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Tennis | Monday, March 20, 2023 10:30 AM

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Miami, Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Maximilian Marterer

Monday Tennis Best Bet: ATP Miami, Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Maximilian Marterer
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Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Maximilian Marterer Best Bet: Monday, March 20th

Well that was an absolute no-show from Zhizhen Zhang, as Alexander Bublik cruised through their match on Friday.

Monday brings the first day of qualifiers for the men in Miami, as another Masters 1000 event takes centre stage.

We’ll delve into the matchup between Aleksandar Kovacevic and Maximilian Marterer for our Monday selection!

In this article:

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Maximilian Marterer Preview

March 20th, 19:30 (UK Time)

It’s been a fine eight-month period for the American, who has made a slew of Challenger Tour semifinals, picking up a pair of titles in the opening quarter of the 2023 season to boot.

The form is clearly there for Kovaceivc, who has improved his one-handed backhand in a big way to go with his strong first serve and powerful forehand.

The primary issue I have with him in this spot, is that he hasn’t really shown the ability to win off quicker surfaces. When his power is somewhat blunted, and he isn’t quite as comfortable, the results haven’t been as reliable.

His lone performance on slower courts at Indian Wells a few weeks ago was a loss in straight sets to Marcos Giron, where his compatriot was the much better player throughout.

To further complicate things, he played a decent amount of tennis in Phoenix at a Challenger last week. First, he had to come through qualifiers, then made a run to the quarterfinals, playing a total of five matches, with four going three sets (and the fifth being a 22-game straight setter).

As for Marterer, the German has more experience on clay and plays with more topspin, making his game a bit more reassuring when it comes to a slower surface and in conditions that may be very humid, which also slows things down and has the ball travelling through the air much more slowly.

It’s tough to justify Kovacevic as a favourite on slower hard courts at this point, just because he’s fared well in quicker conditions. To me, there’s an overvaluation in the betting markets on the former collegiate player, and I’ll look to take advantage.

Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Maximilian Marterer Best Bet

Much like we saw at Indian Wells, players here are going to be valued for their overall hard-court play and form. With conditions in Miami also differing from most hard-court events, we should find matches to oppose players who may be in form, but who may not fare particularly well in these conditions.

Kovacevic fits that bill for me. He was out in straight sets a few weeks ago in Indian Wells, and in Miami with slow courts and humidity in the air slowing things down further, his front-foot, attacking style of tennis shouldn’t be as effective.

I’m happy to back Marterer, who has a big serve of his own, but also has more experience winning in slower conditions and can play the extended rallies with more topspin and margin for error.

  • Selection: Marterer to win
  • Best Odds: 2.20 (Pinnacle)
  • Stakes: 4/10

Odds as at 3:30 am UK Time on March 20th, 2023. Odds may now differ.

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