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Analysis | Tuesday, June 11, 2024 7:46 AM (Revised at: Thursday, June 13, 2024 4:37 PM)

History Says.....Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts

History Says.....Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts
England's Harry Kane blasts a penalty over the bar - Associated Press / Alamy Stock Photo

What is the average number of goals scored in a European championship extra time? Are penalty shootouts a matter of luck? Do favourites win more often in penalty shootouts?

In this article:

In this analysis we will look at the average number of goals scored in extra time periods through the history of the European championship. We will also consider how often favourites win extra time periods. Further we will look at how often favourites win penalty shootouts.


But First, bettingexpert’s Free Euro 2024 Betting Guide is out NOW!

The bettingexpert Euro 2024 Betting Guide

WHAT WILL YOU FIND IN THE GUIDE?

Our guide takes a different approach to any other tournament preview. The analysis and insight you’ll find in the document is based on our in-house betting data which goes back decades. This betting data is on the following markets:

  • Match Result (1X2)
  • Handicap Betting
  • Total Goals (Over/Under 2.5)

Using this as a foundation, we’ve split the guide into several different sections:

  • 8 historical tournament  analysis articles
  • 24 team-by-team articles
  • BETSiE projections for every team and group
  • Unique analysis from our experts including exclusive quotes from Mikael Silvestre and John Barnes

For a free copy of the Euro 2024, click the button below:

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Euro Extra Time Average Goals

Extra time periods often witness defensive play. As both teams fatigue, neither desires to concede a decisive goal that could lead to elimination from the tournament.

However, this hasn’t always been the trend. The table below illustrates the average number of goals scored in extra time periods throughout various European championships.

Table 1: Average Goals Scored in Euro Extra Time 

Euro ET Games Ave 90 min Goals Ave ET Goals
1960 1 2.00 1.00
1964 1 2.00 1.00
1968 2 1.00 0.50
1976 3 3.33 1.33
1984 2 1.50 2.00
1992 1 3.00 1.00
1996 5 0.60 0.40
2000 3 1.00 1.00
2004 3 0.67 1.00
2008 3 0.67 1.33
2012 2 0.00 0.00
2016 5 1.20 0.40
2021 8 2.75 0.88
TOTAL 39 1.64 0.74

We can see in the table above that average goals in a match that extends to extra time is just 1.64. This is expected considering the lower the score, the greater the chance of a match extending to extra time.

We can also see that the average number of goals scored in extra time periods has been 0.74 goals, which is the equivalent rate of 2.22 goals per 90 minutes.


Do Favourites Win in Extra time?

First, let’s examine the likelihood of a team winning during extra time. The table below displays the number of extra time periods won by teams with a handicap of at least -0.25 in the Asian handicap market throughout each European championship since 2000. Matches with a +0 handicap have been excluded from this analysis.

Table 2: Euro Extra time and Penalty Shootout results by Asian handicap line since 2000

AH Line ET Games Won ET Draw ET Lost ET Won Pens Lost Pens
-1 2 2 0 0 0 0
-0.75 5 1 2 2 1 1
-0.5 5 2 3 0 1 2
-0.25 7 0 5 2 4 1
TOTAL 19 5 10 4 6 4

Since 2000, favorites have emerged victorious in 5 out of 19 extra time periods. Meanwhile, 10 out of the 19 periods have resulted in a tie, leading to penalty shootouts to determine the winner.

Among matches where the favored team had a handicap of -0.5 goals or higher, they’ve won 5 out of 12 games, while the underdogs have only won 2.

Shifting focus to the World Cup, nations beginning as favorites with a handicap of at least -0.25 in the Asian handicap market have secured victories in only 7 out of 33 extra time periods. Interestingly, 20 out of the 33 periods have concluded in a draw, paving the way for penalty shootouts.

For teams starting as favorites with a handicap of at least -0.5 goals, they’ve won 6 out of 18 extra time periods. On the contrary, underdogs with a handicap of +0.75 or greater in the Asian handicap market have never clinched a victory in a World Cup extra time period.

Table 3: World Cup Extra time and Penalty Shootout results by Asian handicap line since 1998

AH Line ET Games Won ET Draw ET Lost ET Won Pens Lost Pens
-1.5 2 2 0 0 0 0
-1.25 2 1 1 0 0 1
-1 5 1 4 0 3 1
-0.75 1 0 1 0 0 1
-0.5 8 2 5 1 4 1
-0.25 15 1 9 5 7 2
TOTAL* 33 7 20 6 14 6

Do Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts?

Now, let’s examine penalty shootouts. Since the 1998 World Cup, favorites have emerged victorious in 20 out of 30 penalty shootouts across both the World Cup and Euro tournaments.

Notably, although it’s based on a limited sample size, favorites with a handicap of -0.5 or higher have won 9 out of 16 penalty shootouts. It’s not exactly a decisive victory.

Table 4: World Cup and Euro Extra time and Penalty Shootout results by Asian handicap line since 1998

AH Line ET Games Won ET Draw ET Lost ET Won Pens Lost Pens
-1.5 2 2 0 0 0 0
-1.25 2 1 1 0 0 1
-1 7 3 4 0 3 1
-0.75 6 1 3 2 1 2
-0.5 13 4 8 1 5 3
-0.25 22 1 14 7 11 3
TOTAL 52 12 30 10 20 10

We can also see that combined, favourites have won just 12 of 52 extra time periods in the World Cup and European championships since 1998 with underdogs winning 10. A total of 30 of the 52 extra time periods extended to penalties, a rate of 58%.

Further favourites of -0.5 or greater have won 11 of 30 extra time periods, with underdogs of at least +0.5 in the Asian handicap market winning just 3 of the 30.


Conclusion: Favourites Win Penalty Shootouts

As mentioned earlier, despite the limited data, it seems that favorites tend to prevail more frequently in both penalty shootouts and extra time. Yet, considering the small sample sizes, some may argue that this observation could be influenced by confirmation bias.

Moreover, while lesser-ranked nations may perceive reaching a penalty shootout as advantageous, any actual increase in their chances seems to be incidental, if present at all.

Ultimately, superior quality tends to triumph even amidst the pressure of a World Cup extra time or penalty shootout.

For more info, visit BETSiE Euro 2024 Projections!


SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.

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