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mixed-martial-arts | Friday, July 29, 2022 7:15 AM (Revised at: Monday, August 1, 2022 12:55 AM)

UFC 277 Picks: End of the Line for Derrick Lewis

UFC 277 Picks: End of the Line for Derrick Lewis
Contributor: ZUMA Press, Inc. / Alamy Stock Photo

UFC 277 Picks: Saturday, July 30th

We have another exciting MMA weekend with UFC 277, and whilst we already have best bets for Julianna Pena vs Amanda Nunes and Brandon Moreno vs Kai Kara-France, there is more betting value to be had in this event. I’ve got 2 more value selections ready and waiting for this Saturday night, so don’t miss out! Read the article below for my Previews and Picks for UFC 277!

In this article:

Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich Preview & Pick

At 37 years of age, Derrick Lewis has created a very impressive MMA career. 26 wins, 9 losses and 13 knockouts, including some big names he has taken down, like Marcin Tybura, Francis Ngonnau, Alexander Volkov, Ilir Latifi, and Blagoy Ivanov. That said, Lewis has suffered 2 KO losses in the past year, and is coming off a brutal elbow KO at the hands of Tai Tuivasa. Derrick Lewis was never a complete overall fighter, with lacklustre cardio, and mediocre grappling. The one thing he always had was immense power in his hands, which is why he holds the UFC record for most KO wins. But he is now facing an equally dangerous opponent who is just now rising in the rankings.

Sergei Pavlovich is just now making a name for himself among the heavyweights and is currently the 11th fighter in the division. Having suffered a TKO loss to Alistair Overeem way back in 2018, Pavlovich has since won all 3 of his fights, and all by TKO, with the latest one coming in March of this year. Pavlovich is a physical specimen in the division, with a height of 1.91 metres and a reach of 213 centimetres. For reference, Lewis has a reach of just 201 centimetres. This is a huge advantage in the cage and I don’t expect Lewis to be able to compensate. He is facing an equally dangerous knockout artist with a huge reach advantage, better cardio and fewer years under his belt. Sergei Pavlovich gets the job done by KO/TKO, but since the odds in this market are at just 1.95, I’m going with a straight-up win at 1.78 odds.

  • Selection: Sergei Pavlovich to Win
  • Best Odds: 1.79
  • Stakes: 7/10

Odds as at 3:00 pm July 29th 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Pavlovich Tips

Joselyne Edwards vs Ji Yeon Kim Preview & Pick

Joselyne Edwards is stepping in on 2 weeks’ notice to fight Ji Yeon Kim, for which she will have to cut 20 pounds. This is definitely an interesting fight with some moving parts, but this is exactly why we are taking it. Kim was scheduled to fight Mariya Agapova at UFC 277, but her opponent was forced to pull out due to a knee injury. Let’s face it, Kim’s record has taken a hit recently, winning just 1 of her last 5 fights, but there’s a silver lining. Her last 2 fights were absolute thrillers against Priscila Cachoeira and Molly McCann where Ji Yeon Kim looked very impressive. She is coming into this fight after a full training camp, and if her last 2 fights are any indication, we should see her best version on Saturday night.

On the other side, we have Joselyne Edwards, the 26-year-old fighter with a record of 11 wins and 4 losses. If this fight were scheduled months ago, I would have no problem backing either fighter or would even lean towards Edwards a bit. She is taller, has a bigger reach, and can keep her opponents at a distance using her long arms and kicks. She has a lot of knockout power, with 5 career KO/TKO wins, and in a parallel universe, she would be a great pick. However, she is taking this fight on short notice and has to drop a lot of weight. I’m not even certain she can get it done, but even if she makes weight, how will she perform whilst dehydrated and drained? The major of bettors on Tapology are picking Edwards to win this one, but I’m backing the underdog to get it done at smaller stakes.

  • Selection: Ji Yeon Kim to Win
  • Best Odds: 2.10 (Bet365)
  • Stakes: 2/10

Odds as at 3:00 pm July 29th 2022. Odds may now differ.

More Joselyne Edwards vs Ji Yeon Kim Tips

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