Roberto Carballes Baena vs Jordan Thompson Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/14/25

A new week of tennis brings a new slate of tournaments. To start the week, let’s look at the ATP 500 Barcelona Open and Roberto Carballes Baena vs Jordan Thompson.

Thompson’s win probability is only 42%, while Carballes Baena is favoured to win at 1.63 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Carballes Baena vs Thompson is for Carballes Baena to win.

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Jordan Thompson Prediction: Spaniard Should be Larger Favourite in Slow Conditions

• Prediction: Carballes Baena to win & Carballes Baena -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 1.63 & 1.90
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 2:30 am UK Time on April 14th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

Think this is pretty simple for me on the handicap. Just trust the much better clay court player who has had a pretty good season and has the ability on return to neutralise Thompson’s first serve – which isn’t exactly playing in favourable conditions anyhow.

No, Carballes Baena didn’t look very good the last time he took the court in Marrakech. That day, however, he played a strong serving clay court natural who was in really good form. It was also a semifinal, meaning Carballes Baena had won several matches at the event prior to the loss. Finally, Darderi is quoted as saying it was the best he’d ever played in a semifinal. Hard to hold that against Carballes Baena all that much.

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Roberto Carballes Baena Recent Form

I alluded to a fairly strong week at his first tournament back on the red stuff in Morocco a few weeks back.

Is there a slight concern he didn’t end up playing in Monte Carlo? Sure. That said, I think if that’s the sole reason the market is shortening on his opponent (and it would appear to be the only logical one in my mind), I think we’re seeing bettors go too far over an assumption that he may not be fit.

I’m content backing the world No. 57 playing in conditions far more favourable to him and his game than his opponent’s when I’m getting over 1.60 odds to do so and I only have to give up a 2.5-game head start.

Jordan Thompson Recent Form

This is a surface that has not been kind to Thompson and one he’s not fond of himself. Since the start of the 2022 season, Thompson has a record of just 6-16. This season hasn’t been much better. Losing to Ethan Quinn (albeit on quicker clay in Houston) isn’t a good result. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard is a one-trick pony with his serve and Thompson managed to beat him in slow conditions and then he did take a set from Stefanos Tsitsipas, but was summarily beaten from that point forward.

The game is one of the more surface-dependent in tennis with his preference obviously being to play on quicker hard courts and grass. Barcelona is nearer the opposite end of the spectrum in terms of court speeds.

Roberto Carballes Baena vs Jordan Thompson H2H – Stat of the Match

The only prior meeting between Carballes Baena and Thompson was back in 2022 and took place on grass. Thompson utilised the favourable conditions for him on grass that day to crush the Spaniard at Wimbledon.

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