Alex Molcan vs Hugo Grenier Prediction, Stats, Form, H2H, March 5th 2024

.Our second look at qualifying at the BNP Paribas Open also comes from the ATP draw. We have a match that shouldn’t be priced as close as it is. I’ll explain why Alex Molcan vs Hugo Grenier is showing a bit of value.

Grenier’s win probability is 48.3% while Molcan is favoured to win at 1.77 odds. The handicap is one game and the total games line is 22.5.

For more daily tennis tips, visit the bettingexpert community, but if you want more expert tips from Jon Reid, visit our Expert Insights section.

Our Molcan vs Grenier prediction is for Molcan to win.

In this article:

• Alex Molcan vs Hugo Grenier Prediction
• Alex Molcan  Recent Form
• Hugo Grenier  Recent Form
• Alex Molcan vs Hugo Grenier H2H Stat of the Match
• Safer Gambling

---

Alex Molcan vs Hugo Grenier Prediction

• Prediction: Molcan to win
• Best Odds: 1.77
• Bookmaker: Pinnacle
• Stakes: 3/10

Odds as at 1:00 pm UK Time on March 5th, 2024. Odds may now differ.

Put simply, this feels like a rather large overreaction to Grenier’s win on Monday against a clearly still-ailing Hamad Medjedovic. Now, had that win seen the Serbian play at his level and Grenier still came away with the victory, I’d say differently, but the youngster hadn’t played since the Australian Open and didn’t look as though he was fully fit in his return.

Grenier has looked a bit better this season than last so far, but he’s still lacking weapons from the baseline and with the grittier courts here likely to eat up some pace on his first serves and Molcan being a competent slow-court player and decent returner, I’m going to have to take the Slovak to come through this one.

Read on for more expert insights.

---

Alex Molcan  Recent Form

It wasn’t the hottest start to 2024 for the former top-40 lefty. In fact, he still doesn’t have a really strong win or a victory in the main draw of a tour level event yet this season.

Luckily for him (and us), this is another qualifying match, he’s playing a Challenger Tour player and he has looked better in recent weeks.

Heck, as much as I’d like to deride his form, it’s really tough to fault him for losses to a surging Sumit Nagal, red-hot Federico Coria or borderline tour level clay courters in Felipe Meligeni and Daniel Galan.

Since last week, he has also quietly put together a 3-1 record with clay wins against an in-form Facundo Bagnis, tricky clay courter in Marco Cecchinato and then in the opening round here against Benoit Paire – a much stronger version of a first-serve oriented Frenchman.

He plays a pretty consistent style, works the ball around the court well, constructs points intelligently and can take the ball down the line off either wing to keep his opponents on their toes, flip control of points or even hit winners against those that don’t move as swiftly as he does (Grenier would certainly fall into that camp).

Given the fact that we’re playing on courts that reward all of those and probably take a bit away from his opposition’s primary strength, I have him as a much larger favourite than the market does here.

Hugo Grenier Recent Form

After reaching the top-100 in the latter stages of the 2022 season, Grenier dropped off big time last year.

That’s why qualifying for the Australian Open and a pair of 250 events in Marseille and Doha (the latter saw him win a round in the main draw as well) is probably a sight for sore eyes for the 27-year-old.

Grenier plays what I’d categorise as a “serve-and-push” style, using his height to generate plenty of pop behind his first serve, but playing a much less powerful and aggressive game once playing from the baseline.

That style can be very effective (just ask one Hubert Hurkacz) since it means fewer unforced errors, while also generating some cheap points, but it has its drawbacks as well.

It makes one vulnerable when the serve isn’t as potent and when one plays more consistent players from the baseline where you need to find ways to finish points on your own since they aren’t likely to commit too many errors. Molcan is exactly that type of opponent.

Finally, the other concern is the relatively weak Grenier backhand. Not only is it more prone to breaking down under normal circumstances, but against a lefty like Molcan, he’ll be playing crosscourt exchanges on that side with the Molcan forehand. That is certainly a matchup disadvantage for him, especially since Molcan plays that shot with plenty of topspin and isn’t very error-prone.

Alex Molcan vs Hugo Grenier H2H – Stat of the Match

Grenier won the lone meeting back in 2021. It was a fairly close match for a straight sets win, and I’d argue that since 2021, Molcan has established himself as a borderline tour-level pro, while Grenier has had some success at the Challenger Tour and broken the top-100, but never registered with most as someone that plays week-in, week-out at the ATP Tour level.

Our elo ratings in this one also put Molcan ahead, which is odd, since he would probably tell you clay is his best surface, while Grenier wouldn’t hesitate to tell you hard courts are his.

---

SAFER GAMBLING

At bettingexpert, we always take a safe approach to gambling. We’ll never bet more than we can afford or chase losses. For more advice, head to our Safer Gambling hub.