The moment has arrived once again. February 3rd 2019 is Super Bowl 53. This year marks the 53rd Super Bowl, with the AFC Champion New England Patriots heading to Atlanta, Georgia to face the NFC Champion Los Angeles Rams.
Super Bowl 53: New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams
New England made their way to this season's Super Bowl finishing 2nd in the American Football Conference at the end of the regular season. After soundly defeating the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Divisional round, the Patriots outwitted the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game winning in overtime 37-31, booking their ticket for Super Bowl 53.
Meanwhile, the Los Angeles Rams are on their way to the Super Bowl for the fourth time in the team's history. Having finished 2nd in the National Football Conference at the end of the regular season, the Rams were too good for the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Divisional round, before going on to win the NFC Championship in New Orleans 26-23 following overtime.
What You Will Find In Our Super Bowl Betting Guide
Super Bowl Betting: A to Z
Who Will Win The Super Bowl 2019?
Super Bowl Betting Advice
Super Bowl Betting Odds & Markets
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Super Bowl Betting: A to Z
Super Bowl betting is big business. In fact there are few sporting events in the world that attract as much betting interest as the Super Bowl. In this guide we will show you how to bet on the Super Bowl, how to analyse the competing teams, give you our Super Bowl prediction, introduce you to the world of Super Bowl props and even tell you how to bet on Super Bowl commercials.
How much money is bet on the Super Bowl?
Last season was a record year Super Bowl betting in Nevada, with just over $158 million bet on the game between the New England Patriots and Philadelphia Eagles. Quite a sum on its own.
However when you consider that some industry experts estimate that Nevada draws only 2-3% of all Super Bowl betting, then we can see just how popular betting on the great American event is.
History Of Super Bowl Betting Lines
Super Bowl betting began with Super Bowl 1 (of course) where the then NFL Green Bay Packers were 14 point favourites against the then AFL Kansas City Chiefs. As the Super Bowl increased in popularity so did betting on the Super Bowl. Nevertheless, the whole story around Super Bowl Betting remains a mystery with questions like "How do Super Bowl odds work? What's the super bowl spread? What is Super Bowl betting line? How do super bowl betting squares work?" We will try to answer all these. For starters, please click the tab below to see a detailed history of Super Bowl odds.
History Of Super Bowl Odds
Who Will Win Super Bowl 53?
Minutes after the conference championship games were completed and Super Bowl odds were being framed and listed across the betting industry, bettors and pundits everywhere began to breakdown the chances of each team.
New England Patriots vs Los Angeles Rams: Super Bowl 2019 Betting Analysis
Here we offer you our analysis, giving you an insight into how each team, the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles, may perform in Super Bowl 53.
What are the key factors when analysing NFL teams heading into the Super Bowl?
- Multi-Dimensional Teams Are Better Equipped for Diverse Challenges
- Strength of Schedule From the Regular Season Matters
- Defence Still Wins Championships
- Third Down Conversion Percentage
Let’s walk through each category and attempt to find an answer to the question – who will win Super Bowl 2019?
The Rams were ranked equal second in the NFL for yards per play this season, averaging 6.3 yards per play during the regular season. On defence however, the Rams were ranked 25th for yards per play allowed, giving up an average of 5.9 yards per play. The Rams also averaged 32.4 points per game on offence during the regular season, the second highest average across the league, while conceding 23.8 points to opponents, ranking them 19th across the league.
New England meanwhile were ranked equal seventh in the league for yards per play, averaging 5.9 yards per play during the regular season. While being ranked seventh in offensive yards per play, the Patriots were also ranked equal 16th in yards per play allowed, with an average of 5.7 yards. In terms of points allowed per game, New England ranked equal eighth conceding just 21.3 points per game through the regular season, while the offence led by Tom Brady scored 28.6 points per game, ranking the Patriots fourth.
While Ram's offence has been superb throughout the regular season and into the playoffs, New England have clearly the greater balance when we it comes to both sides of the ball.
Regular Season Strength Of Schedule
The Rams had the more difficult schedule of the two teams, with a rating of 0.7, ranking them equal ninth across the league for schedule difficulty. New England meanwhile recorded a -0.1 rating, ranking them equal 20th.
New England have more or less beat up on opponents in a poor division and a less than challenging non-division schedule. While the Rams' strength of schedule is considered by analysts to be more difficult than average, it has been a much more demanding schedule than what the Patriots enjoyed.
Defence Wins Championships
As previously discussed, while the Rams' offence has carried them to the Super Bowl, their defence is vulnerable. The Rams' pass defence conceded an average of 7.1 yards per pass during the regular season ranking them 20th in the league, while their rush defence was ranked 25th in the league giving up 4.8 yards per rush.
The Patriots defence meanwhile was ranked eighth at the completion of the regular season for points conceded per game, they were ranked 25th for rushing yards per attempt at 4.8 yards and ninth for passing yards per attempt at 6.6 yards.
Third Down Conversion
Both offences have the ability to move the ball. The Patriots were ranked ninth during the regular season converting on third down, earning a first down just under 44% of the time. Los Angeles was ranked sixth converting thirds downs just under 45% of the time.
On the defensive side of the ball, New England were ranked 16th in the league for third down percentage allowed, with opponents earning a first down on third down just under 39% of the time. Meanwhile the Rams' defence was ranked eighth, conceding a first down on third down just over 36% of the time.
Los Angeles appears to have the advantage.
Who Will Win The Super Bowl 2019?
The Patriots have once again set themselves to peak at the pointy end of the season. Entering yet another Super Bowl, New England have the opportunity to claim their sixth NFL championship..
While the Rams have performed well during the regular season, they will rely on their offence to outscore the Patriots with the Los Angeles defence vulnerable against a Patriots offence that has shown an ability to set up their passing game with a steady commitment to running the ball early and often.
Super Bowl 53 Prediction: New England Patriots 30, Los Angeles Rams 27
Super Bowl Betting Advice
So now you're wondering, how to bet on the Super Bowl? Our five Super Bowl betting advices are simple:
- Stay away from poor value prop bets
- Bet with value in mind, not fun
- Don't drink and bet in-play
- Follow Super Bowl betting tips
- Take advantage of bookmaker offers
Stay away from poor value prop bets
We will discuss prop bets in more detail shortly. While we recognise that prop bets are a lot of fun and can enhance your enjoyment of Super Bowl Sunday, if you are serious about making money betting on the Super Bowl, prop bets is a terrible idea. This is because most bookmakers do not offer close to fair odds on prop bets making them terrible value.
Bet with value in mind, not fun
Many of you reading this article will be more inclined towards betting for fun on Super Bowl Sunday. And again, that's cool if that's what interests you. But some of you will be keen to make money and if this is your mindset, always bet with value. Keep your bets selective and wager on markets with low bookmaker commission, such as match winner, the betting line and over under point totals. If you do your research and stick to more traditional markets, you'll give yourself a great chance betting on this year's Super Bowl.
Super Bowl's Biggest Upsets
There have been five occasions where a team was a double digit underdog (an underdog of 10 points or greater) and won the Super Bowl. The most famous of these was perhaps the New York Jets in Super Bowl 3, going in as underdogs of 18 points against the then Baltimore Colts. Inspired by Joe Namath's famous guarantee, the Jets would stun the world and defeat the Colts.
In recent years, we saw the New York Giants as 12 point underdogs, defeat the then undefeated New England Patriots, in one of the biggest sporting upsets in modern times.
Don't drink and bet in-play
It's easy to get carried away on Super Bowl Sunday, you're with friends, having a few drinks, placing a few bets, having a few more drinks and then a few more bets, and then a few more drinks. Next thing you know you wake up on Monday morning and you've blown a few hundred pounds on ridiculous in-play bets that seemed like fun at the time, but now leave you full of regret. If you plan to bet in-play on the Super Bowl, either limit yourself to a few modest drinks during the game or leave the drinking until the game has concluded.
Follow Super Bowl betting tips
Some of the best NFL tipsters in the world will be posting their Super Bowl tips in the lead up to the great game. What's even better is that each Super Bowl 53 betting tips is free. No need to pay ridiculous subscription fees for tips that are not profitable. Every Super Bowl tip posted at bettingexpert is free and better than that, you can see exactly how profitable every tipster has been.
So if you're looking for profitable and free Super Bowl betting tips, you can find them on our Super Bowl 53 betting tips page.
We've also investigated scoring trends from every Super Bowl ever played to help support your betting selection.
Take advantage of bookmaker offers
As one of the biggest sporting events in the world, bookmakers love to attract new customers will all types of Super Bowl promotional offers and free bets. These offers can include enhanced odds (price boosts) on various Super Bowl markets as well as risk free bets. To see which Super Bowl offers are available this year, please check the bettingexpert Free Bets page in the lead up to the event.
Where can you bet on the Super Bowl and take advantage of bookmaker offers?
Every bookmaker on the planet will be offering odds on the Super Bowl. For Super Bowl 53 we recommend the following bookmakers. Click the logo to learn about their current bonus offer and current promotions.
Detailed Bookmaker Reviews
To find the best bookmakers for your Super Bowl betting, please refer to our list of detailed bookmaker reviews.
Super Bowl Betting Odds & Markets
If you're wondering how to bet on the Super Bowl, there are a number of ways to place a bet. The biggest bookmakers in the industry are currently offering literally dozens of markets for you to bet on. From the more traditional to the more obscure to the downright crazy (see prop bets), bookmakers across the world have numerous Super Bowl 53 betting markets available for you to bet on.
In this section we will focus on traditional Super Bowl markets:
- Super Bowl Moneylines
- Super Bowl Point Spreads
- Super Bowl Over Under Betting
- Super Bowl MVP Betting
Super Bowl Moneyline Bets
A Super Bowl moneyline bet is the simplest form of Super Bowl bet available. A moneyline bet is essentially a head to head bet on who will win this Super Bowl. All that is required to win a money line bet is to select the team that wins the game (including overtime). That's it.
As an example, let's say we bet £100 on New England to win at odds of 1.76. If New England win the game (including overtime), you would receive a return of £176 for a profit of £76.
Meanwhile if you bet £100 on Los Angeles at odds of 2.18 and they win, you would receive a return of £218, for a profit of £118. As you can see, moneyline betting is about as simple as it gets. .
Super Bowl Point Spread
While moneylines may be the simplest way of betting on the Super Bowl, the point spread is by far the most popular way to bet on the Super Bowl.
How does Super Bowl point spread betting work? Let's look at this year's Super Bowl as an example. Below is the Super Bowl 53 point spread with odds listed at Ladbrokes immediately at the conclusion of the Conference Championship games. We can see that New England are -3 at odds of 1.96, while Atlanta are +3 at odds of 1.87. For the latest Super Bowl Odds, please click the button below.
So what does this all mean? Let's consider each scenario:
If you bet on New England -2.5
- New England wins by 3 or more points - Your bet wins
- New England wins by 2 or fewer or Atlanta wins - Your bet loses
If you bet on Los Angeles +2.5
- Los Angeles wins the game or loses by no more than 2 points - Your bet wins
- Los Angeles loses the game by 3 or more points - Your bet loses
Super Bowl Over Under Betting Line
Super Bowl over under betting is almost as popular as betting on the point spread. How does Super Bowl over under betting work?
It's easy. Let's look at the Over Under line for Super Bowl 53. Above we can see that the Over Under line is 56.5 points.
So what does this mean? It's rather simple. Let's consider both scenarios.
If you bet on Over 56.5 points
- If the game ends with a combined score of 57 points or more - Your bet wins
- If the game ends with a combined score of 56 points or less - Your bet loses
If you bet on Under 56.5 points
- If the game ends with a combined score of 56 points or less - Your bet wins
- If the game ends with a combined score of 57 points or more - Your bet loses
Super Bowl MVP Bets
While you can bet on the NFL MVP during the regular season, the Super Bowl gives bettors the opportunity to bet on who will be the most valuable player for a single game. As a result, Super Bowl MVP betting is incredibly popular.
Below we can see the odds for the MVP of Super Bowl 53, with odds listed at Unibet following the Conference Championship games.
As we can see, the two quarterbacks - Tom Brady and Jared Goff - are the favourites be to named the Most Valuable Player of Super Bowl 53. Quarterbacks have often been named Super Bowl MVP, but in terms of betting value, it's often best to look at other skill position players, in this case, players such as the Rams' Todd Gurley and New England's Julian Edelman.
Super Bowl Prop Bets
Now we come to the subject of Super Bowl props. If you're new to betting on the Super Bowl, you may be wondering – what is a prop bet?
The term 'prop' is an abbreviation of the word 'proposition'. A prop bet is therefore a proposition bet, meaning a bookmaker presents a proposition, for example - how many touchdowns will be scored in the Super Bowl? - and you can bet on the total number of touchdowns scored.
What Was The First Super Bowl Prop Bet?
Super Bowl prop bets have been around for over 30 years now, with Super Bowl 20 between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots widely considered the Super Bowl where prop bets were born. One Las Vegas casino decided to list a market on whether or not Chicago defensive linesman (and pop culture sensation) William 'The Refrigerator' Perry would score a touchdown during the game. This 'proposition' is considered by Super Bowl betting historians to be the original Super Bowl prop bet.
Oh and in case you're wondering, The Fridge did indeed score a touchdown.
Just over thirty years later and Super Bowl prop bets have become a traditional part of the event. Bookmakers now offer odds on an incredible (actually, ridiculous is a better word) range of propositions. From the coin toss, to the length/duration of the pre-game national anthem to whether or not a certain celebrity will be seen in the stands not to mention a wonderfully deep menu of statistical markets, prop bets are now very much a part of Super Bowl Sunday.
So if placing a bet on Super Bowl winner or other more traditional markets isn't your thing, then let us introduce you to the wild world of Super Bowl props.
Etc etc. We recommend these props over others because firstly, you can apply sound research and analysis and secondly, bookmakers offer reasonable odds on statistical props such as these.
Then there are Super Bowl props that are primarily for entertainment purposes.