SSC Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Saturday, 31 January

On Saturday, 31 January, SSC Napoli will host Fiorentina in a highly anticipated Serie A clash at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. This fixture is more than just another match; it is a significant encounter in the Italian top flight, with both teams eager to secure crucial points. The phrase ‘SSC Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips’ sets the stage for an intriguing battle between two of Italy’s most renowned clubs.

Playing at home, SSC Napoli will look to make the most of their familiar surroundings to gain an advantage over Fiorentina. Meanwhile, Fiorentina will aim to challenge the hosts and disrupt their plans. With both teams having a history of competitive encounters, this match promises an exciting display of football. Fans and bettors alike will be keen to see how these two sides match up in this Serie A showdown.

SSC Napoli vs Fiorentina Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Most goals in the second half	2.1

Given the current form and recent performances, our recommended betting tip is to back SSC Napoli to win. Napoli have shown consistent form, particularly at home, and need this victory to remain in the Champions League qualification race. Fiorentina, despite some recent improvements, have struggled significantly and have slipped back into the relegation zone after their most recent home defeat.

• SSC Napoli have a strong home record, having scored in 73% of their matches this season.
• Fiorentina’s recent loss and position in the relegation zone indicate vulnerability.
• Napoli’s need to bounce back after their last match against Juventus adds extra motivation.

Betting Odds

SSC Napoli are clear favourites in this Serie A clash, with bookmakers offering odds of 1.73 for a home win. Fiorentina, on the other hand, are seen as underdogs with odds of 5.07, making them an intriguing choice for those seeking a potential upset.

Betting Tip	Odds
SSC Napoli to win	1.73
Draw	3.52
Fiorentina to win	5.07

The draw is priced at 3.52, suggesting a competitive match at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium. Punters might also consider exploring the over 2.5 goals market, given both teams’ attacking capabilities.

SSC Napoli Analysis & Past Performance

SSC Napoli’s recent form has been somewhat inconsistent, with only one win in their last five matches across all competitions. They have endured a challenging spell with two losses, including a 2-3 defeat to Chelsea in the Champions League and a 0-3 loss away at Juventus in Serie A.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
SSC Napoli	Chelsea	2 – 3 (Loss)	Champions League	28 Jan 2026
Juventus	SSC Napoli	3 – 0 (Loss)	Serie A	25 Jan 2026
FC Copenhagen	SSC Napoli	1 – 1 (Draw)	Champions League	20 Jan 2026
SSC Napoli	Sassuolo	1 – 0 (Win)	Serie A	17 Jan 2026
SSC Napoli	Parma Calcio 1913	0 – 0 (Draw)	Serie A	14 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
Over the last five fixtures, Napoli have struggled to find the back of the net, averaging just 0.80 goals per game while conceding 1.40 on average. Despite these challenges, they have managed to secure two clean sheets, indicating some defensive resilience.

Home Performance:
SSC Napoli have been more effective at home, maintaining an unbeaten streak in their last five home games, winning three and drawing two. They show a win ratio of 0.60 at home, with a solid defensive record that includes two clean sheets in the same period.

Team Dynamics:

• LLDWD

Rasmus Højlund remains a key figure in attack, leading with six goals this season. The team sits fourth in Serie A with 43 points, reflecting a competitive stance despite recent setbacks. Their ability to balance attack and defence at home makes them formidable, though recent form highlights areas needing improvement.

SSC Napoli Suspensions & Injuries

SSC Napoli’s preparations for the clash against Fiorentina are hampered by several injuries to key players. The absence of Kevin De Bruyne due to a thigh injury is a significant blow, as his creativity and experience are difficult to replace. Additionally, muscle injuries to Amir Rrahmani and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa, both expected to return in early February, limit Napoli’s defensive and midfield depth. Matteo Politano’s thigh injury further depletes options on the wings, potentially affecting Napoli’s attacking versatility.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Kevin De Bruyne	Thigh injury	Early March 2026
Billy Gilmour	Groin injury	Mid February 2026
André-Frank Zambo Anguissa	Muscle injury	Early February 2026
Amir Rrahmani	Muscle injury	Early February 2026
Matteo Politano	Thigh injury	Early February 2026
David Neres Campos	Hamstring injury	Late March 2026
Vanja Milinković-Savić	Thigh injury	Early February 2026

With these absences, coach Antonio Conte may need to rely on the likes of Eljif Elmas and Miguel Gutiérrez to fill the void in midfield roles. The defensive line will likely remain unchanged, with Giovanni Di Lorenzo and Alessandro Buongiorno expected to shoulder significant responsibilities. Rasmus Højlund’s presence up front will be crucial in maintaining Napoli’s offensive threat.

These injuries could have tactical implications, potentially leading to a more conservative approach from SSC Napoli. The lack of depth may force Conte to adjust his usual high-pressing style, focusing instead on maintaining defensive solidity. Betting markets might see these injuries as a leveller, potentially offering Fiorentina a stronger chance to capitalise on Napoli’s weakened squad.

SSC Napoli Key Players

Rasmus Højlund stands out as SSC Napoli’s top scorer this season, having found the net six times. His ability to lead the line with both physicality and finesse makes him a constant threat to opposition defences. Højlund’s knack for positioning himself in goal-scoring opportunities is pivotal for Napoli’s attacking play.

In midfield, Stanislav Lobotka and Scott McTominay are crucial. Lobotka’s vision and passing range enable him to dictate the tempo, while McTominay’s physical presence and ability to break up play add balance to the team. Defensively, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, known for his leadership and defensive acumen, is integral to maintaining solidity at the back. His overlapping runs also provide an additional attacking outlet.

Expected lineup for SSC Napoli

• Goalkeeper: Alex Meret
• Defenders: Juan Jesus, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Alessandro Buongiorno
• Midfielders: Stanislav Lobotka, Scott McTominay, Antonio Vergara, Miguel Gutiérrez, Leonardo Spinazzola, Eljif Elmas
• Forward: Rasmus Højlund

These key players not only define Napoli’s tactical approach but also highlight their strengths in maintaining possession and transitioning swiftly from defence to attack. Their performances are likely to be influential in shaping the outcome of the match against Fiorentina.

SSC Napoli Tactics and Formation

SSC Napoli Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-2-1
• Key Forward: Rasmus Højlund
• Midfield Engine: Stanislav Lobotka and Scott McTominay
• Defensive Setup: Struggled with clean sheets recently, conceding in last three games.
• Notable Strategy: Wing-backs play a critical role in both defence and attack.

Napoli’s 3-4-2-1 formation under Antonio Conte is designed to provide flexibility and fluidity, especially in midfield. Stanislav Lobotka and Scott McTominay form a robust central partnership, tasked with disrupting opposition play and initiating attacks. The inclusion of Leonardo Spinazzola on the left and Giovanni Di Lorenzo on the right as wing-backs offers both width and defensive cover.

Defensively, Napoli have faced challenges, conceding in their last three outings. The back three, comprising Juan Jesus, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, and Alessandro Buongiorno, need to tighten their lines to improve their clean sheet record. The absence of Amir Rrahmani could necessitate tactical adjustments to bolster their defensive resilience.

Offensively, Rasmus Højlund leads the line, supported by the creative prowess of Eljif Elmas and Antonio Vergara. Napoli’s wide play through Spinazzola and Di Lorenzo is crucial in stretching the opposition, creating space for Højlund and the attacking midfielders to exploit.

Fiorentina Analysis & Past Performance

Fiorentina’s recent form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five matches across all competitions. This run includes a 1-3 defeat at home to Como in the Coppa Italia and a 1-2 loss against Cagliari in Serie A. Despite these setbacks, they managed a crucial 2-1 away victory over Bologna, showcasing their potential to perform outside Florence.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Fiorentina	Como	1 – 3 (Loss)	Coppa Italia	27 Jan 2026
Fiorentina	Cagliari	1 – 2 (Loss)	Serie A	24 Jan 2026
Bologna	Fiorentina	1 – 2 (Win)	Serie A	18 Jan 2026
Fiorentina	AC Milan	1 – 1 (Draw)	Serie A	11 Jan 2026
Lazio	Fiorentina	2 – 2 (Draw)	Serie A	7 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
In their last five outings, Fiorentina have recorded an average of 1.40 goals per match while conceding 1.80. Although they have scored in all five matches, defensive frailties are evident as they have failed to keep a clean sheet. Their away form mirrors this inconsistency, with a single victory, one draw, and three losses in their last five away games, reflecting a win ratio of just 20%.

Team Statistics:

• LLWDD

Fiorentina’s defensive lapses have been a significant issue, conceding an average of 1.80 goals per game in recent matches. Their attack is led by Rolando Mandragora, who has been a key player, yet they need more collective contributions to improve their goal-scoring average. Currently positioned 18th in Serie A, Fiorentina must address their defensive weaknesses and aim to convert possession into more effective attacking opportunities to climb up the standings.

Fiorentina Suspensions & Injuries

Fiorentina face several challenges with injuries that will impact their squad depth. Tariq Lamptey is sidelined with a knee injury, and his dynamic presence at right-back will be missed, potentially affecting the team’s ability to exploit the flanks. Fabiano Parisi is also out with a thigh injury and is expected to return in mid-February 2026, which means Fiorentina will have to rely on alternatives in the left-back position.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Tariq Lamptey	Knee injury	Unknown
Fabiano Parisi	Thigh injury	Mid-February 2026

The absence of Abdelhamid Sabiri and Moise Kean further limits Fiorentina’s options in midfield and attack. Sabiri’s creativity and Kean’s goal-scoring ability are significant losses. However, with Nicolò Fagioli and Roberto Piccoli available in the starting lineup, Fiorentina still have the potential to maintain their attacking threat.

Coach Paolo Vanoli may need to adjust his tactical approach, possibly opting for a more conservative setup to cover for these key absentees. This could see Fiorentina focusing on solidifying their defensive structure against Napoli, which might influence their ability to press forward effectively.

These injuries could have implications for betting markets, as Fiorentina’s reduced squad depth might affect their performance against a formidable Napoli side. Bettors may need to consider the impact of these absences when evaluating Fiorentina’s chances in this Serie A clash.

Fiorentina Key Players

Fiorentina’s attacking prowess is spearheaded by Rolando Mandragora, the team’s top scorer with six goals this season. Mandragora’s ability to find the back of the net from midfield is pivotal, offering a dual threat of creativity and finishing. His role as a central midfielder allows him to dictate the tempo and transition play, making him an indispensable asset in Fiorentina’s tactical setup.

The forward line is further bolstered by Manor Solomon and Roberto Piccoli, who provide width and clinical finishing in the final third. Solomon’s pace and dribbling skills can stretch defensive lines, while Piccoli’s presence offers a target for aerial duels and hold-up play. In defence, Robin Gosens and Marin Pongračić are tasked with maintaining a solid backline, with Gosens’ overlapping runs adding an extra dimension to the attacking play.

Expected lineup for Fiorentina:

• Goalkeeper: David de Gea
• Defence: Dodô, Pietro Comuzzo, Robin Gosens, Marin Pongračić
• Midfield: Cher Ndour, Rolando Mandragora, Nicolò Fagioli
• Forward: Manor Solomon, Roberto Piccoli, Albert Guðmundsson

Fiorentina Tactics and Formation

Fiorentina Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-1-2-3
• Key Forward: Roberto Piccoli
• Midfield Anchor: Rolando Mandragora
• Defensive Challenge: Struggled to maintain clean sheets, none in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on midfield control and wide play.

In the upcoming match against SSC Napoli, Fiorentina are expected to deploy a 4-1-2-3 formation under Paolo Vanoli. This setup allows them to utilise the midfield strength of Rolando Mandragora, who is crucial in both defensive coverage and transitioning play. The midfield trio, including Cher Ndour and Nicolò Fagioli, aims to control the tempo and support the attacking front.

Offensively, Fiorentina will rely on Roberto Piccoli at the spearhead of their attack, flanked by Manor Solomon and Albert Guðmundsson. These wide players are expected to stretch the opposition’s defence, providing width and creating crossing opportunities. Given Fiorentina’s recent form, scoring in each of their last five games, they will look to capitalise on Napoli’s defensive lapses.

Defensively, Fiorentina face challenges, having failed to secure a clean sheet in their last five outings. The defensive line, featuring Dodô and Robin Gosens, will need to tighten up to withstand Napoli’s attacking prowess. Marin Pongračić and Pietro Comuzzo must be vigilant in central defence to prevent conceding goals.

SSC Napoli vs Fiorentina H2H Record

SSC Napoli and Fiorentina have faced each other 45 times, with Napoli leading the head-to-head record with 24 wins, compared to Fiorentina’s 10 victories, and 12 matches ending in a draw. The last meeting saw Napoli triumph 3-1 away at Fiorentina in a Serie A clash in September 2025.

When these two met at the Diego Armando Maradona Stadium in March 2025, Napoli secured a 2-1 victory, continuing their strong home form against Fiorentina. Historically, Napoli have been dominant at home, and Fiorentina have struggled to break this pattern.

Home Team	Away Team	Score	Competition	Date
Fiorentina	SSC Napoli	1 – 3	Serie A	2025-09-13
SSC Napoli	Fiorentina	2 – 1	Serie A	2025-03-09
Fiorentina	SSC Napoli	0 – 3	Serie A	2025-01-04
Fiorentina	SSC Napoli	2 – 2	Serie A	2024-05-17
SSC Napoli	Fiorentina	3 – 0	Super Cup	2024-01-18