Lille vs Brest Prediction, Match Preview and Betting Tips, Saturday, 14 February

Lille will face Brest in a crucial Ligue 1 encounter at the Decathlon Arena–Stade Pierre-Mauroy on Saturday, 14 February. This match is pivotal for both teams as they aim to climb the league standings. Lille, playing at home, will look to capitalise on their familiar surroundings to secure vital points. Meanwhile, Brest will be eager to challenge their hosts and improve their position in the league.

The Decathlon Arena–Stade Pierre-Mauroy provides a formidable backdrop for this Ligue 1 clash. Lille’s home advantage could play a significant role, but Brest’s determination to upset the odds cannot be underestimated. As both teams vie for a strong finish in the league, this fixture promises to be a compelling contest. These betting tips will break down the potential outcomes and provide insights into what could be a tightly contested match.

Lille vs Brest Prediction & Betting Tip

Betting Tip	Odds
Draw	3.8

Given the recent form and league standings, a full-time draw appears to be a solid betting tip for this matchup. Although Lille are favourites and possess a strong home record, their recent performances have been inconsistent, making a draw a plausible outcome.

• Lille are winless in their last five matches, showing inconsistency.
• Brest, despite their struggles, are only five points from the top six and can be tough to beat.
• The last home game between these teams ended in a decisive win for Lille, but current form suggests a tighter contest.

Betting Odds

Lille enter this clash as favourites with odds of 1.74, reflecting their strong home advantage at the Decathlon Arena–Stade Pierre-Mauroy. Brest, on the other hand, are seen as underdogs with odds of 4.48, but they could surprise given their recent form.

Betting Tip	Odds
Lille to win	1.74
Draw	3.8
Brest to win	4.48

The draw is priced at 3.8, suggesting bookmakers anticipate a competitive match. For those seeking value, exploring the over 2.5 goals market might be worthwhile, considering both teams’ attacking capabilities.

Lille Analysis & Past Performance

Lille’s recent form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five matches. Their latest encounter resulted in a 0-0 draw against Metz, highlighting their struggle to find the net despite commanding 60% possession. This draw follows a narrow 1-0 defeat to Lyon, illustrating Lille’s difficulty in converting control into goals.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Metz	Lille	0 – 0 (Draw)	Ligue 1	6 Feb 2026
Lyon	Lille	1 – 0 (Loss)	Ligue 1	1 Feb 2026
Lille	Freiburg	1 – 0 (Win)	Europa League	29 Jan 2026
Lille	Strasbourg	1 – 4 (Loss)	Ligue 1	25 Jan 2026
Celta Vigo	Lille	2 – 1 (Loss)	Europa League	22 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
Over their last five games, Lille have averaged just 0.60 goals per match while conceding 1.40 on average, with only one clean sheet. Offensively, their top scorer, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, has been limited to five goals this season, indicating a need for more support up front. Defensively, they have shown vulnerabilities, conceding seven goals across these matches.

At home, Lille’s form improves slightly with a win ratio of 0.40 over their last five home fixtures. Despite their struggles, they hold a mid-to-upper league position, currently fifth with 33 points. Their home performance has been notably stronger, with six wins from ten home matches this season, reflecting a win ratio of 0.60. Lille will need to leverage their home advantage to improve their overall standing.

• DLWLL

Lille Suspensions & Injuries

Lille face a challenging task with several key absentees due to injuries and suspensions. Nathan Ngoy’s suspension for yellow card accumulation will necessitate a defensive reshuffle, likely pushing Tiago Santos into a more central role alongside Alexsandro Ribeiro. The absence of Aïssa Mandi, also suspended, further complicates Lille’s defensive setup, requiring tactical adjustments from coach Bruno Génésio to maintain stability at the back.

Player	Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Nathan Ngoy	Yellow cards	1	Unknown
Aïssa Mandi	Yellow cards	1	Unknown

Injuries to players such as Ousmane Touré and Hamza Igamane have left Lille’s depth significantly depleted, especially in midfield. Nabil Bentaleb’s absence due to a dislocated shoulder is a particular blow, as his creative influence will be sorely missed until his expected return in early March. Meanwhile, Thomas Meunier and Osame Sahraoui are both sidelined but are anticipated to return by late February, which could bolster the squad in the near future.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Ousmane Touré	Cruciate ligament injury	Late April 2026
Hamza Igamane	Cruciate ligament injury	Out for season
Nabil Bentaleb	Dislocated shoulder	Early March 2026
Osame Sahraoui	Groin injury	Late February 2026
Thomas Meunier	Hamstring injury	Late February 2026
Ethan Mbappé	Hamstring injury	Early April 2026

With these crucial players unavailable, Lille may need to rely on their bench strength, potentially giving younger talents a chance to step up. This situation could also necessitate a shift in formation, perhaps opting for a more conservative approach to mitigate defensive vulnerabilities. These absences could influence betting markets, as Lille’s tactical flexibility and depth will be tested against Brest.

Lille Key Players

Lille’s top scorer, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, with five goals this season, is pivotal in orchestrating their attacking plays. His ability to find space and finish clinically makes him a constant threat to Brest’s defence. Positioned in midfield, Haraldsson’s vision and creativity are key to Lille’s tactical approach, often linking the midfield with veteran striker Olivier Giroud, whose experience and aerial prowess can unsettle any defence. Giroud’s presence up front not only provides a target for crosses but also draws defenders, creating space for others.

In midfield, Benjamin André’s role as a playmaker is crucial. His ability to dictate the pace and control the game allows Lille to maintain possession and build attacks methodically. Defensively, Tiago Santos and Alexsandro Ribeiro are vital; their partnership at the back ensures solidity and resilience against Brest’s offensive threats. Santos’s tackling and Ribeiro’s aerial strength are indispensable for Lille’s defensive strategy.

• Goalkeeper: Berke Özer
• Defenders: Nathan Ngoy, Tiago Santos, Alexsandro Ribeiro, Romain Perraud
• Midfielders: Ayyoub Bouaddi, Hákon Arnar Haraldsson, Matias Fernandez-Pardo, Benjamin André, Noah Edjouma
• Forward: Olivier Giroud

Lille Tactics and Formation

Lille Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Olivier Giroud
• Midfield Pivot: Benjamin André and Noah Edjouma
• Defensive Setup: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Dominance in possession and effective use of width.

Lille’s 4-2-3-1 formation is designed to maintain control in midfield and provide a balanced approach between attack and defence. The midfield duo of Benjamin André and Noah Edjouma is crucial in dictating the tempo and breaking up opposition play, allowing Hákon Arnar Haraldsson to exploit spaces as the attacking midfielder.

Defensively, Lille have shown resilience, with two clean sheets in their last five matches. The backline, featuring Nathan Ngoy and Romain Perraud as full-backs, supports both defensive solidity and offensive width. Alexsandro Ribeiro pairs with Tiago Santos centrally, providing a robust defensive partnership.

Offensively, Olivier Giroud remains a focal point, with his aerial prowess and experience. Lille’s strategy includes maintaining possession and utilising the flanks effectively, aiming to create opportunities for Giroud and the attacking midfielders.

Brest Analysis & Past Performance

Brest’s recent form has been mixed, with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five Ligue 1 matches. Notably, they managed a convincing 2-0 victory against Lorient in their latest fixture, highlighted by a solid defensive display and one of their two clean sheets in the last five outings.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	Competition	Date
Brest	Lorient	2 – 0 (Win)	Ligue 1	7 Feb 2026
Nice	Brest	2 – 2 (Draw)	Ligue 1	1 Feb 2026
Brest	Toulouse	0 – 2 (Loss)	Ligue 1	25 Jan 2026
Lyon	Brest	2 – 1 (Loss)	Ligue 1	18 Jan 2026
Brest	Auxerre	2 – 0 (Win)	Ligue 1	4 Jan 2026

Recent Form:
Brest have averaged 1.40 goals scored per game in their last five matches while conceding 1.20 on average. They have demonstrated attacking potential with seven goals scored over this period. However, their defensive vulnerabilities are evident, having conceded six goals in the same span. Away from home, Brest have struggled, winning only once in their last five away fixtures, with a win ratio of just 20%. This indicates a significant drop in performance compared to their home form.

Currently sitting 12th in the Ligue 1 table with 26 points, Brest’s position reflects their inconsistent performances. Romain Del Castillo remains their key attacking threat, having scored seven goals this season. The team’s dynamics show a need for improved defensive solidity, particularly in away games, to climb higher in the league standings.

• WDLLW

Brest Suspensions & Injuries

Brest face a few challenges with key players unavailable due to injuries and suspensions ahead of their clash with Lille. Kamory Doumbia’s suspension for accumulation of yellow cards will force Brest to adjust their midfield setup. His absence could see Joris Chotard taking on a more advanced role, supported by the versatile Lucas Tousart, to maintain the midfield’s balance and creativity.

Player	Reason for Suspension	Matches Remaining	Expected Return
Kamory Doumbia	Accumulation of yellow cards	1	To be determined

Injuries also impact Brest’s preparations, with Mama Baldé sidelined due to a shin injury, Bradley Locko out with a hamstring issue, and Soumaila Coulibaly nursing a thigh injury. These injuries particularly affect Brest’s defensive options, as both Locko and Coulibaly are integral to their backline depth. With these players out, Brest will rely heavily on the current lineup to hold strong against Lille’s attacking prowess.

Player	Injury	Expected Return
Mama Baldé	Shin injury	About 1-2 weeks
Bradley Locko	Hamstring injury	A few weeks
Soumaila Coulibaly	Thigh injury	Late February 2026

The absence of these players might influence Brest’s tactical approach, possibly leading to a more conservative strategy to mitigate defensive vulnerabilities. The betting markets may view this as a factor that could sway the odds in Lille’s favour, given Brest’s reduced squad depth and the tactical adjustments needed to accommodate these absences.

Brest Key Players

Romain Del Castillo stands out as Brest’s top scorer with seven goals this season. His role in midfield is pivotal, as he not only contributes to the scoreline but also orchestrates attacking plays with his vision and technical skills. Del Castillo’s ability to exploit spaces and deliver precise passes makes him a constant threat to opposing defences.

In the forward line, Ludovic Ajorque is expected to lead the attack. Known for his aerial prowess and physical strength, Ajorque provides a focal point for Brest’s offensive manoeuvres. His ability to hold up play and bring teammates into the game will be crucial against Lille’s defence. Additionally, the defensive solidity provided by Brendan Chardonnet and Michel Diaz will be vital in countering Lille’s attacking threats, ensuring a balanced approach between defence and attack.

Expected lineup for Brest:

• Goalkeeper: Grégoire Coudert
• Defence: Kenny Lala, Brendan Chardonnet, Michel Diaz, Daouda Guindo
• Midfield: Hugo Magnetti, Joris Chotard, Romain Del Castillo, Rémy Lascary, Lucas Tousart
• Forward: Ludovic Ajorque

The tactical implications of these key players are significant. Del Castillo’s creativity and Ajorque’s presence in the box could define Brest’s offensive strategy, while the defensive contributions from Chardonnet and Diaz ensure resilience at the back. This combination of attacking flair and defensive stability might be the key to overcoming Lille’s challenge.

Brest Tactics and Formation

Brest Tactical Breakdown:

• Formation: 4-2-3-1
• Key Forward: Ludovic Ajorque
• Midfield Pivot: Hugo Magnetti and Joris Chotard
• Defensive Strength: Two clean sheets in the last five games
• Notable Strategy: Emphasis on defensive solidity and counter-attacking.

Brest’s 4-2-3-1 formation is crafted to ensure defensive solidity while allowing for swift counter-attacks. With Hugo Magnetti and Joris Chotard anchoring the midfield, the team can disrupt opposition play and quickly transition into attack. Romain Del Castillo, as the attacking midfielder, plays a pivotal role in connecting the defence to the forward line.

Defensively, the presence of Kenny Lala and Daouda Guindo as full-backs provides width and support in both defensive and offensive phases. Brendan Chardonnet and Michel Diaz form a solid central defensive partnership, contributing to the team’s ability to keep two clean sheets in their last five matches.

Offensively, Brest rely heavily on the hold-up play of Ludovic Ajorque, supported by wingers Rémy Lascary and Romain Del Castillo. This setup allows them to exploit spaces left by opponents during transitions, particularly effective given their counter-attacking style.

Lille vs Brest Head-to-Head Record

Lille and Brest have faced off 20 times, with Lille winning 10 of those encounters, Brest claiming five victories, and five matches ending in a draw. Their last meeting was a thrilling 3-3 draw at Brest in August 2025, showcasing the competitive nature of their Ligue 1 clashes.

In their most recent Ligue 1 meeting at the Decathlon Arena–Stade Pierre-Mauroy, Lille secured a 3-1 victory in December 2024. This result highlights Lille’s strong home form against Brest, where they’ve managed to keep a solid record.

Home Team	Away Team	Result	League	Date
Brest	Lille	3 – 3	Ligue 1	2025-08-17
Brest	Lille	2 – 0	Ligue 1	2025-05-10
Lille	Brest	3 – 1	Ligue 1	2024-12-06
Brest	Lille	1 – 1	Ligue 1	2024-03-17
Lille	Brest	1 – 0	Ligue 1	2023-10-22