Felix Auger Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, 4/15/25

Our second article of the day also comes from the ATP500 BMW Open in Munich, as we look into Felix Auger Aliassime vs Mariano Navone.

Navone’s win probability is around 43%, while Auger Aliassime is favoured to win at 1.72 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 22.5.

Jon Reid’s Auger Aliassime vs Navone prediction is for Auger Aliassime to win.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Mariano Navone Prediction: Market Giving Clay Courter Too Much Love

• Prediction: Auger Aliassime to win & Auger Aliassime -2 Games
• Best Odds: 1.72 & 1.93
• Bookmaker: SX Betting Exchange & Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10 & 2/10

Odds as at 12:45 am UK Time on April 15th, 2025. Odds may now differ.

I think a lot of people are going to be tempted here by Navone seeing as the Argentine is the more natural player on clay. I will concede that, but I think there’s more to a handicap of any given match, and just about everything else points to the Canadian in this spot.

First, there’s the obvious talent gap. Auger Aliassime is the superior player. He has the bigger serve, the bigger weapons from the baseline and is far more successful at higher level tournaments on the main tour.

The second is the slight elevation probably helping him a bit more than Navone, with his first serve probably netting him a few more cheap points.

Finally, I do think that despite being strong on clay, one must look at Navone’s form (which I’ll do in a second) and why he’s been struggling. I’m simply not convinced he’s anywhere near his best and he’s had far too many matches this season where his patented solidity has abandoned him from the baseline.

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Felix Auger Aliassime Recent Form

It’s funny how things change in a week. It also points out how important price is when betting (it’s the single most important factor). Just last week, I correctly pointed out that the world No. 19 was overvalued against Altmaier. Now, that was not only because the big German’s ceiling on clay is higher than someone like Navone’s, but also because Auger Aliassime’s price was in the 1.36 range.

Now, against a player that hasn’t played well in about a year and who Auger Aliassime can push around – even on clay – we’re seeing him on the other side of 1.70? That seems like a big jump to me, especially since these are not the slow conditions of Monte Carlo (the slowest stop court speed wise on the ATP Tour).

We don’t have a load of clay form to go on for the Canadian, but the 2025 season has gone decently as a whole, and with his unforced error count the only real concern in a matchup like this, I’m happy to back him at odds that don’t make him too large of a favourite.

Mariano Navone Recent Form

Made mention earlier about the relatively shaky form of the 24-year-old heading into this tournament. In fact, the 250 level event in his native Argentina’s capital of Buenos Aires is the only time that Navone has won multiple main draw matches at an ATP Tour level tournament since this week last year in Bucharest.

That is a long time without much tour level success (worth noting that he did win a Challenger tournament on clay in early May 2024).

His game has gone from being rock solid, yet underpowered with a strong backhand to adding more aggression and pop on the forehand back to looking a tad weak on that wing and also being pretty error prone fairly regularly

He isn’t close to the player that broke into the top-30 at one point in 2024 and it won’t be long until he’s back outside of the top-100 if he doesn’t turn things around soon (he begins this week No. 86 in the live rankings with that Challenger title to defend in less than a month).

If he was at his best and his backhand was clicking, the forehand was still able to hold its own and he was still the elite defensive backboard from the baseline that we’ve seen in the past, I’d be more hesitant to back Auger Aliassime at these numbers. As it stands, he looks more like a Challenger Tour player right now taking on a guy that has his issues, but is certainly a top-25 to top-30 player and mainstay on the main circuit.

Felix Auger Aliassime vs Mariano Navone H2H – Stat of the Match

This is the first time Auger Aliassime and Navone have squared off with one another.

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