football | Sunday, December 18, 2022 10:49 AM (Revised at: Monday, December 19, 2022 11:43 AM)

History Says....World Cup 2022 Betting Trends Review

Andrew Brocker

Well, that’s over. A peculiar World Cup that registered plenty of shocks, goals and ultimately a very popular winner.

Prior to the tournament I wrote a bunch of articles looking at historical World Cup betting trends. Now it’s time to take a look back and at taking a look back.

Which trends persisted? Which trends were bucked?

History Says…..Back Warm Weather Nations

History showed that warm weather nations perform better at World Cups played in warm weather locations. In fact, such nations outperform the betting market when playing against nations from moderate or cooler climates.

Read analysis here

Previous to the 2022 World Cup:

Warm weather nations 1X2 betting: +2.69 units (66 matches) for +4.08% ROI
Warm weather nations Asian handicap betting: +4.59 units (66 matches) for +6.95% ROI

2022 World Cup

Warm weather nations 1X2 betting: +37.95 units (25 matches) for +151.8% ROI.
Warm weather nations Asian handicap betting: +3.09 units (25 matches) for +12.36% ROI.

Warm weather nations again exceeded market expectations this World Cup. With Saudi Arabia defeating Argentina, warm weather nations returned a mighty profit in the 1X2 market. All told, warm weather nations compiled a record of 8 wins, 5 draws and 12 losses against moderate or cold weather nations.

But warm weather nations also broke a profit in the Asian handicap market. Together, warm weather nations went 14.5 wins and 10.5 losses in the Asian handicap market this World Cup.

History Says….Bet on Under 2.5 Goals in the Knockout Stage

The knockout stages of major international tournaments are often characterized as low scoring defensive battles. History showed that betting on Under 2.5 goals in the knockout stage of the World Cup had been highly profitable.

Read analysis here

Previous to the 2022 World Cup

Under 2.5 goals in the knockout stage: +16.81 units (90 matches) for +18.77% ROI.

2022 World Cup

Under 2.5 goals in the knockout stage: -6.33 units (15 matches) for -42.2% ROI.

Safe to say the Under 2.5 goals knockout stage angle took a beating this World Cup. It was the first time since the 2010 World Cup that backing under 2.5 goals through the knockout stage failed to return a profit.

All told, 10 of the 15 knockout stage matches finished with Over 2.5 goals scored in regulation time. This was the highest strike rate for Over 2.5 goals since 10 of 15 knockout stage matches finished with at least 3 goals scored in the 1998 World Cup.

Overall, it was a World Cup that saw an average number of goals (in regulation time) of 2.62 goals per match, the highest average since 1998 when 2.65 goals were scored per match.

The knockout stage saw a total of 3.00 goals per match, the highest for the knockout stage since 1974 when the average was also 3.00 goals per knockout stage match.

History Says….Bet the Draw in the Knockout Stage of the World Cup

Similar to backing under 2.5 goals, betting on the Draw through the knockout stage had been profitable heading into the 2022 World Cup.

Read analysis here

Previous to the 2022 World Cup

Backing the Draw in the knockout stage: +20.6 units (90 matches) for +22.9% ROI

2022 World Cup

Backing the Draw in the knockout stage: +0.82 units (15 matches) for +5.47% ROI.

Backing the Draw through the knockout stage again returned a profit. All told 5 of the 15 knockout stage matches finished tied at the end of regulation 90 minutes.

History Says…Bet on Underdogs at the 2022 World Cup

Betting on underdogs in the Asian handicap market had been profitable leading up to the 2022 World Cup. This was particularly the case for large underdogs, those underdogs receiving at least +1 goal in the Asian handicap market.

Read analysis here

Previous to the 2022 World Cup

Backing underdogs with at least +1 goal (AH): +5.62 units (140 matches) for +4,01% ROI.

2022 World Cup

Backing underdogs with at least +1 goal (AH): +0.26 units (28 matches) for +0.93% ROI.

Backing large underdogs once again returned a profit this World Cup, with underdogs listed as a +1 goal underdog or greater going 15 wins, 13 losses in the Asian handicap market.

Underdogs of this size also returned a profit in the 1X2 market, recording 7 wins, 3 draws and 18 losses through the World Cup, returning a profit of +52.98 units, a whopping return of +189%.

History Says….Back Host Nations at the World Cup

Host nations have historically outperformed the betting market at the World Cup. Qatar were an anomaly in that they were a host nation that was competing in their first World Cup (more on that later).

Read analysis here

Previous to the 2022 World Cup

Backing host nations in the 1X2 market: +2.17 units (37 matches) for +5.86% ROI
Backing host nations in the Asian handicap market: +10.01 units (37 matches) for +27.05% ROI.

2022 World Cup

Backing host nation in the 1X2 market: -3 units (3 matches) for -100% ROI.
Backing host nation in the Asian handicap market: -2 units (3 matches) -66.7% ROI.

Qatar didn’t meet expectations of previous host nations. Qatar lost each of their group matches, surrendering 7 goals and scoring just 1.

History Says….Bet On Experience at the World Cup

Experience matters. History showed that nations with greater experience perform better in the market than nations with lesser experience. This was especially the case for nations playing in their first World Cup, as Qatar was in 2022.

Read analysis here

Previous to the 2022 World Cup

Betting against Debut Nations in the 1X2 market: +3.69 units (57 matches) for +6.47% ROI.
Betting against Debut Nations in the Asian handicap market: +8.85 units (57 matches) for +15.53% ROI.
Betting on Nations with a differential of at least 11 World Cup appearances in the 1X2 market: +7.61 units (74 matches) for +10.28% ROI
Betting on nations with a differential of at least 11 World Cup appearances in the Asian handicap market: +4.33 units (74 matches) for +5.85% ROI.
Betting on nations with a differential on at least 50 World Cup matches played in the 1X2 market: +7.34 units (77 matches) for +9.53% ROI.
Betting on nations with a differential of at least 50 World Cup matches played in the Asian handicap market: +1.98 units (77 matches) for +2.57% ROI.

2022 World Cup

Betting against Qatar in the 1X2 market: +2.13 units (3 matches) for +71% ROI.
Betting against Qatar in the Asian handicap market: +1.84 units (3 matches) for +61.3% ROI.
Betting on nations with a differential of at least 11 World Cup appearances in the 1X2 market: -0.36 units (12 matches) for -3% ROI.
Betting on nations with a differential of at least 11 World Cup appearances in the Asian handicap market: -2.03 units (12 matches) for -16.92% ROI.
Betting on nations with a differential on at least 50 World Cup matches played in the 1X2 market: -0.24 units (17 matches) for -1.41% ROI.
Betting on nations with a differential of at least 50 World Cup matches played in the Asian handicap market: +0.83 units (17 matches) for +4.88% ROI.

As previously noted, Qatar were horrendous as hosts to back at the World Cup. On the other hand, betting against them as a debut nation turned out to be very profitable.
Unlike previous World Cups, nations with a distinct advantage in World Cup appearance experience, did not return a profit this World Cup in the 1X2 market and Asian handicap market.

Nations with a distinct advantage in matches played at the World Cup, did return a slight profit in the Asian handicap market but failed to do so in the 1X2 market.

History Says….Bet Against Top Ranked FIFA Nations at the World Cup

This was a quirky one. History showed that betting against nations in the top 5 of the FIFA rankings entering the World Cup had been profitable. For the 2022 World Cup, this include the following nations:

Brazil
Belgium
Argentina
France
England

Read analysis here

Prior to the 2022 World Cup

Betting against top 5 ranked FIFA nations in the 1X2 market: +23.6 units (95 matches) for +24.84% ROI.
Betting against top 5 ranked FIFA nations in the Asian handicap market: +1.23 units (95 matches) for +1.29% ROI,

2022 World Cup

Betting against top 5 ranked FIFA nations in the 1X2 market: +31.73 units (23 matches) for +138% ROI
Betting against top 5 ranked FIFA nations in the Asian handicap market: -4.72 units (23 matches) for -20.5% ROI.

Betting against the top 5 ranked FIFA nations returned a profit in the 1X2 market this World Cup, thanks again to Saudi Arabia’s upset win over Argentina. Results were not as favourable in the Asian handicap market.

History Says….Bet Against Defending Champions

Over the last 20 years it has not only been profitable to bet against defending champions at the World Cup, but also at the Euros.

Read analysis here

Prior to the 2022 World Cup

Betting against defending World Cup champions in the 1X2 market: +50.23 units (24 matches) for +209.3% ROI.
Betting against defending World Cup champions in the Asian handicap market: +9.16 units (24 matches) for +38.2% ROI.

2022 World Cup

Betting against the defending World Cup champion in the 1X2 market: +0.38 units (7 matches) for +.5.43% ROI.
Betting against the defending World Cup champion in the Asian handicap market: -3.9 units (7 matches) for -55.7% ROI.

While France ran all the way to the World Cup, betting against them in the 1X2 market still managed to return a profit, thanks to their one loss to Tunisia at the close of the group stage.

Betting against France in the Asian handicap market did not turn out so well, with a loss of -3.9 units recorded. France compiled a total of 5.5 wins and 1.5 losses in the Asian handicap market, the best Asian handicap win rate for a defending World Cup champion in the modern betting era (since 1998).

History Says….Stay Away from the Front of the Market

History showed that teams listed at odds shorter than 10.0 heading into the World Cup underperformed against the market.

For the 2022 World Cup this included the following nations:

Brazil
France
England
Argentina
Spain

Read analysis here

Prior to the 2022 World Cup

Betting against front market nations in the 1X2 market: +21.81 units (74 matches) for +29.47% ROI.
Betting against front market nations in the Asian handicap market: +11.02 units (74 matches) for +14.89%.

2022 World Cup

Betting against front market nations in the 1X2 market: +33.57 units (24 matches) for +139.9% ROI.
Betting against front market nations in the Asian handicap market: -5.37 units (24 units) for -22.38% ROI.

Once again we see Saudi Arabia’s win over Argentina saving the day. Betting against favoured teams in the outright market did return a profit in the 1X2 market but failed to do so in the Asian handicap market this World Cup.

History Says….Back Profitable World Cup qualification nations

History showed that nations who were profitable to back at even stakes through World Cup qualification were profitable to back in the World Cup proper when facing nations who were unprofitable to back through qualification.

Read analysis here

Prior to the 2022 World Cup

Backing profitable World Cup qualification nations in the 1X2 market: +18.1 units (84 matches) for +21.5% ROI.
Backing profitable World Cup qualification nations in the Asian handicap market: +16.205 units (84 matches) for +19.3% ROI.

2022 World Cup

Backing profitable World Cup qualification nations in the 1X2 market: +8.88 units (35 matches) for +25.37% ROI.
Backing profitable World Cup qualification nations in the Asian handicap market: -1.295 units (35 matches) for -3.7% ROI.

All told, nations that were profitable through qualification returned a nice profit of +8.88 units in the 1X2 market this World Cup, winning 11 of 35 matches played against nations that were not profitable through qualification.

Results were not so favourable in the Asian handicap market, with profitable qualification nations failing to return a profit. All told, they were 17.5 wins, 17.5 losses for a strike rate of bang on 50% this World Cup.

Final Analysis: +25.9% Profit

So how did we go in total? If we had backed every one of these angles at even stakes, i.e £1 per wager, we would have seen a profit of +92.235 units from a total of 356 units staked.

In other words, a profit of £92.235 from £356 wagered for a ROI of +25.9%.

Of course, a large portion of this profit is thanks to backing Saudi Arabia to defeat Argentina in the 1X2 market.

Which teams were the best to bet on at this World Cup?

Saudi Arabia was the best nation to back in the 1X2 market. Thanks to their win over Argentina, the Saudi’s returned a profit of +30.53 from their 3 matches played. All told, 14 nations returned a profit on the 1X2 market:

Saudi Arabia, +30.53
Japan, +10.64
Australia, +7.77
Cameroon, +7.23
Morocco, +6.83
Costa Rica, +4.86
Tunisia, +3.38
France, +2.61
Iran, +1.07
Senegal, +0.92
Switzerland, +0.63
South Korea, +0.31
Argentina, +0.20
Portugal, +0.12

In Asian handicap betting, France was the best nation to back at the 2022 World Cup. France went 5.5 handicap wins from their 7 matches played. All told, 14 nations returned a profit in Asian handicap betting: