a win, given the reduced squad depth and potential lack of attacking flair.

West Bromwich Key Players

Aune Selland Heggeboe stands out as West Bromwich’s top scorer, having netted eight goals this season. His consistent ability to find the back of the net makes him pivotal in their attacking strategy. Playing as a forward, Heggeboe’s clinical finishing and positional sense are crucial for capitalising on chances created by the midfield. His partnership with Josh Maja, expected to lead the attack, is anticipated to be a key component of West Bromwich’s offensive tactics.

In midfield, the likes of Callum Styles and Krystian Bielik are invaluable for their roles in both defence and attack. Styles, with his vision and ball distribution, acts as the playmaker, while Bielik’s physical presence provides stability. Their ability to control the game from midfield could dictate the tempo and influence West Bromwich’s tactical approach.

Expected line-up for West Bromwich:

• Goalkeeper: Josh Griffiths
• Defenders: Mikey Johnston, Nathaniel Phillips, Chris Mepham, Charlie Taylor, Samuel Iling
• Midfielders: Isaac Price, Callum Styles, Krystian Bielik, Karlan Grant
• Forward: Josh Maja

West Bromwich Tactics and Formation

West Bromwich Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Karlan Grant
• Midfield Pivot: Krystian Bielik and Josh Maja
• Defensive Challenges: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Focus on possession and wing play

West Bromwich’s 4-2-3-1 formation aims to control the game through midfield dominance. Krystian Bielik and Josh Maja form the core of the midfield, tasked with breaking up opposition play and initiating attacks. This setup helps maintain possession, though it has been susceptible to quick counter-attacks.

In the attacking third, Karlan Grant leads the line, supported by the creative talents of Callum Styles and Mikey Johnston on the flanks. This trio is crucial for converting possession into scoring opportunities, though consistency in front of goal has been an issue, as evidenced by the recent 0-5 defeat to Norwich.

Defensively, West Bromwich have struggled, failing to keep clean sheets in their last five matches. The backline, including Chris Mepham and Nathaniel Phillips, must tighten up to reduce the average of 2.40 goals conceded per game. The team also relies on full-backs like Charlie Taylor to contribute both defensively and offensively.

Derby vs West Bromwich Head-to-Head Record

In their head-to-head record, Derby have the upper hand with 13 wins compared to West Bromwich’s six, and there have been five draws. The last encounter saw Derby edge out West Bromwich 1-0 away in the Championship, showcasing their recent dominance.

The last time these two met at Pride Park, Derby emerged victorious with a 2-1 win in the Championship on Boxing Day 2024. Derby have been particularly strong at home, often making it tough for West Bromwich to take points.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
West Bromwich Albion	Derby County	0 – 1	Championship	2025-09-13
West Bromwich Albion	Derby County	1 – 1 (Penalty shoot-out: 2 – 3)	EFL Cup	2025-08-12
West Bromwich Albion	Derby County	1 – 3	Championship	2025-04-21
Derby County	West Bromwich Albion	2 – 1	Championship	2024-12-26
Derby County	West Bromwich Albion	1 – 0	EFL Cup	2022-08-23