Sport Recife vs. Sao Paulo Prediction, Match Preview, and Betting Tips, 16 August 2025

As Sport Recife hosts Sao Paulo on 16 August 2025, the stakes couldn’t be higher for both sides. Sport Recife, languishing at the bottom of the Serie A standings with just 9 points, desperately seeks a win to spark a turnaround. Meanwhile, Sao Paulo, holding 7th place with 28 points, aims to bolster their campaign for a top-four finish.

Sport Recife’s recent 1-0 victory over Grêmio offers a glimmer of hope but reflects inconsistent form focusing on defensive solidity. Sao Paulo, favorites according to bookmakers with odds at 2.63 for an away win, bring momentum from a 2-0 win against Vitoria.

Key players like Chrystian Barletta for Sport Recife and Andre for Sao Paulo will be crucial, especially given Sao Paulo’s tendency to concede late goals. With both teams missing key players due to injury, strategy and depth will be tested.

Expect Sao Paulo to capitalize on Sport Recife’s vulnerabilities. Our match prediction leans towards an away win, bolstered by their robust recent form. Considering betting tips, Sao Paulo’s superior standings and form make them favored to win this fixture.

Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo Prediction & Betting Tip

For the upcoming match between Sport Recife and Sao Paulo, our recommended betting tip is "Sao Paulo to win." Here’s why this prediction stands out:

• Recent Form: Sao Paulo comes into this match with strong recent form, recording key victories like their recent 2-0 win over Vitoria.
• Standing Disparity: Sao Paulo holds a significant advantage in the league standings, sitting in 7th place compared to Sport Recife’s bottom position.
• Head-to-Head Record: Historical matches show Sao Paulo often getting the better of Sport Recife, further boosting confidence in their chances.

Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo Prediction
Betting tip	Odds
Sao Paulo to win	2.63

Sport Recife’s inability to secure a win in their last six matches only strengthens this tip. Meanwhile, Sao Paulo is the bookmaker’s favorite, armed with a more consistent and effective strategy. So, if you’re looking to place a bet, backing Sao Paulo seems to be the prudent choice given the statistics and current form.

Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo Odds

When it comes to the odds for Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo, the bookmakers clearly favor the away team. Sao Paulo, currently sitting in 7th place, are equipped with stronger form and a more resilient squad. The odds reflect this assessment, making Sao Paulo the more likely winner in this clash.

Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo Betting Odds
Bet	Odds
Sport Recife to win	2.86
Draw	2.93
Sao Paulo to win	2.63

Given these odds, betting on Sao Paulo seems a logical choice. The team has demonstrated better form and effectiveness in recent matches. Even though playing away, their consistent performance and tactical edge give them an upper hand in this fixture.

Keep these odds in mind while placing your bets, and consider the historical outcomes and current form to make an informed decision.

Sport Recife Team Analysis

Sport Recife Recent Performance

Sport Recife’s recent form can be described as mixed, with their last five games resulting in two draws, two losses, and a solitary win. Their most recent game saw them triumph 1-0 over Grêmio, providing a much-needed confidence boost.

Despite their bottom-of-the-table position, Sport Recife managed to keep two clean sheets in their last five matches. They have been averaging 1.00 goal per game in this period, a decent figure considering their struggles.

Last 5 Matches
Gremio – Sport Recife	0-1
Sport Recife – Bahia	0-0
Sport Recife – Santos FC	2-2
Vitoria – Sport Recife	2-2
Sport Recife – Botafogo RJ	0-1

Coach Daniel Paulista will urge his squad for more consistency, especially given the upcoming challenge against a higher-ranked Sao Paulo. This season, Chrystian Barletta remains their top scorer with just 2 goals, signaling room for improvement in finishing and attacking depth.

Sport Recife Key Players

Sport Recife will depend heavily on their top scorer, Chrystian Barletta, who has netted 2 goals this season. His presence up front will be crucial as the team looks to improve their attacking output. Alongside him, Matheusinho and Derik Lacerda are expected to form the offensive trio that will try to penetrate Sao Paulo’s defense.

In midfield, Lucas Lima’s playmaking ability will be vital for creating chances and maintaining possession. Defensively, the reliable Gabriel in goal, supported by the likes of Rafael Thyere and Ramon Menezes, will need to be at their best to handle Sao Paulo’s attacking threats.

Expected lineup for Sport Recife:

• Goalkeeper: Gabriel
• Defenders: Matheus Alexandre, Rafael Thyere, Ramon Menezes, Igor Carius
• Midfielders: Lucas Lima, Christian Rivera, Ze Lucas
• Forwards: Léo Pereira, Derik Lacerda, Matheusinho

Key individual battles to watch include Chrystian Barletta versus Sao Paulo’s defenders, and Lucas Lima’s clash with Sao Paulo’s midfield, which can dictate the flow of the game.

Sport Recife Suspensions & Injuries

Sport Recife has a couple of key players sidelined due to injuries. Diogo Hereda is out with a groin injury and is expected to be back by early November 2025. Meanwhile, Sérgio Oliveira is nursing an ankle injury, with a potential return by late August 2025.

The absence of Hereda might weaken their defense, putting additional pressure on the remaining defenders to step up against Sao Paulo. Oliveira’s injury leaves a gap in midfield, where his experience and playmaking abilities will be sorely missed.

These absences could compromise Sport Recife’s efforts to turn their season around, especially when facing a formidable side like Sao Paulo that is known for their tactical prowess and attacking capabilities.

Sport Recife Tactics and Formation

Sport Recife Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-3-3
• Key Forward: Chrystian Barletta, who has scored 2 goals this season.
• Midfield Trio: Lucas Lima, Christian Rivera, Ze Lucas
• Defensive Strength: Sport Recife have managed two clean sheets in their last five games, showing their ability to hold firm at the back.
• Notable Strategy: The team often focuses on a balanced approach, aiming to sustain possession through midfield and create scoring opportunities from the flanks.

Sport Recife are likely to stick with their 4-3-3 formation, prioritizing a solid defensive setup while looking to strike on the counter. With their current form showing a mix of results, they will need to be tactically astute to counter Sao Paulo’s threat and exploit any weaknesses in their defense. Effective utilization of wingers and set-pieces could be critical to their success in this fixture.

Sao Paulo Team Analysis

Sao Paulo Recent Performance

Sao Paulo have been in solid form, winning three, drawing one, and losing one in their last five matches. Their most recent result was a 0-0 draw against Atletico Nacional in the Copa Libertadores Final Stage, indicating their defensive prowess on bigger stages.

Sao Paulo has kept two clean sheets in their last five games, highlighting a dependable defense. Their average goals scored per game stands at 1.20, showcasing their balanced attack.

Last 5 Matches
Atletico Nacional – Sao Paulo	0-0
Sao Paulo – Vitoria	2-0
Athletico Paranaense – Sao Paulo	1-0 (Penalties: 3-0)
Internacional – Sao Paulo	1-2
Sao Paulo – Athletico Paranaense	2-1

Coach Hernán Crespo will look to build on their recent results to maintain their push for a top-four finish. Their consistency and balanced gameplay make them favorites in this matchup against Sport Recife.

Sao Paulo Key Players

Sao Paulo will be banking on their top scorer, Andre, who has netted 5 goals this season. His finishing ability makes him a constant threat in the attacking third and a focal point in Sao Paulo’s offensive play.

In midfield, Damian Bobadilla controls the tempo and transitions from defense to attack, making him another crucial player for the team. Defensively, Nahuel Ferraresi and Alan Franco form a robust partnership at the back, crucial for maintaining their solid defensive record.

Expected lineup for Sao Paulo:

• Goalkeeper: Rafael
• Defenders: Nahuel Ferraresi, Sabino, Alan Franco
• Midfielders: Cedric Soares, Alisson, Damian Bobadilla, Marcos Antonio, Enzo Díaz
• Forwards: Luciano, Andre

Key individual battles include Andre vs Sport Recife’s defenders and Damian Bobadilla’s midfield duel with Lucas Lima. These skirmishes will likely decide the outcome of this encounter.

Sao Paulo Suspensions & Injuries

Sao Paulo will unfortunately be missing several key players due to injuries. Luiz Gustavo is out with an illness but is expected to return by late August 2025. Jonathan Calleri and Ryan Francisco are both sidelined with severe cruciate ligament injuries, keeping them out of action for the foreseeable future. Additionally, Oscar is dealing with a back injury with a potential early September return, while Wendell and Robert Arboleda are both nursing thigh injuries, also expected back by early September 2025.

The absence of these players, particularly Calleri and Francisco, could affect the team’s depth and attacking options. Still, coach Hernán Crespo will rely on his squad’s resilience and tactical discipline to navigate through this period.

Sao Paulo Tactics and Formation

Sao Paulo Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 3-4-1-2
• Key Forward: Andre, with 5 goals this season, orchestrates their attacking plays.
• Midfield Quartet: Cedric Soares, Alisson, Damian Bobadilla, Marcos Antonio
• Defensive Strength: Nahuel Ferraresi, Sabino, Alan Franco anchoring the defense, with two clean sheets in their last five matches.

Sao Paulo employs a 3-4-1-2 formation, focusing on a robust defense combined with creative midfield play. Andre and Luciano lead the attack, with Damian Bobadilla playing a pivotal role in linking defense and offense. The team’s defensive line has demonstrated resilience, crucial for maintaining clean sheets. One notable strategy is their strong performance in the final 15 minutes of matches, often capitalizing on their opponents’ fatigue.

Given their current form and depth, Sao Paulo will aim to control the game’s tempo and exploit spaces left by Sport Recife’s defense.

Sport Recife vs Sao Paulo Head-to-Head Statistics

Historically, matches between Sport Recife and Sao Paulo have been relatively low-scoring affairs. In the last five meetings, Sao Paulo has had the upper hand with three wins, one draw, and one loss:

• March 29, 2025: Sao Paulo 0-0 Sport Recife (Serie A)
• June 01, 2023: Sao Paulo 1-3 Sport Recife (Cup, 5-3 penalties)
• May 17, 2023: Sport Recife 0-2 Sao Paulo (Cup)
• November 28, 2021: Sao Paulo 2-0 Sport Recife (Serie A)
• August 22, 2021: Sport Recife 0-1 Sao Paulo (Serie A)

These results suggest a strong defensive record for Sao Paulo against Sport Recife, with two clean sheets in their last three Serie A encounters. Less than 2.5 goals have been scored in 89% of these meetings, reaffirming the pattern of tightly contested matches. With Sao Paulo looking to consolidate their top-half position and Sport Recife fighting to avoid relegation, this fixture promises to be another intriguing chapter in their rivalry.

Odds accurate as of 14.08.2025 22:31, and are subject to change. Please always check the odds before placing your bets with any bookmaker.