Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Sunday, 21 December

Mainz 05 will take on St. Pauli in a Bundesliga clash at the MEWA Arena on Sunday, 21 December. This match promises to be an intriguing encounter, with Mainz 05 hoping to use their home advantage to secure a crucial victory. Meanwhile, St. Pauli, eager to climb up the Bundesliga table, will look to upset Mainz’s plans with their dynamic style of play.

As we preview this Bundesliga fixture, both teams are expected to give their all, with Mainz 05 aiming to make the most of their home support. St. Pauli, on the other hand, will be determined to demonstrate their resilience and tactical intelligence. This match is vital for both sides as they strive to improve their league positions, making it a compelling fixture for betting fans.

Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Under 1.25 goals	4.19

In this battle between the bottom and sixteenth-placed teams, our recommended betting tip is Under 1.25 total goals. This is based on recent performances and the scoring trends of both sides, suggesting a likely low-scoring affair.

• Mainz 05 have seen under 1.25 total goals in four matches this season, indicating a trend towards low-scoring games.
• St. Pauli average just under 1.0 goal per game this season, highlighting a limited attacking threat.
• Both teams have a history of conceding, but their recent form suggests tighter, less eventful matches.

With both teams struggling in attack, this is a strong bet for this match.

Betting Odds

Mainz 05 enter this match at the MEWA Arena as favourites, with the odds reflecting their perceived advantage. However, St. Pauli should not be underestimated, given their ability to spring surprises away from home.

Betting Tip	Odds
Mainz 05 to win	1.94
Draw	3.38
St. Pauli to win	4.04

For those considering a wager, the odds for a draw are attractive, and with both teams capable of scoring, the ‘both teams to score’ market could be worth considering.

Mainz 05 Analysis & Recent Performance

Mainz 05’s recent form has been inconsistent, with just one win in their last five matches across all competitions, including a 2-0 victory over Samsunspor in the Conference League. Their Bundesliga campaign has been underwhelming, as shown by their position at the bottom of the table with only 7 points from 14 games.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Mainz 05	Samsunspor	2 – 0 (Win)	Conference League	18 Dec 2025
Bayern Munich	Mainz 05	2 – 2 (Draw)	Bundesliga	14 Dec 2025
Lech Poznan	Mainz 05	1 – 1 (Draw)	Conference League	11 Dec 2025
Mainz 05	Borussia Mönchengladbach	0 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	5 Dec 2025
Freiburg	Mainz 05	4 – 0 (Loss)	Bundesliga	30 Nov 2025

Recent Form:
In their last five games, Mainz 05 have averaged 1.00 goal scored per game while conceding 1.60, highlighting a vulnerable defence. They have managed just one clean sheet in this period, underlining their defensive issues. At home, there has been a slight improvement, with two draws and one loss in their last three matches, suggesting some resilience in front of their supporters.

Their attack, led by Nadiem Amiri with 3 goals, has struggled for consistency, reflected in their low scoring average. Their inability to convert possession into goals was evident in their recent 0-1 defeat to Borussia Mönchengladbach, where they failed to score despite a reasonable share of possession.

• WDDLL

Mainz 05 Suspensions & Injuries

Mainz 05 are dealing with several injuries ahead of their clash with St. Pauli. The absence of Anthony Caci due to a tendon injury and Robin Zentner, sidelined with a groin problem until late December, could significantly affect the team’s defensive solidity. Zentner’s absence, in particular, puts pressure on Daniel Batz, who will step in as goalkeeper. His performance will be crucial in maintaining defensive standards.

Phillipp Mwene is also out with a groin injury until early January, which may force Mainz 05 to rely more on Danny da Costa and Nikolas Veratschnig to cover the full-back roles. Coach Urs Fischer’s tactical flexibility will be tested, possibly requiring a change in formation or a more conservative approach to compensate for these losses.

Maxim Leitsch’s thigh injury further reduces defensive depth. The coaching staff must decide whether to adjust their usual 5-4-1 formation or give opportunities to less experienced players.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Maxim Dal	Cruciate ligament injury	Mid January 2026
Anthony Caci	Tendon injury	Mid January 2026
Robin Zentner	Groin injury	Late December 2025
Phillipp Mwene	Groin injury	Early January 2026
Maxim Leitsch	Thigh injury	Early January 2026
Sota Kawasaki	Hip injury	Mid January 2026

Mainz 05 Key Players

Nadiem Amiri stands out as Mainz 05’s leading goal scorer, having netted 3 goals this season. His ability to find space and exploit defensive weaknesses makes him a vital asset in attack. Amiri’s role is crucial in orchestrating the team’s forward play, often linking up with Benedict Hollerbach, who is expected to lead the line. Hollerbach’s physical presence and hold-up play will be key in Mainz’s tactical approach, providing a focal point for attacks.

Jae-Sung Lee, operating in midfield, brings creativity and vision, often dictating the tempo with his passing range. Defensively, Stefan Bell provides leadership and stability at the back, ensuring the team remains organised and disciplined. His experience will be essential in marshalling the defence against St. Pauli’s attacking threats.

• Goalkeeper: Daniel Batz
• Defence: Stefan Bell, Kacper Potulski, Sota Kawasaki, Danny da Costa, Nikolas Veratschnig
• Midfield: William Boeving, Lennard Maloney, Kaishu Sano, Jae-Sung Lee
• Forward: Benedict Hollerbach

Expected lineup for Mainz 05

Mainz 05 Tactics and Formation

Mainz 05 Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 5-4-1
• Key Forward: Benedict Hollerbach
• Midfield Engine: Jae-Sung Lee and Kaishu Sano
• Defensive Structure: Struggling for clean sheets with none in the last five home games.
• Notable Strategy: Strong emphasis on defensive solidity and counter-attacking play.

Mainz 05 use a 5-4-1 formation, providing a solid defensive structure. With Stefan Bell and Kacper Potulski as the central defensive pairing, the team looks to absorb pressure and strike on the counter. The defensive line is supported by wing-backs Danny da Costa and Nikolas Veratschnig, who offer width and contribute at both ends of the pitch.

In midfield, Jae-Sung Lee and Kaishu Sano are central to transitioning play from defence to attack. Their responsibilities include breaking up opposition moves and supporting forward runs. Quick transitions are vital, especially given Mainz’s recent difficulties in keeping clean sheets.

Up front, Benedict Hollerbach is the focal point of Mainz’s attack. His movement and positioning will be crucial in exploiting any gaps left by St. Pauli. Despite recent defensive struggles, Mainz’s strategy is built around a structured defence and opportunistic counter-attacks, aiming to catch opponents off guard.

St. Pauli Analysis & Recent Performance

St. Pauli’s recent form has been mixed, showing both promise and areas for improvement. In their last five matches, they have recorded two wins, one draw, and two defeats. This run includes a crucial 2-1 home victory against FC Heidenheim, which provided a much-needed boost in confidence.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
St. Pauli	FC Heidenheim	2 – 1 (Win)	Bundesliga	13 Dec 2025
FC Cologne	St. Pauli	1 – 1 (Draw)	Bundesliga	6 Dec 2025
Borussia Mönchengladbach	St. Pauli	1 – 2 (Win)	DFB-Pokal	2 Dec 2025
Bayern Munich	St. Pauli	3 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	29 Nov 2025
St. Pauli	Union Berlin	0 – 1 (Loss)	Bundesliga	23 Nov 2025

Recent Form:
St. Pauli’s attack has been relatively productive, averaging 1.20 goals per game over their last five league matches. However, defensive lapses have been a concern, with an average of 1.40 goals conceded per match and no clean sheets in this period. Their away form has been poor, with just one win in their last five away games and a worrying 20% win rate.

In terms of team dynamics, St. Pauli’s inability to maintain defensive solidity has hindered their league progress, currently sitting 16th with 11 points. Andreas Hountondji remains a key figure in attack, leading the scoring charts with four goals this season. Despite their struggles, St. Pauli have scored in four of their last five matches, indicating attacking potential that could prove vital in upcoming fixtures.

• WDWLL

St. Pauli Suspensions & Injuries

St. Pauli will be without Eric Smith due to a red card suspension, forcing a reshuffle in defence. His absence is significant, as Smith has been a key figure at the back this season. Adam Dzwigala is expected to step in, having shown his capabilities previously, but the defensive unit may be tested against Mainz 05’s attacking threats.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Eric Smith	Red card	1	Unknown

Injuries are also a concern for St. Pauli, with David Nemeth sidelined by a tendon injury and not expected back until late December. This limits Alexander Blessin’s options in central defence, though Hauke Wahl and Karol Mets are both fit and provide experience. Ricky-Jade Jones is out with a hamstring injury until mid-January, further reducing attacking depth.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
David Nemeth	Tendon injury	Late December 2025
Ricky-Jade Jones	Hamstring injury	Mid January 2026

These absences could force St. Pauli into a more cautious tactical approach, focusing on midfield solidity to compensate for defensive vulnerabilities. Bettors should consider these factors, as a depleted squad could affect St. Pauli’s ability to maintain defensive stability against Mainz 05.

St. Pauli Key Players

St. Pauli’s attacking threat is led by Andreas Hountondji, their top scorer with 4 goals this season. His finishing and movement in the box will be crucial for breaking down Mainz 05’s defence. Hountondji’s ability to get into dangerous positions makes him a constant menace in the penalty area.

In midfield, Jackson Irvine stands out for his dynamic playmaking. His vision and passing will be vital in linking defence and attack, creating opportunities for forwards such as Martijn Kaars and Mathias Pereira Lage. Defensively, Hauke Wahl and Adam Dzwigala form a solid centre-back partnership, which will be key to maintaining St. Pauli’s defensive organisation against Mainz’s attacks.

Expected lineup for St. Pauli:

• Goalkeeper: Nikola Vasilj
• Defenders: Hauke Wahl, Adam Dzwigala, Karol Mets
• Midfielders: Arkadiusz Pyrka, Joel Chima Fujita, James Sands, Jackson Irvine, Louis Oppie
• Forwards: Martijn Kaars, Mathias Pereira Lage

The influence of these players is significant, with Irvine’s midfield control likely to dictate the game’s tempo. Meanwhile, Wahl and Dzwigala’s defensive partnership could be vital in securing a positive result. St. Pauli’s strength lies in their balanced approach, combining a solid defence with opportunistic attacking play.

St. Pauli Tactics and Formation

St. Pauli Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-5-2
• Key Forward: Mathias Pereira Lage
• Midfield Engine: James Sands and Jackson Irvine
• Defensive Challenge: No clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on midfield control and wing-back involvement.

St. Pauli’s 3-5-2 formation relies on a strong midfield to control the tempo and dictate play. James Sands and Jackson Irvine operate centrally, providing both defensive cover and attacking support. Wing-backs Arkadiusz Pyrka and Louis Oppie are crucial for providing width and stretching the opposition.

Defensively, the back three of Hauke Wahl, Adam Dzwigala, and Karol Mets face the challenge of keeping things tight, having failed to keep a clean sheet recently. Nikola Vasilj in goal will need to be alert, given the team’s vulnerability under pressure.

In attack, St. Pauli look to the creativity and finishing of Mathias Pereira Lage and Martijn Kaars. The team often seeks quick transitions and to exploit spaces left by opponents, though their lack of clean sheets highlights defensive weaknesses that Mainz 05 could exploit.

Mainz 05 vs St. Pauli Head-to-Head Record

Mainz 05 and St. Pauli have met 14 times, with Mainz holding the advantage with 6 wins to St. Pauli’s 2, and 6 draws. In their most recent meeting, Mainz claimed a 2-0 home victory in the Bundesliga earlier this year.

The last time Mainz hosted St. Pauli at the MEWA Arena, they also won 2-0, underlining their strong home record against these opponents. Historically, Mainz have been the more dominant side in this fixture, especially at home.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	League	Date
Mainz 05	St. Pauli	2 – 0	Bundesliga	2025-02-22
St. Pauli	Mainz 05	0 – 3	Bundesliga	2024-10-05
Mainz 05	St. Pauli	2 – 1	Bundesliga	2011-05-14
St. Pauli	Mainz 05	2 – 4	Bundesliga	2010-12-18
St. Pauli	Mainz 05	1 – 1	Friendly Match	2009-07-15