Alejandro Tabilo vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction, Picks, Odds, H2H, August 8th

Thursday in Montreal brings us another good number of ATP matches from the National Bank Open or in the local language, Omnium Banque Nationale. Let’s look at Alejandro Tabilo vs Lorenzo Sonego. Our Tabilo vs Sonego prediction at 2.04 odds is available below. 

Sonego’s win probability is only 40%, while Tabilo is favored to win at 1.59 odds. The handicap is two games and the total games line is 23.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Lorenzo Sonego Prediction: Tabilo Too Solid for Sonego

• Prediction: Tabilo -2.5 Games
• Best Odds: 2.04
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 4/10

Odds updated at 12:30 am UK Time on August 8th, 2024. 

Though the primary handicap for this match is at two games, I can’t see why the jump from -2 to -2.5 is 15 cents or from 1.89 to 2.04. It’s not the most key number, even in men’s tennis on a hard court and that is a nice discount to move to the -2.5 handicap.

Tabilo is having a much better season, is the better returner of the two, has the more solid backhand, is the better mover and with these two each hitting their forehand crosscourt into the other’s backhand, I trust the Chilean’s to hold up much more than his counterpart in this match.

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Alejandro Tabilo Recent Form

Having made a final this year on the main tour on every single surface, Tabilo is finally starting to put it all together. A strong serve, those lefty angles that bother so many people and the ability to get around the court well for his size.

He also added a high-level Challenger title on clay and a Masters 1000 semifinal in Rome, in which he was on the precipice of upsetting eventual champion Alexander Zverev to set up an all-Chilean final against Nicolas Jarry.

He suffered a three-match losing skid against Taylor Fritz (a much better grass court player) at Wimbledon, Matteo Berrettini (a monster server) in the altitude of Kitzbuhel, and then to a redlining aggressive Roman Safiullin at the Olympic Games.

The key was only one of those losses was particularly lopsided, and he rebounded well winning his opening match in Montreal, beating Frances Tiafoe as an underdog, and doing so in dominant fashion.

He should be able to carry on against an even less imposing opponent in this one.

Lorenzo Sonego Recent Form

Sonego enters this match in half-decent form. He made his second quarterfinal at the main tour level of the 2024 season back in Umag, before winning his first match here against Tallon Griekspoor.

Now, Umag is a less competitive clay courter tournament and Griekspoor is one of the worst returners in the top 100 of the ATP rankings. Still, it’s progress for Sonego, relative to his less successful earlier season exploits.

Sonego has a decent first serve and forehand combination, but he can be erratic at times and his backhand is subpar to say the least.

I’m not sold on him winning this match 40% of the time, and when he does lose, I’m not sure how often he keeps it as close as the handicap would suggest against a lefty with a decent combination of power and athleticism who is having a breakout type year.

Alejandro Tabilo vs Lorenzo Sonego H2H – Stat of the Match

Perhaps the fact that Sonego won the only prior meeting between these two on a hard court is influencing this price. I’m not sure how much a match from a tournament taking place the week before a grand slam nearly two years ago would be pertinent – especially with the improvements made this year by Tabilo – but many people do like to heavily weigh the prior meetings between players into their handicaps.

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