UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Harris Betting Tips & Predictions

UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Harris preview: betting tips and predictions

Preview updated May 14, 2020.

The UFC returns this Sunday for the second time this week. This time we get to see “The Reem” returning to the octagon when he faces Walt Harris on the main card. This is the third consecutive UFC event taking place in Jacksonville, Florida. Eleven great fights are scheduled for this event, and we will provide predictions and betting tips for all of them here at bettingexpert. Without further ado, let’s get straight into our predictions for the fights, starting with the main event.

PART 1: OVEREEM VS. HARRIS PREDICTION

ALISTAIR OVEREEM STATS

“The Demolition Man”

Age: 39. | Height: 193 cm. | Weight: 106 kg. | Reach: 196 cm. | Stance: Orthodox. | Average fighting time: 7:01.

Professional record: 45 wins, 18 losses and 1 NC. | UFC record: 10-7.

Wins: 23 KO/TKO, 17 SUB, 5 DEC. | Losses: 14 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC

Significant strikes landed per minute: 3.54. | Striking accuracy: 62%. | Strikes absorbed per minute: 2.15. | Defence: 59%.

Takedown average per fifteen minutes: 1.39. | Takedown accuracy: 53%. | Takedown defence: 73%. | Submission average per fifteen minutes: 0.9.

LAST FIVE FIGHTS: Loss – Rozenstruik (TKO). | Win – Oleinik (TKO). | Win – Pavlovich (TKO). | Loss – Blaydes (TKO). | Loss – Ngannou (KO).

 

WALT HARRIS STATS

“The Big Ticket”

Age: 36. | Height: 196 cm. | Weight: 114 kg. | Reach: 203 cm. | Stance: Southpaw. | Average fighting time: 6:35.

Professional record: 13 wins, 7 losses and 1 NC. | UFC record: 6-6.

Wins: 13 KO/TKO. | Losses: 2 KO/TKO, 1 SUB, 3 DEC, 1 other.

Significant strikes landed per minute: 2.96. | Striking accuracy: 38%. | Strikes absorbed per minute: 2.68. | Defence: 61%.

Takedown average per fifteen minutes: 0.35. | Takedown accuracy: 33%. | Takedown defence: 76%. | Submission average per fifteen minutes: 0.2.

LAST FIVE FIGHTS: Win – Oleinik (TKO). | Win – Spivac (TKO). | NC – Arlovski. | Win – Spitz (TKO). | Loss – Godbeer (DQ).

 

OVEREEM VS. HARRIS: WHO IS THE BETTER STRIKER?

Both fighters are known for their ability to knock their opponents out. But who has the advantage? Overeem has taken a lot of damage over the years which has resulted in his chin getting weaker. However, he has adopted a more technical and patient style, and as a result, gets hit much less in his fights. When he does get overwhelmed by his opponents he is pretty good at covering up and staying composed with a high guard. Overeem did this multiplie times against Oleinik, where he patiently waited for Oleinik to finish his barrage and finished the fight shortly after.

It does seem like Overeem is well aware of his inability to take big shots, since he has shown great improvement in his striking defence. Harris is a prospect in the heavyweight division and his 100% finish rate kinda speaks for itself. The guy has only won via knockout which makes this an interesting bout. Let’s see how he does against a composed and defensive-oriented Overeem.

Harris is great in the first round but he starts to abandon his combinations as the fight goes on. Harris has never gone the distance and won, which makes you wonder if he’s only truly dangerous in the first two rounds. If that is the case, then Overeem has a solid chance of using his footwork and striking to beat Harris over 25 minutes.

 

GRAPPLING: WHO HAS THE ADVANTAGE?

Harris might have power in his hands, but he is no grappler. He does have a pretty impressive 76% takedown defence, but so does Rozenstruik and Overeem managed to get him to the ground a bunch of times. Overeem definitely has the upper hand in terms of grappling. He has shown good ability to get the fight to the ground as his opponents throw big punches. Harris does compare to Rozenstruik in some negative areas. He starts to fire one shot a time in the late rounds and he mostly throws with his hands. However, Rozenstruik might have better cardio than Harris which opens up another big problem for Walt.

It will be Overeem who has the grappling advantage in this fight. If we can secure a couple of takedowns here and there, like he did against Rozenstruik, it will increase his chances of winning significantly.

 

SUMMARY

ALISTAIR OVEREEM

Advantages for Overeem

• Higher strikes landed per minute average.
• Lower strikes absorbed per minute average.
• Takedown accuracy of 53%.
• Good striking defence.
• 8 cm reach advantage.

Risk factors for Overeem

• Has been knocked out many times.
• His chin isn’t that good.

 

WALT HARRIS

Advantages for Harris

• Is a fast starter.
• 100% of his wins are by KO.
• 76% takedown defence.

Risk factors for Harris

• Reach disadvantage of 8 cm.
• Overeem has good striking defence.
• Starts to lose composure the longer the fight goes.
• Has never gone the distance and won.

 

PREDICTION

A good fight between a legend and a prospect. Those are always interesting fights. However, the winner will be the guy who can avoid the other guy’s big punches and land his own. Overeem is the guy who can do that. He lands more and gets hit less than Harris. Then you also have to factor in the takedowns. Overeem can turn this five round fight into a three round fight if he can land some takedowns. There is the chance that Harris catches him quick, but Walt is no Ngannou. He doesn’t have the same killer instinct or ferocity.

Bettingexpert prediction: Alistair Overeem beats Walt Harris.

pART 2: OVEREEM VS. HARRIS BETTING TIPS

SHOULD WE BET OVEREEM?

In MMA, bet the underdog if you can’t make a solid case for the favorite. Harris has great power but so does every heavyweight. Overeem danced around Rozenstruik for twenty four minutes and got caught with a lucky shot. He had dominated that fight from start to finish. Harris doesn’t have great wrestling and neither does the have the skills to submit Overeem. His only way of winning is via knockout, and Overeem is defensive-minded and has good movement. There are more than one dimension to MMA and Overeem has the advantage in grappling, which is really big.

Since January, the UFC underdog has won 50% of the time in the heavyweight division. Average odds for the underdog have been 2.9. This is an interesting side note and important to keep in mind if betting Overeem.

Overeem is a pretty sizeable favorite with odds 2.40. Since January. Harris is the favorite with odds 1.65.

Betting tip: Pick Alistair Overeem against Walt Harris.

 

There you have it. Our betting tips and prediction for Harris vs Overeem. Check out our preview for the next fight on the card:

NEXT FIGHT: CLAUDIA GADELHA VS ANGELA HILL PREVIEW.