Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/13/25

The second preview of the day from the BNP Paribas Open comes from the Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo match.

Cerundolo’s win probability is just above 10%, while Alcaraz is favoured to win at 1.08 odds. The handicap is 5.5 games and the total games line is 19.5.

Jon Reid’s Alcaraz vs Cerundolo prediction is for the match to be wrapped up quickly.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo Prediction: Top Player in Field to Trounce Argentine Foe

• Prediction: Under 19.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.84
• Bookmaker: Unibet
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 12:00 pm UK Time on March 13th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Despite the rankings, with Jannik Sinner currently banned from playing, Alcaraz is by far and away the most talented player on the ATP Tour. Thus, it goes without saying, the talent edge here is clearly on the Spaniard’s side.

Now, why is the under in this spot showing value rather than just being the right number? A lot of that stems from his dominance at this tournament and the conditions they’re playing in.

Look, Cerundolo obviously prefers slower courts as well, but while  he should benefit from the additional time these hard courts afford players more than most others, Alcaraz gains more from playing on a slower court than anyone on tour.

He’s more athletic, more explosive and even his weakness of sometimes spraying errors doesn’t occur nearly as much as Cerundolo and the best shot on court is his forehand while the worst is Cerundolo’s backhand.

Let’s also keep in mind that we’d like to see a lopsided set in at least one of the two played to keep this match under 19.5 games, and Alcaraz is the best returner in this field, posting up lopsided sets with ease. Cerundolo, meanwhile, is coming off a match that saw him face 14 break points and be broken three times.

We’ll go over the rest of his path to the quarterfinals in a minute, but needless to say, it hasn’t been all that impressive.

More tennis previews can be found on the expert insights page.

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

As one of the best players in the world, it’s no surprise that Alcaraz has been dominant this season, only losing twice. Once to the greatest player of all time at one of his best tournaments (Novak Djokovic at the Australian Open) and then to Jiri Lehecka in Doha in a three-set affair.

Other than that, he’s torn his way through Indian Wells, winning all three matches by six games or more (including matches against an in form Denis Shapovalov and a top-20 Grigor Dimitrov – though the latter was likely below 100% physically) and of course he won the title in Rotterdam in February.

Overall, record on the year sits at 14-2 and when we look at matches played in slower conditions (this match also takes place at night, making the task even more daunting for his opposition), that record becomes 10-1.

Best of luck to anyone trying to stop the runaway train that is Alcaraz.

Francisco Cerundolo Recent Form

I don’t think anything could represent why Cerundolo is ranked 26th in the world (now 24th in the live rankings) than his start to 2025.

He’s yet to win a tournament, but he’s still racked up the wins. A final at a 250 here, quarterfinal at a 500 there, now the second week at an extended Masters event in California.

That is going to accumulate points, but the lack of trophies ultimately comes down to how he’s played. Despite plenty of wins, his backhand is pretty darn bad and his lack of point construction can be incredibly frustrating. His serve and forehand are good enough to get him along, but the rest of his game lacks and caps his progression at this ranking range.

His serve was under constant pressure against Alex de Minaur, he was incredibly unimpressive for two sets against a poor Mackenzie McDonald on a slow court that favoured him, his lone convincing win came against Botic van de Zandschulp – a player much worse than he at the moment – and he was head-shakingly bad in his losses to Alexandre Muller and Laslo Djere in South America.

This is a big step up in terms of talent and I don’t trust him in the least in this spot.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Francisco Cerundolo H2H – Stat of the Match

The head-to-head here is 1-1, but let’s dig into those matches a bit more. For starters, if we wanted to be simplistic about it, both matches went under a 19.5-game total.

More importantly, however, is the context that must be applied to those contests. The Cerundolo win came on the ITF Tour all the way back in…2019. That meant Alcaraz was still a child at the time of that match. Beware of anyone trying to use Cerundolo having beaten him before as justification to bet on him in this match. It’s a dishonest narrative.

The other happened last summer on grass where things are much quicker and Alcaraz still won 6-1, 7-5.

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