Gremio vs. Vitoria Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, 28 September 2025

Gremio face Vitoria in what promises to be a pivotal Serie A clash on 28 September 2025. Both teams are fighting for valuable points as the season edges closer to its climax. Gremio stand in 11th place with 29 points, while Vitoria are in a precarious 17th position with 22 points, hovering just above the relegation zone.

Recent form favors Gremio, who have shown resilience with a DDLWD record in their last five matches, compared to Vitoria’s DLWLL. Despite Gremio’s significant injury list, including top scorer Martin Braithwaite and experienced campaigners like Fabian Balbuena and Joao Pedro, their squad depth and previous encounters against Vitoria give them the upper hand.

Betting odds strongly favor Gremio, who are priced at 1.75 for a victory. Vitoria’s disappointing away record and frail defense make Gremio a safer bet. Mané Menezes will look to capitalize on Vitoria’s suspensions and defensive lapses to secure a vital win.

Recommended bet: Home win for Gremio.

Gremio vs Vitoria Prediction & Betting tip

Gremio vs Vitoria Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Home Win for Gremio	1.75

Best Bet Recommendation: Home Win for Gremio

Reasoning:

1. Team Form and Standing: Gremio currently sit in 11th place with 29 points and a recent record of 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss. In contrast, Vitoria are struggling, positioned 17th with just 22 points, including 3 losses in their last 5 outings.
2. Goals and Defense: Gremio have a marginally better offensive and defensive record, averaging 1.00 goals per match and conceding 1.25. Vitoria, on the other hand, score just 0.60 goals per game while conceding 1.5 on average.
3. Head-to-Head Advantage: Gremio have had the upper hand in past encounters against Vitoria, which boosts their confidence going into this match.
4. Injury Impact: Although Gremio face several key injuries, their squad depth and past performance against Vitoria suggest they can still secure a win.
5. Odds and Market Analysis: Betting odds (1.75 for a home win) strongly favor Gremio, reflecting their superior standing and form.

Gremio vs Vitoria Odds

Ahead of the Serie A clash between Gremio and Vitoria, the odds are strongly in favor of a home win for Gremio. This is reflected in the betting markets due to their superior form and standings despite a spate of injuries.

Gremio vs Vitoria Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Gremio	1.75
Draw	3.49
Vitoria	4.63

Gremio, placed 11th in the standings, are more likely to win this encounter with odds at 1.75, while a draw is priced at 3.49. On the other hand, a Vitoria victory, considering their recent poor form and injuries, stands at 4.63. These odds reflect Gremio’s recent resilience, especially against lower-ranked sides.

Gremio Team Analysis

Gremio Recent Performance

Gremio have had a mixed bag of results recently, showcasing a DDLWD record in their last five matches. They secured a critical 3-2 away victory against Internacional but were held to draws by both Botafogo RJ (1-1) and Flamengo (1-1). However, they suffered a surprising 0-1 home defeat to Mirassol and played out a goalless draw against Ceara.

Despite these varied results, Gremio have shown resilience. They average 1.00 goals scored per game while conceding approximately 1.25 goals. Defensively, they’ve only secured one clean sheet in the last five outings, highlighting potential vulnerabilities at the back. Coach Mano Menezes will aim to tighten up these defensive lapses and make the most of their opportunities upfront in their upcoming clash.

Gremio Key Players

Gremio’s key players will play a pivotal role in this match against Vitoria. Despite numerous injuries, they still have a competitive squad. Martin Braithwaite, even though injured, is the club’s top scorer with 6 goals this season. Edenilson and Willian will be crucial in creating and finishing opportunities up front.

The defense will be marshaled by Walter Kannemann and Gustavo Martins, who need to be solid to minimize Vitoria’s attacking threat.

Expected lineup for Gremio:

• Goalkeeper: Tiago Volpi
• Defenders: Marcos Rocha, Gustavo Martins, Walter Kannemann, Marlon
• Midfielders: Dodi, Erick Noriega, Edenilson
• Forwards: Cristian Pavon, Willian, André Henrique

With key players missing, the collective effort of these starters will be vital for Gremio’s success.

Gremio Suspensions & Injuries

Gremio are dealing with a substantial injury list that could impact their performance against Vitoria. Key players such as Martin Braithwaite (Achilles tendon injury), Joao Pedro (shoulder injury), and Mathías Villasanti (cruciate ligament injury) are out for the season.

Additionally, Fabian Balbuena (broken ankle) and Rodrigo Ely (cruciate ligament injury) are sidelined but expected to return in December 2025 and mid-December 2025, respectively.

Other crucial squad members like Miguel Monsalve (dislocated shoulder) and Riquelme Freitas (thigh injury) are expected to return in early October 2025. Joao Lucas (muscle injury) is anticipated to rejoin within 1-2 weeks, while Gustavo Cuellar’s (muscle injury) participation remains doubtful.

These injuries could challenge Mano Menezes’ squad depth and tactics, forcing Gremio to rely heavily on their available players to secure a win.

Gremio Tactics and Formation

Gremio Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: André Henrique
• Midfield Trio: Dodi, Erick Noriega, Edenilson
• Defensive Strength: Despite having only one clean sheet in the last five games, the defense is anchored by experienced players like Walter Kannemann and Gustavo Martins.
• Notable Strategy: Gremio focus on building attacks through their wings, utilizing the pace and creativity of players like Cristian Pavon and Willian. They also tend to dominate the 61-75-minute interval with increased offensive pressure.

Coach Mano Menezes has consistently deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, focusing on a balanced approach with a double pivot in midfield to shield the defense while allowing the attacking trio room to create scoring opportunities. The team will aim to exploit Vitoria’s defensive lapses to secure a much-needed victory.

Vitoria Team Analysis

Vitoria Recent Performance

Vitoria have struggled in their recent outings, amassing a DLWLL record over their last five matches. They managed just one win—a 1-0 triumph against Atletico MG—but succumbed to heavy defeats like the 0-8 thrashing by Flamengo and losses to Fortaleza (0-2) and Fluminense (0-1). They also held Juventude to a 2-2 draw.

Offensively, Vitoria have averaged only 0.60 goals per game while conceding on average 1.5 goals, indicating both attacking inefficiency and defensive vulnerabilities. They have managed just one clean sheet in their last five games. To turn their fortunes around, Vitoria will need to tighten their defense and capitalize on their scoring opportunities in the upcoming match against Gremio.

Vitoria Key Players

Vitoria will depend heavily on key players like Renato Kayzer, who is their top scorer this season with 7 goals. His ability to find the back of the net will be crucial for Vitoria, especially given their struggles in scoring recently.

In midfield, Matheuzinho and Erick will be pivotal in dictating the tempo and creating opportunities. They will need to be sharp to break through Gremio’s defensive lines. At the back, the defensive partnership of Camutanga and Lucas Halter will have their work cut out to ward off Gremio’s attacking threats.

Expected lineup for Vitoria:

• Goalkeeper: Lucas Arcanjo
• Defenders: Raul Cáceres, Camutanga, Lucas Halter, Ramon
• Midfielders: Willian Oliveira, Gabriel Baralhas, Matheuzinho, Erick, Osvaldo Filho
• Forwards: Renato Kayzer

With key suspensions and injuries affecting the squad, the collective performance of these players will be vital.

Vitoria Suspensions & Injuries

Vitoria are grappling with several key suspensions and injuries that could adversely affect their performance against Gremio. Dudu and Pepe are both suspended for one match due to card-related issues, which will significantly weaken their midfield.

In terms of injuries, Kauan (broken ankle) is out until early October, Jamerson (broken ankle) until early November, and Rúben Ramos Ismael (knee surgery) until mid-October. These absences further deplete their options, especially in defense and midfield.

The impact of these suspensions and injuries will undoubtedly test the depth and resilience of Jair Ventura’s squad as they strive to secure crucial points to avoid the relegation zone.

Vitoria Tactics and Formation

Vitoria Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Renato Kayzer
• Midfield Trio: Willian Oliveira, Gabriel Baralhas, Matheuzinho
• Defensive Strength: Limited, with only one clean sheet in the last five games.
• Notable Strategy: Vitoria will likely try to capitalize on their scoring trend during the 46-60 minute interval. However, conceding 1.5 goals on average per game highlights their defensive frailties.

Coach Jair Ventura has stuck to a 4-2-3-1 formation recently, focusing on solidity in midfield with a double pivot and relying on Renato Kayzer’s goal-scoring abilities up front. Given their defensive vulnerabilities and midfield suspensions, Vitoria’s strategy may adapt to a more cautious approach, aiming to exploit any counter-attacking opportunities against Gremio.

Gremio vs Vitoria Head-to-Head Statistics

Gremio and Vitoria have encountered each other multiple times in recent seasons, with Gremio generally having the upper hand. Here’s a look at their last five meetings:

• 27 April 2025: Vitoria 1 – 1 Gremio (Serie A)
• 04 December 2024: Vitoria 1 – 1 Gremio (Serie A)
• 21 July 2024: Gremio 2 – 0 Vitoria (Serie A)
• 03 August 2021: Gremio 1 – 0 Vitoria (Cup)
• 28 July 2021: Vitoria 0 – 3 Gremio (Cup)

Gremio have won three of these encounters, while two ended in draws. Their impressive record against Vitoria, particularly at home, bolsters Gremio’s confidence going into this match.

Past meetings indicate Gremio’s scoring ability and defensive prowess, which could give them a strategic advantage in this upcoming clash.

Odds accurate as of 26/09/2025 15:05, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any {bookmaker}.