Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Prediction, Odds, Stats, Form, H2H, 3/14/24

Zverev’s win probability sits at 32.7% while Alcaraz is favored to win at 1.42 odds. The handicap is 3.5 games and the total games line is 22.5. Our Alcaraz vs Zverev prediction is for a close match, but not one that should be bet on. The over would be the most tempting wager, but a pass would be best.

It’s an Australian Open rematch and marquee matchup from Tennis Paradise in the quarterfinal round of the ATP draw. Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev sets up the chance for the phenom from Spain to avenge his loss down under in what should be the biggest match of the day of all the tennis in Indian Wells.

Jon Reid has value tennis picks and predictions every day on our Expert Insights section, so be sure to come back tomorrow for more!

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev Prediction: Big Tilt Could Provide Fireworks Once More

The defending BNP Paribas Open champion should be right at home in the slower conditions on offer in the Californian desert.

Zverev should also feel comfortable in slower conditions where his grind-it-out style allows him to run more balls down and his big, powerful serve can still do damage.

In fact, if you remember when we advised backing the German in Australia, he was all the way out above 5.00 odds. We can see the market has adjusted significantly, moving his implied probabilities of winning from just below 20% to over 30%.

Considering how much he tends to push the best players in the game, I don’t necessarily disagree with that movement. Still, it’s tough to back him again after a movement of over 10 percentage points in about two months.

Carlos Alcaraz Recent Form

Since dropping the first set he played against an inspired Matteo Arnaldi, Alcaraz has dominated, not having dropped more than three games in a set since that opening tiebreak.

Now, Zverev is a much tougher opponent than the likes of Arnaldi, Felix Auger Aliassime, or Fabian Marozsan. However, this form is still a great sign for Alcaraz and his fans after his trip to South America that saw him lose to Nicolas Jarry on clay and then retire just a few games into his match against Thiago Monteiro.

We know that with his incredibly aggressive style and tendency to hammer away at his groundstrokes, Alcaraz can dazzle crowds (his ability to do all that while on the run just makes it even more impressive) and that he’s one of the best players in the world because of that.

The thing is, we also know that every few matches, he can commit a boatload of unforced errors that make him vulnerable to an upset

With Zverev’s defensive prowess, elite backhand, and strong rally tolerance, he can nudge Alcaraz toward that more undisciplined, impatient style.

Alexander Zverev Recent Form

Speaking of really good players with well-rounded games that throw up stinkers once in a while, Zverev himself is prone to some head-shakingly poor mistakes in neutral rallies – especially on that forehand wing.

The difference is he doesn’t have that raw power that allows him to bully his opposition from the baseline.

Those silly mistakes are the reason guys like Daniel Altmaier and Jordan Thompson were able to pull off gargantuan upsets of Zverev in Mexico.

His talent also led him to the Australian Open semifinals and this stage of what is sometimes deemed as the “fifth slam.”

Trying to predict which Zverev is going to show up on the day can be a fool’s errand. That’s why I prefer dealing in probabilities, and with him given a one-in-three chance to do the job here, I have no qualms with the way the market has priced this up.

Carlos Alcaraz vs Alexander Zverev H2H – Stat of the Match

Zverev has won five of the eight meetings between the two, but since the start of the 2023 campaign, it’s been a dead-locked 2-2 series.

Alcaraz found a pair of quick wins in Madrid and New York last year, while Zverev won the aforementioned matchup down under, while also claiming victory in the year-end finals.

Regardless, the head-to-head matchups of the past certainly back up the expectation of a fun one on Thursday.

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